Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/06)
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October 5, 2012 Playoff ProspectusNational League Wild Card Game (UPDATED)The last time the Cardinals met the Braves in the postseason, in 2000, St. Louis swept a three-game series by outscoring Atlanta 24-10. Only six players from that series remain active and two, Rafael Furcal and Chipper Jones, will attend this one. Fresher on the minds of both squads and their fans is what happened last year, when the Cardinals made a late-season surge and stole away the Braves’ postseason ticket on the season’s final night. Consider this Atlanta’s opportunity for revenge. Lineups (AVG/OBP/SLG/TAv) Cardinals Braves The Cardinals scored more runs than every National League team except the Brewers. This is a tough lineup, even without Lance Berkman and Rafael Furcal. Jay is close to being a prototypical leadoff hitter: he hits for average, gets on base, and is the team’s best stolen base threat, in terms of volume and efficiency. Following Jay is a slate of well-rounded hitters. From Beltran through Freese you have players capable of doing it all at the plate. The seven-through-nine spots are the closest thing an opposing pitcher has to a reprieve, especially if Kozma’s uncharacteristically good offensive production ceases. Atlanta might have the weaker lineup overall, but they do have some small advantages over St. Louis. Namely, the Braves have the best two basestealers in the series, in Bourn and Heyward. The Braves can also run out a more balanced lefty-righty lineup, making it tough for the Cardinals to play matchups in the later innings. Atlanta led the NL in walks drawn and was near the top of the league in strikeouts as well; Uggla does a lot of both. The decision to start Ross over McCann actually improves the lineup, given McCann’s otherwise down season.
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Surprise Me!
I predict Matheny will have someone---and not an 8 or 9 hitter---bunt with a runner already in scoring position.
Yes, Matheny bunts quite a bit, often with odd choices, such as Jay.
Actually, the Cardinals were right at league average in sacrifices per plate appearance for the year, just a tiny bit over but within easy statistical reach of average. Jay may look like an odd choice, but he has also been known to try to bunt for a base hit with nobody on; he's fast enough that bunting has some chance of working, and he's not a big power guy (.095 ISO) so that he's not giving up much of a probability of hitting the ball out of the park by doing it. (None of this is acknowledged by the Cardinals fans who grump about all of Matheny's bunting.)
Most teams bunt too much. Bunting a league average amount is too much.
He also bunts at times that are highly questionable tactically--it is often hard to see the logic.
I remember Sveum spent about two weeks deciding how he wanted to revamp his Cubs lineup. The unveiled lineup had Mather batting third and, in his first at bat with a runner on second and an out, Sveum had Mather bunt.
Teams do bunt too much.
Salvomania is exactly right. Matheny drives me nuts with his bunts--not to mention what he probably does to underrated hitting coach McGwire. Particularly the first inning bunts. I thought Gene Mauch ball was long past. A recent game had Jay lead off with a double and BELTRAN bunting against Ricky "Cy" Nolasco. Jay eventually scored as a result of a 2-out hit (he'd have scored from 2nd). He's had Molina bunting this year which is ridiculous given the hitter he's evolved into over the last couple of years. Molina has even bunted on his own. "Yo Mike, save the bunting for the 239/293/344 hitters, you know, the ones who hit like you did."