November 7, 2012
Let Me Qualify That
If you are wise, you will dread a prosperity which only loads you with more.
We now know which of the players who qualified for… um, a qualifying offer, received one. They were:
Should offers have been made to these players? On the flip side, should offers have been made to some of the players who didn’t receive one? How do we estimate what $13.3 million is worth, or should be worth, in terms of production?
These offers were not made in a vacuum, of course. In some cases, the team extending the offer was fairly certain that the player in question would sign a multiyear contract elsewhere. Knowing that they couldn’t or wouldn’t match that offer because of financial constraints (Upton/Rays) or for other reasons (Hamilton/Rangers), they reasoned that they might as well score a compensation pick. The Red Sox had every reason to bring Ortiz back after he managed a 3.0 WARP despite missing almost half the season. He was already making roughly the amount of the qualifying offer, and he signed a two-year deal worth approximately the same annual value ($13 million per season, plus incentives).
Similarly, the Yankees would like to retain Hiroki Kuroda, who gave them superior workhorse production (he threw the sixth-most innings in baseball last year) for $10 million. As Matthew Pouliot points out, somewhat irritably, while arguing that Zack Greinke may be overvalued, Kuroda is probably worth a good deal more than that: