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October 6, 2012

Playoff Prospectus

NLDS Game One Preview: Reds at Giants

by Daniel Rathman

The Braves had won a major-league record 23 consecutive games started by Kris Medlen when the righty took the mound against the Cardinals yesterday afternoon. Orioles starter Joe Saunders was winless in his six career tries at Rangers Ballpark before last night. So, naturally, St. Louis and Baltimore advanced to the Division Series, leaving Atlanta and Texas to wonder what might have been.

We’re but two games into the postseason, and havoc has already been wreaked. Below, you’ll find the PECOTA odds and projected lineups for today’s Game One matchup between the two- and three-seeds in San Francisco.

Reds (Johnny Cueto) at Giants (Matt Cain) – 9:30 p.m. ET
PECOTA Odds of Winning: Giants 66.6 percent, Reds 33.4 percent

Projected Starting Lineups

The Division Series between the Reds and Giants figures to be tightly contested, but PECOTA gives the number-three seed a robust 2-in-3 chance of grabbing the early advantage. Cueto and Cain both were among the second-tier hopefuls in a crowded National League Cy Young pool, but Cain’s track record at AT&T Park may be what sets the Giants apart tonight.

Cain produced the best campaign of his career in 2012, proving worthy of the six-year, $127.5 million extension he received this past offseason. Though he was mortal on the road, serving up 14 home runs and posting a 3.56 ERA in 108 2/3 innings of work, Cain halved that gopher-ball total in his 110 2/3 frames at AT&T Park, en route to a 2.03 ERA and a perfect game on June 13. A fly-ball pitcher who is not afraid to work up in the zone, Cain takes advantage of his home park’s generous dimensions, and he did not allow an earned run in 22 1/3 innings during the 2010 postseason, when he made three starts, all of them in San Francisco.