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November 12, 2012 Prospects Will Break Your HeartColorado Rockies Top 10 Prospectsby Jason Parks
State of the Farm: “That is you can't you know tune in but it's all right, that is I think it's not too bad.” The Top Ten
What Happened in 2012: The teenager made a successful full-debut in the Sally League, showing a well-rounded tool collection and propelling himself up to the top of the team’s prospect rankings.
BP Comment Quick Links jj0501 (60272) I like the new format, after adjustment on my part, and recognize the amount of information packed into each profile. On your ETA's (recognizing it is an "estimate", after all), one quick question. Are they based at all on the MLB depth chart of the parent team ? Or is it on a "ML ready is MLB ready" basis ? There is no right or wrong way, of course, I just wondering how you appraoch the topic. Thanks. dREaDS Fan (51622) This is down in the weeds, but Arenado (with all the emerging flaws & doubts as detailed above .. and still in the minors) is ranked above Wilin Rosario on the <25 listing? It's a jumble in the middle of that 25U list, and was very difficult to line-up. Rosario really takes a chunk out of his own value behind the plate. A little more growth and he could certainly climb higher on next year's 25U, but thus far we don't have reason to project that growth. That bat is obviously legit. Nov 12, 2012 08:02 AM thatfnmb (40377) With Matzek's stuff, shouldn't his ceiling be even higher? Albeit with more risk. HIgher than a number two starter? Hard mountain to climb. To profile as a legit number one, a pitcher either needs to have ridiculous high-end stuff (plus-plus grades) or plus stuff with high-end command. Matzek lacks the command, and despite the plus stuff, it's not so ridiculous that he can dominate with fringe command. Nov 12, 2012 06:43 AM Matt Commins (63058) I was lucky enough to see Matzek three times this year and each time he looked awful; walked a ton of guys; couldn't stop the snowball from getting bigger. "Will take himself out of games when he starts to struggle." That suggests poor makeup/pitchability. If he continues to show poor command and makeup will he be on the top 10 list next year? Depends on the rest of the players in the system. As long as Matzek still has plus stuff, he will have people willing to show patience. It depends on the person/evaluator to decide how long that patience continues. Nov 12, 2012 09:51 AM Behemoth (46675) One more, if that's OK. How would Story's bat play at 2nd or 3rd if the Rockies move him eventually because of Tulo? Or would they do better trading Story to someone who needs a shortstop? This is a good question. I believe in Story's bat, but his ability to stick at shortstop is what could make it really standout. Yes, I think it could play at either second or third. But he loses a lot of sex appeal when you move him to a position where the bat is supposed to stand out. I think he would have more value in trade (as a shortstop) than as a 2B or 3B for the Rockies, but I guess that all depends on the return. Nov 12, 2012 06:57 AM DarinRuf18 (70013) Could the 2015 Rockies infield look something like Arenado at 3B, Story at SS, Rutledge at 2B, Tulo at 1B, and Rosario behind the plate? Or do you see them sticking with Tulo at SS, Arenado at 3B, Story at 2B, and possibly Rosario at 1B?...it would seem that with all the problems Rosario had behind the plate this year, that maybe he profiles as 1B. I know he played a handful of innings at 3B(and was apparently awful), and if im not mistaken, 1B as well. I guess my question is where do you see Story, Tulo, Rutledge, Arenado and Rosario ending up in say...4 years? Will they look to move someone? Tulo for SP after his next monster season? I know I've seen this idea floated around, but it seems difficult to justify trading Tulo... First of all, thanks for the compliment. We appreciate it. Nov 12, 2012 08:18 AM DarinRuf18 (70013) i dont neccessarily think Tulo is on the decline just yet, and im not sure right now would be the best time to trade him either. do you? i guess my thought process was that he was coming off a major injury this year, and therefore his value would be down...but upon further review, im gonna go ahead and guess that GMs across baseball know how good Tulo has been and still can be. Luke in MN (42774) Yeah, props on the amount of work you and the team are putting into the prospect stuff here. Your podcast with Kevin Goldstein will always be your greatest and most enduring contribution to American culture, but this other stuff's good too. 70Glove (69957) Loved the article Professor. One question about David Dahl. Can you explain how Dahl is both polished for his age, and a long way off from his ceiling. Does his polish mean that he has a relatively high floor in addition to his high ceiling? Or is he just polished for his level/age which that doesn't have any bearing on his floor or ceiling? Yes; I'd say high floor/high ceiling. He has real baseball skills (on the field skills) as a teenager, which is rare. He is still a long way off and a high risk because of the fact that he is a teenager and has only provided a small professional sample. As mature as he seems to carry himself and play, being young still allows for too many unknown variables to suggest he's without much risk. Risk is inherent in youth. Nov 12, 2012 09:12 AM 70Glove (69957) Ok, I understand that "Risk is inherent in youth". But where does Dahl's specific risk stand in relation to the risk of similar outfield prospects around the same age. I know that comps aren't the best way to go about evaluating players, but does Dahl's polish make him less risky than a player at a similar age/position? I guess what I'm asking is: what effect does polish really have if it doesn't minimize the overall risk? You have to look at each player specifically. I would suggest that a healthy chunk of 18-year-old prospects are at least high risk until their first full-season of professional ball. In fact, you can make a case that most would be extreme risks, given the nature of the developmental process and the unknowns at the time. As the player matures and the forecast changes, you can make an more accurate projection based on a larger professional record. Nov 12, 2012 10:00 AM jmoultz (440) Minor correction: Zach Putnam was claimed by the Cubs last week, so he's no longer a Rockie. 70Glove (69957) Thanks. Makes more sense now. Also "healthy chunk of 18 year olds" should be the name of a punk band. Hawktrap (69926) Just wondering, with a 7 fastball and an easy 6 borderline 7 slider why is Chad Bettis' OFP only a 6. What is stopping him from having closer upside? jmoultz (440) I'm going to guess they've hedged because he missed the entire season with a shoulder injury. Shoulder injuries are the worst kind for any pitcher and he injured his in the spring. If he had come back at some point in 2012 he might have been rated higher but missing the whole year is worrisome. jmoultz (440) I can't speak for the BP crew but for me a career-threatening injury does change a player's potential. From the primer: jmoultz (440) Sorry, 70Glove...meant to post that as a reply to your post. 70Glove (69957) Its all good, I see your point here. Its the concept that Bettis' arm injury has the potential to affect his potential going forward. 70Glove, it's an interesting question, and one that is an unfortunate result of the "prospect ranking" format. Nov 12, 2012 11:26 AM 70Glove (69957) Nick, His ceiling could absolutely fluctuate, though the extent to which it fluctuates is wholly a product of the evaluator. I've spoken to area scouts that won't submit a pitcher with significant arm injury history higher than 5. Personally, I prefer to use injury history as a data point that might or might not detract from projected OFP. Nov 12, 2012 11:47 AM Ryno23 (39029) Jason, Richard Bergstrom (36532) Hmm.. regarding the Top 10 25 and Under, I think I liked the methodology where major league success would have somewhat more weight than minor league potential.. in other words, I'd slot Rosario over Arrendo and bump Chacin up a few slots. R.A.Wagman (32721) Jason - what's your take on the rumors (not sure if they were ever confirmed) about the Rockies placing a great deal of stock on the "Christian character" of their potential draft picks? I've always viewed makeup as the work ethic and dedication that takes place on the field, as it relates to baseball. Can a player overcome failure? Can I player push himself beyond his raw physical ability? Can a player handle pressure? Can I player make adjustments, etc? I don't care if a player's moral compass points in the opposite direction as long as those issues don't limit or disable the approach on the field. Nov 12, 2012 20:57 PM Richard Bergstrom (36532) The Rockies are _very_ Christian. Even at the major league level, the players often attend service together.
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44 comments have been left for this article.
What percentage of the players you rank (in general, not just Rockies) have you seen in person?
What are your thoughts on Corey Dickerson?
"What are your thoughts on Corey Dickerson?"
Oops. Sorry, missed it.
As a unit, we've put eyes on the majority of the prospects we rank. Personally, I'd say my percentage is healthy (but it depends on the team). Add to the mix guys like Faleris, Churchill, Mellen, and Anderson, and we aren't missing many. Of course, it doesn't just end with our eyes. We try to get outside opinion on the prospects we rank in order to build a more comprehensive profile.