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October 9, 2012
Prospects Will Break Your Heart
I’ve Been Thinking About...
by Jason Parks
I’ve been thinking about….. prospect rankings. The time of year is near, and I’ve started to make calls and I’ve started to take notes and I’ve started to put the parts of the machine together. One of the reasons I was never keen on prospect ranking had more to do with the process than the finished product, which, I will admit, has value despite a shelf life that makes it obsolete before you can find comfort in it. The process is the real creature here, as the definition of prospect value is always up for debate, with some offering grand rewards for high ceilings, some for skill maturity, some rewarding proximity to the majors, and some ranking prospects based solely on statistical output. Because value is in the eye of the value beholder, there isn’t a wrong way to organize and rank prospects, as the subjective nature of the process keeps us tied to individual philosophies and category weights. But one shouldn’t assume that all rankings are therefore created equal, and that throwing darts onto a board with prospect faces is a better method of classification than picking up a phone and talking to the industry tasked with prospect evaluation.
Or is it? My eyes have been privy to a few teams’ internal prospect rankings, compiled by their scouts on the ground and their analysts in the office, and even though the process of the product is more complex, I’ve been just as bewildered looking at a team’s list as I have been looking at a Bleacher Report slideshow of the top prospects in the game. The truth is that I’m not sure how the new BP rankings will be received, and even though they will be thoroughly researched and examined, the weight I assign to any specific attribute or characteristic will be based on a personal preference, and as a result, the BP list that I put a bow on will look different than the one Nick would compile, or Jason, or Mark, or Chris, or anybody else who decided to make a list. That uniqueness is both valued and open to exposure, with the latter stemming from the aforementioned subjectivity of the process itself, as each list, regardless of author, is different and therefore inaccurate at some level when judged against the reader’s personal preferences and experiences.
Why do we like these things again? Oh, yes. We like to see inside the homes of our neighbors, partially out of curiosity, partially because we respect the
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Out of Left Field: It'... (10/09)
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Prospects Will Break Y... (10/24)
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This is a great column. The portion about Josh Hamilton is one of the most soulful pieces of sports writing I have read in years. I may as well not even bother trying to think about anything else the rest of the day. Thank you.
I appreciate that. Many thanks.
Jason, as a life long Rangers fan for over 30 years, I'm very conflicted about the Josh Hamilton saga. Ever since he busted onto the scenes with the Rangers, he's been my favorite player. His story and his battles with life in general captured me. But during the past year or so, it has been very evident that the Rangers were planning on letting him go. I believe the final nail was when Johnny Narron left for the Brewers and it would not shock me at all to see Hamilton end up there. That being said, I think Hamilton leaving is for the best for both parties and I will continue to support Josh Hamilton and cheer for my favorite team.
I think part of the problem is Rangers fans are a bit spoiled and some of the Rangers writers for ESPN have a field day hacking away at Hamilton.
The guy's had a rough life, in part from his own doing. On the flipside, he _has_ had a lot of weird stuff happen to him. If I was a baseball player and a ball I threw into the stands killed someone, I'd seriously think about not playing baseball again. Compound that with Hamilton's battles with himself and attempts to maintain his faith and, yes, a troubled soul. He is the kind of guy who one day could say "enough is enough" and retire completely from baseball and I'm not sure I'd blame him either.
All of the discussion on Hamilton raises two questions: (1) which teams will bid for his services? and (2) what should be his destination?
As for question #1, one could round up what Claude Rains' Captain Renault called the "usual suspects" -- the Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, Giants, Tigers, Cubs, just to name a few. Any team with a decent revenue stream would certainly have some interest in Josh Hamilton. The amount of interest depends proportionally on that team's assessment of Hamilton's coping skills.
Those coping skills, I think, lay at the heart of the answer to question #2. Hamilton would be best served signing somewhere where a team needs him but where the off field stressors are minimized. The two teams that may be good landing places in this respect are the White Sox and Cardinals. Interestingly, both teams hired first year managers in 2012 and Robin Ventura and Mike Matheny brought a significant amount of calm to potentially chaotic situations. The White Sox, though, might be the slightly better fit of the two, only because the Chicago media tends to obsess about the Cubs and the Sox are able to fly under the radar somewhat.
As a final note, did anyone else ever wonder why so many characters in Casablanca -- like Captian Renault -- share names with cars?
I could see something off the grid... Oakland might be an interesting fit for a low-key environment while having a DH. I don't quite see him being a good fit for the Braves (or any non-DH team) which is a common rumor that goes around.
As far as Casablanca goes, the movie came out before many of the cars did and it's associated with style, so a better question might be why so many cars are named after Casablanca.
Oakland and Baltimore would also be good low-key, off the grid choices. Given Hamilton's history, the worst choices would be: (1) the Cubs, given the high number of day games (and, thus, free nights) and fan pressure for post-season success, (2) the Yankees, (3) the Mets, (4) the Dodgers and (5) the Angels. Given their size and their media markets, neither New York nor Los Angeles would be a good destination for Hamilton.