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October 12, 2012

Prospect Push

Big League Ready-or-Not

by Jason Churchill

Even when a player has developed and shows he might be ready to handle major league competition, some clubs are still hesitant to promote from within, preferring instead to play a veteran incumbent. This is often particularly true if the club is trying to compete rather than rebuild. However, many organizations are willing to bet on youth, even if letting the incumbent go is more expensive.

Several top prospects figure to play heavily into the decision-making process this winter when their clubs consider trades and free agents to shore up their rosters. Here are just a few players who are good bets to get some consideration as viable options:

Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
Right-hander Miller is ready to jump into the big-league rotation and has shown poise, command and stuff during his time with the parent club in September; if the Cardinals advance today, he could get the opportunity to show more of that in the postseason since he was added to the roster in place of the injured Jaime Garcia.

Miller was inconsistent at best during his first 17 starts in Triple-A Memphis before tweaking his mechanics and showing his offspeed stuff with more regularity. He also put back on some of the weight he lost over last offseason, which may have aided the life on his fastball and his durability within each start.

If the Cardinals are as convinced as I am that Miller is ready for a full season in the majors—workload should not be much of an obstacle, ether—it could mean the end of the line for soon-to-be free agent right-hander Kyle Lohse, even if Garcia's status for 2013 does not fall in the club's favor.

If Garcia is ready to go next spring, Miller could push Lance Lynn or Jake Westbrook to the bullpen, and certainly allows GM John Mozeliak to focus on improving the club's middle infield and bullpen depth rather than having to consider spending money or trade assets on the rotation.

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Klochner

(58076)

I assume then that you'd consider Arcia more ready than Hicks?

Oct 12, 2012 07:03 AM

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Karl Hungus

(67737)

In the AAA championship game Bauer looked as though he had lost it. He got roughed up a bit, which happens, but I don't think their issue is with his pitching as much as his makeup. He seemed to pout the entire time on the mound. I haven't seen enough of him to make a call either way but there were definite signs of a good pitcher hidden under his rough outing. I am hoping it is just the long season and a couple of rough outings and next year we see a happier and more team oriented Trevor Bauer. I have seen enough of Archie Bradley to know that there is serious depth in the Arizona pitching ranks so time is not on his side. As far as Profar goes the guy is real treat to watch. The Rangers would be wise to do whatever they can to put him at short. Great list and good to get updates on a couple of guys I don't follow. Great article.

Oct 12, 2012 07:06 AM

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Jason A. Churchill

(53089)

Arcia is flat out better than Hicks right now, but it's conceivable that Hicks hits the big leagues sooner. As a result of Arcia's upside and likely value once he hits the majors, he has the much better shot to impact the roster movement over the next 15 months than does Hicks, and that could start this season.

Arcia is the kind of prospect you plan around a little bit. Hicks hasn't come that far back from his developmental stagnation. Still a prospect, he's just fallen behind Arcia in probability and potential impact.

Oct 12, 2012 07:08 AM

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Jason A. Churchill

(53089)

rkowna,

Treat is the right word on Profar, and what's crazy is that it's been that way since he was 16-17 and in his very first few professional games. From the get-go, he was a future star.

And to think, almost every other club with strong interest in him wanted him to pitch.

Oct 12, 2012 07:10 AM

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Scott44

(37738)

Jason - Really enjoyed the write-ups. On Eaton, the PCL has a way of inflating hitting numbers. What kind of average/power/speed do you expect from him moving forward. Is Shin Soo Choo or Alejandra De AZa a decent offensive comp.?

Oct 12, 2012 11:48 AM

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Cappy73

(56767)

Is it really that likely that Lynn could end up not starting? He seemed to do alright, tired, then did ok after getting some rest. Wouldn't he just need and/or already be stretched out?

Oct 12, 2012 12:44 PM

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Jason A. Churchill

(53089)

Scott44,

Eaton isn't going to hit for a lot of power, IMO, but he will get on base, play defense and steal some bases. We're talking average regular -- although his power may inflate bit in his hone ballpark in the big leagues, too.

More De Aza than Choo, no doubt.

Cappy73,

Lynn could very well be caught in between. We know Carp, Wainwright and Garcia will start -- it seems Garcia's second opinion revealed non year-threatening injuries and he's now seeking a third opinion -- and they just gave Jake Westbrook an extension for almost $10 million. So it comes down to Miller or Lynn, or Westbrook as a $10 million long reliever.

Lynn's stuff plays much better in relief anyway, so Westbrook isn't being kicked to the curb, at least until he starts to struggle and needs to be replaced. I could see the club holding back Miller for a short time to start the year, but in the end he's far and away the better pitcher.

The 'pen should also get better next year with a full year of Kelly and possibly Trevor Rosenthal -- who could also start -- setting up Motte.

Oct 12, 2012 13:20 PM

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