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November 15, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Minnesota Twins Top 10 Prospects

State of the Farm: “If you put your trust in me I'll make bright your day. Look into these eyes now, tell me what you see.”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

1. Byron Buxton
Position: OF
DOB: 12/18/1993
Height/Weight: 6’1’’ 188 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: 1^st round, 2012 draft, Appling County High School (Baxley, GA)
2012 Stats: .216/.324/.466 in rookie GCL (27 games); .286/.368/.429 at rookie-level Elizabethton (21 games)
The Tools: All of them; 8 run; 7+ arm; 6+ raw power; 6+ hit (potential)

What Happened in 2012: Drafted second overall and viewed by many as the top talent in the entire class, Buxton didn’t disappoint in small-sample professional viewing, flashing all the tools that helped secure him a $6 million signing bonus.

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40 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

ljmorris20

Love the new format Jason, I know comps aren't that useful, but reading Sano's profile reminded me of the Brandon Wood "bring me the head" series. Does Sano have better pitch recognition than Wood to survive at higher levels?

Nov 15, 2012 06:01 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

Better approach, yes. Wood was ultra-aggressive, and loved to let it rip. Sano has a better plan and more control of the bat. Of course, that's not to say they couldn't share a similar fate.

Nov 15, 2012 07:48 AM

70Glove

Great job on this one JP. One question about Sano. We all know about the lack of prospects currently in the Minors that have the potential to mash in the middle of a lineup at a first division level. Any discussion of those guys probably starts with Sano. How does this "power void" for lack of a better term, affect Sano's overall value going forward? Could his trade value be at its peak right now, while his swing-and-miss tendencies have yet to have been completely exploited? And most importantly how does the lack of power in the minors right now affect the way you scout and evaluate (not rank) Sano?

Nov 15, 2012 07:24 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

The entire Sano/Buxton debate article (released tomorrow) will focus on the value of power. Great question.

Nov 15, 2012 07:50 AM

terencem

If it's of any consolation to anyone, Eddie Rosario turned into a monster in my OOTP league :)

Nov 15, 2012 07:33 AM

rating: 3

jdmurphy

It seems a bit early to call Chris Parmelee (not Parmalee) "the epitome of replacement-level players." He destroyed Triple-A pitching and will only be 25 in spring training. His struggles in the majors are likely related to the fact he didn't get consistent playing time anywhere and was asked to play RF, something he's hardly ever done in the minors.

Nov 15, 2012 07:35 AM

rating: 0

Nick Faleris

BP staff

The language may be a bit harsh; fair point. But it was a statement made from an evaluative standpoint rather than based on MLB performance. To my mind he doesn't project well to an OF corner, and the bat is good but not impactful. There's a non-zero chance he hits enough to be a second-division starter type, but it will require more growth.

Nov 15, 2012 07:51 AM

DarinRuf18

Two Questions Regarding the Twins List. First of all, once again, you guys continue to provide quality information and the depth of analysis is really second to none.

1.) What made you place Hicks ahead of Arcia?...this one seems to be an on-going debate between who is the better prospect...is it possible that Hicks is the better real-life player while Arcia could be the better fantasy player?

2.) Will Gibson break ST as a member of the starting rotation?...with the departure of Baker, it would seem likely that unless they trade Span and/or Willingham, there could certainly be a spot open for Gibson. Thoughts?

Nov 15, 2012 07:44 AM

rating: 0

Luke in MN

#2 seems like a terrible idea given how fresh off TJ Gibson is and how it would impact his team control. The starting rotation is going to be a disaster next year whether Gibson's on it or not. Might as well give him at least a few months in the minors rather than pushing it.

Nov 15, 2012 17:22 PM

rating: 1

Brandon R. Warne

Local media types seem to suggest Gibson could start the season in the pen to keep his innings in check.

