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October 12, 2012

Playoff Prospectus

NLDS Game Five Preview: Cardinals at Nationals

by Daniel Rathman

Four division series, four Game Fives, and this one between the Cardinals and Nationals should decide the last team to advance—unless, of course, the Yankees and Orioles play extra innings again. If the Cardinals win, the no. 2-seeded Giants will enjoy home-field advantage in the NLCS; if the Nationals win, they will host Game One on Sunday as the senior circuit’s top regular-season team. First things first, here are the PECOTA odds and projected starting lineups for this evening’s contest:

Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) at Nationals (Gio Gonzalez) – 7:30 p.m. ET

PECOTA Odds of Winning: Nationals 52.2 percent, Cardinals 47.8 percent

Odds if Nationals were starting Strasburg in this game: Nationals 57.4 percent, Cardinals 42.6 percent

Projected Starting Lineups:

Cardinals vs. Gonzalez (L)

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web. Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in. Related Content:  St. Louis Cardinals,  Washington Nationals,  Adam Wainwright,  Gio Gonzalez 8 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links code of conduct mapatterson5 (54908) "Besides Werth, only two other hitters—Harper and LaRoche—have an extra-base hit in the series" Zimmerman homered in game 2 and Desmond doubled in game 3. Still a poor showing for the Nationals bats though. Oct 12, 2012 08:37 AM link rating: 1   Daniel Rathman BP staff (31349) Whoa, meant to make that sentence about home runs and somehow conflated a bunch of different things. Big thanks for catching that. It's fixed above. Oct 12, 2012 09:09 AM link   David Jackson (68013) With Jim Joyce no longer behind the plate to call his "Wacky Wild Strike Zone-like Experience" we should get something more resembling a baseball game tonight. http://i.imgur.com/ZHFJ8.png http://i.minus.com/ihYbAkgxdpcvC.gif Oct 12, 2012 08:40 AM link rating: 1   Lindemann (852) In the first game, Wainwright seemed to have figured out that his curveball was basically unrecognizable and thus unhittable given the shadows. A two-strike count meant the at-bat was over. This time will be night time, and that advantage will dissipate. It's a good curveball but not that good without a little help. Oct 12, 2012 08:56 AM link rating: 0   buckgunn (439) This is a good point overall, although I question calling Wainwright's curveball "not that good without a little help." His curve is - by both reputation and more sophisticated analytic tools - among the very best in the game. Oct 12, 2012 13:08 PM link rating: 0   Daniel Rathman BP staff (31349) The shadows probably played a role, but I don't think they tell the whole story. Gonzalez, who also typically has a plus curveball, threw 19 of them in the game and did not get a single whiff. Some of that may be the Cardinals hitters being more disciplined and his command/control being worse, but I think it reinforces the point that Wainwright's curve is one of the best in the league when it's on. Oct 12, 2012 13:21 PM link   BillJohnson (2635) Certainly Carlos Beltran is a lot happier being behind it rather than in front of it. Oct 12, 2012 15:07 PM link rating: 2   Daniel Rathman BP staff (31349) +1 Oct 12, 2012 16:08 PM link   Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content. << Previous Article Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/12) << Previous Column Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/12) Next Column >> Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/12) Next Article >> Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/12) RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Daily Roundup: Around the League: June 17, 2... The Week In Quotes: June 10-16 Minor League Update: Games of June 14-16 Daily Hit List: Monday, June 17 Transaction Analysis: The Profar-Free TA What You Need to Know: Blanks Shoots Padres ... Monday Morning Ten Pack: June 17 MORE FROM OCTOBER 12, 2012 Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Recap: Tigers Defea... Prospect Push: Big League Ready-or-Not Playoff Prospectus: Sofa Scouting: Reds vs. ... Prospect Profile: Maikel Franco Raising Aces: Bush League: Gerrit Cole and D... Collateral Damage Daily: Friday, October 12 The BP Wayback Machine: Are You Experienced? MORE BY DANIEL RATHMAN 2012-10-14 - Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game One Preview: C... 2012-10-13 - Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game One Preview: Y... 2012-10-12 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Five Preview: ... 2012-10-12 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Five Preview: ... 2012-10-11 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Five Preview: ... 2012-10-11 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Four Preview: ... 2012-10-11 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Five Preview: ... More... MORE PLAYOFF PROSPECTUS 2012-10-12 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Four Recap: Or... 2012-10-12 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Recap: Giants Defea... 2012-10-12 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Five Preview: ... 2012-10-12 - Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game Five Preview: ... 2012-10-12 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Recap: Tigers Defea... 2012-10-12 - Playoff Prospectus: Sofa Scouting: Reds vs. ... 2012-10-11 - Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game Three Recap: Y... More... Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Customer Service  |  Newsletter  |  Masthead  |  Glossary  |  Contact Us Copyright © 1996-2013 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.            Surprise Me!