October 21, 2012

Playoff Prospectus

NLCS Game Six Preview: Cardinals at Giants

by Daniel Rathman

Buoyed by an unexpectedly superb outing from Barry Zito, the Giants regained home-field advantage in the NLCS with a 5-0 win on Friday night. But Bruce Bochy’s team needs two more victories to clinch its second pennant in three years, while Mike Matheny’s team is just one victory away from its second pennant in a row. Will the Cardinals advance tonight, or will this series require a decisive Game Seven on Monday? To answer those questions, here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for Game Six:

Cardinals (Chris Carpenter) vs. Giants (Ryan Vogelsong) – 7:30 p.m. ET

PECOTA Odds of Winning: Cardinals 51.6 percent, Giants 48.4 percent

Update (6:52 p.m. ET) - Odds after Matt Holliday was scratched with back spasms: Giants 50.9 percent, Cardinals 49.1 percent

Projected Starting Lineups:

Cardinals vs. Vogelsong (R)

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web. Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in. 4 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links code of conduct Menthol (60351) "Jerry Layne, who is set to work the plate in Game Six, on the other hand, is typically stingier with the borders than his crewmates, a factor that could give disciplined hitters a material advantage tonight." Cool, maybe Belt won't strike out looking *every* time up. Oct 21, 2012 09:31 AM link rating: 0   Daniel Rathman BP staff (31349) +1 Oct 21, 2012 09:50 AM link   pathard (4402) ESPN has Vogelsong's OPS vs RHB as .653 not .619?? Oct 21, 2012 13:44 PM link rating: 0   Daniel Rathman BP staff (31349) Oddly, I'm seeing it listed differently at different places ... Yahoo has it as 619, ESPN 653. B-Ref sides with ESPN, so that's probably accurate. Thanks for pointing that out. Oct 21, 2012 15:48 PM link   Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content. << Previous Article Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/19) << Previous Column Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/19) Next Column >> Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/22) Next Article >> Collateral Damage Dail... (10/22) RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Daily Hit List: Friday, May 17 In A Pickle: How Great Thou Bart Pitcher Profile: Scouting Alberto Gonzalez a... Baseball ProGUESTus: On the Origin of the Sw... What You Need to Know: Going the Wrong Ray Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot, First Qua... Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framin... MORE BY DANIEL RATHMAN 2012-10-27 - Playoff Prospectus: World Series Game Three ... 2012-10-24 - Playoff Prospectus: World Series Game One Pr... 2012-10-22 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Seven Preview:... 2012-10-21 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Six Preview: C... 2012-10-19 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Preview: ... 2012-10-18 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Four Preview: ... 2012-10-17 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Three Preview:... More... MORE PLAYOFF PROSPECTUS 2012-10-23 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Recap: Giants Win T... 2012-10-22 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Seven Preview:... 2012-10-22 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game 6 Recap: Giant... 2012-10-21 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Six Preview: C... 2012-10-19 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Recap: Tigers Defea... 2012-10-19 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Recap: Gi... 2012-10-19 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game 4 Recap: Cardi... More... Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Customer Service  |  Newsletter  |  Masthead  |  Glossary  |  Contact Us Copyright © 1996-2013 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.            Surprise Me!