Nov 16, 2012 08:07 AM

rating: 1

DarinRuf18

Im not sure why it seems like a "terrible idea"...what would you rather have him do? Not pitch at all? Pitch in Triple-A? what else does he have left to prove in the minors...and while Im not a Twins fan, if they can somehow sign a Shaun Marcum, and maybe a Carlos Villanueva, and then trade Span to a team like the Braves for Delgado, i dont think a starting rotation of Marcum, Diamond, Delgado, Villanueva, and Gibson would be a "disaster"...certainly would be much much better than the rotations of the Astros, Pirates, Padres, Rockies, Royals, Twins, and Indians from last year.

And they could even explore trading Willingham as well for another starter. Maybe to Texas for Ogando and Perez? or to Seattle for Paxton? or the Rays for Hellickson? Or maybe the Reds for Homer Bailey and Mike Leake?...i think they have a lot of potential options. dont know the financials of any of those, but they were just off the top of my head. Lets say they somehow get Hellickson in addition to those listed above, minus Carlos V....Helly, Marcum, Diamond, Delgado, Gibson...not bad. not saying thats likely, but certainly not completely impossible.

oh, and on April 7th of 2013, Gibson will be a full 19 months removed from TJS. i wouldnt say thats really "fresh off" TJS. im not a doctor, but given my experience playing sports and getting hurt, there is a certain point in every recovery, where you just arent gonna get any better. Considering the advancements we've seen in TJS in recent years, id say 19 months is certainly very close to that point. could be totally wrong though.

Nov 16, 2012 08:58 AM

rating: 1

Luke in MN

He has all of 13 innings pitched post-TJ above rookie-ball level. Who knows what he is at this point?

Nov 17, 2012 10:17 AM

rating: -1

edwinblume

I would love to see some of the discussion around ranking Hicks over Arcia. Arcia's minor league hitting stats would suggest him being the higher ranked one.

Nov 15, 2012 07:52 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

His minor league stats certainly suggest he is a better hitter, but that doesn't make him the better prospect. Hicks still has a lot of upside, and he plays a premium position on the diamond.

Nov 15, 2012 08:06 AM

bheikoop

So Kepler and Harrison are not only Twins but they also appear to be "twins".

Nov 15, 2012 07:52 AM

rating: 2

bheikoop

At two years the senior of Arcia and Rosario, I'm also surprised to see Hicks that high. Is it saying a lot of bad things about the aforementioned duo, or good things about Hicks?

Nov 15, 2012 07:56 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Good things about Hicks. It's the overall profile that helps with the ranking. Hicks can play CF at a high level and he has good secondary skills. That's a sexy combination. Will he get there? Not sure. I will assume Arcia's bat will play better, but Hicks still has the chance to be a bigger impact player because of his position.

Nov 15, 2012 08:04 AM

Mark Anderson

BP staff

I was one of the strongest advocates for Hicks in the #3 spot, though I don't think it took a lot of convincing given his progress at Double-A in 2012 and his up-the-middle profile.

The profile is really the key here. He doesn't have to hit at a monster level to be a contributing big leaguer. Arcia and Rosario are far more dependent on the complete actualization of their offensive potential.

Nov 15, 2012 08:18 AM

bheikoop

By the way...Coming around on the new style/set up. Giving me a bit more work to do, but there certainly is more information. Not sure I prefer it, but it's beginning to at least work for me. Good job.

Nov 15, 2012 09:16 AM

rating: 1

Matt Commins

Jason,

Under "The Tools" section for Sano it says "The Tools: 8 raw;" You mean 8 raw power right?

Nov 15, 2012 08:29 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Yep. 8 raw power

Nov 15, 2012 08:38 AM

Matt Commins

Apologies for my sticklerness; noticed sometimes it says raw and other times it says raw power.

Nov 15, 2012 08:43 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Yeah, if you check the primer at the top of the page, there is a glossary of terms. It means the same thing. Sometimes I just use raw and sometimes I add the power after the raw. I like to keep it fresh.

Nov 15, 2012 08:49 AM

Klochner

Levi Michael a sunk cost at this point?

Nov 15, 2012 08:34 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I received utility futures on him, and those were optimistic.

Nov 15, 2012 08:39 AM

Nick Faleris

BP staff

I guess it depends on what you were expecting out of Michael. I was shocked by some of Michael's hype leading up to the draft -- he is and always has been a guy that can do a little bit of everything in the infield but doesn't really stand out for any of it. Runs well, some secondary skills at the plate, but nothing jumps out as impact. I could see a utility future as Jason points out; is that a disappointment?

Nov 15, 2012 08:47 AM

suterhawk

For a first round pick on a team that has gone decades without a SS...yes.

Nov 18, 2012 13:08 PM

rating: 0

timber

Man, it's a bummer when your only top talents under 25 who are actually in the majors are Ben Revere and Liam Hendricks.

Nov 15, 2012 08:43 AM

rating: 5

Luke in MN

It's pretty clear that the MLB team remains in rebuilding gear for the near future, but the good news is that the effort seems to be working. Once this top-ten is major-league ready, they should be a strong core for a contending team. The Twins should add to that core with a high pick in next year's draft and, I would bet, a trade or two of our current MLB outfielders.

Nov 15, 2012 17:16 PM

rating: 1

NL2003

Prophetic, Luke. Although I'm guessing not the two OF you may have guessed.

Dec 28, 2012 20:21 PM

rating: 0

surlycooper

How is Levis Michael's "grit-factor"? Would you describe him as "scrappy", or is he more of a "dirt-bag" type? I'm really hoping he can develop some of that toughness that made Nick Punto the key asset to those Twins teams of a few years ago. Enough of this "talent" business - I want to know about good old-fashioned hard work and "scrap-attitudi-ness" - which is a word you can feel free to use in your scouting reports, Jason.

Nov 15, 2012 09:53 AM

rating: -1

70Glove

You are extremely high on Berrios and I understand that a No. 3 cost controlled starter at the Major League Level is a VERY valuable commodity. But what is holding back Berrios' OFP from being higher? I understand that it is only a small professional sample, but does that really have a large effect on his potential? With some repetitions at a full season level under his belt, do you expect his OFP to rise accordingly?

Nov 15, 2012 10:38 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

It's possible, but I think his potential is likely to remain in the same range. I think his OFP is very high. This isn't a guy that is likely to pitch at the top of a rotation, though. Those guys are rare. If he develops into an ml #3, that's huge.

Nov 15, 2012 10:42 AM

richardkr34

Is Buxton one of the fastest 10 players in the minors?

Nov 15, 2012 11:12 AM

rating: 0

Nils J

Did you get a look at Minnesota boy Madison boer?

Nov 15, 2012 12:27 PM

rating: 0

Nick Faleris

BP staff

I liked Boer a fair amount coming out of Oregon, seeing his future most likely as an 8th inning guy. Minnesota has kept him the rotation for the time being, I assume to get innings under his belt. I think in short stints he can miss some bats and produce soft contact with his sinker/slider. I saw signs of a solid change-up with Team USA but didn't see the same quality in the offering the following spring. Jason may have more insight as to what others in the industry had to say about his Midwest League showing this summer.

Nov 15, 2012 12:56 PM

Mark Anderson

BP staff

Talked to a couple scouts this week that both killed Boer. Neither liked him at all.

Nov 15, 2012 16:35 PM

jmoultz

Great work again, guys. Did any of you happen to get reports on Josmil Pinto? He reached AA this year with some pretty good numbers and just turned 23. Is he more suspect than prospect? Thanks.

Nov 15, 2012 12:35 PM

rating: 0

mdthomp

Any chance we can get an Alex Meyer write up thrown in here? I'm assuming he would slide in behind Buxton, Sano and Hicks? Maybe in front of Hicks?

Nov 30, 2012 13:48 PM

rating: 1

Softy Electric

Thanks for your work, Jason y otros.

Vance Worley. Traded in between the Twins and Phillies rankings. Where would he rank on this 25 and younger list?

If I made an uneducated guess, I'd say #5, just ahead of Kyle Gibson? Not that "soft 2" upside, but he's already proven he deserves to be in a rotation...

Feb 14, 2013 11:50 AM

rating: 0

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<< Previous Article

On the Beat: NL Shoppi... (11/15)

<< Previous Column

Prospects Will Break Y... (11/12)

Next Column >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (11/20)

Next Article >>
The BP Wayback Machine... (11/16)

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