CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (10/03)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Up... (10/01)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Miguel... (10/05)
Next Article >>
Regular-Season Awards (10/03)

October 3, 2012

Pebble Hunting

A Very Good Team and a Very Bad Season

by Sam Miller


The day that the Angels introduced Vernon Wells, Arte Moreno told reporters the score:

If we win—if we get to the playoffs and get a shot at it—then we managed it right.

The day that the Angels introduced Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, or the day they introduced Zack Greinke, or the day they called up Mike Trout, or the day they signed Eric Hurley to a minor-league contract, or the day they didn’t do anything except file their expense accounts and clean out their inboxes, they could have said the same. Winning, of course, is the ultimate judgment. It’s the end of the story. It’s not the whole story, though, and figuring out just what, why, and how about the Angels’ season—or, more specifically, about the decisions that went into the Angels’ season—is a lot more complicated than Moreno's construction. 

There are two ways of looking at the Angels' season. They are just four games behind the best team in the American League. They are going to finish with 90 or 91 wins; our preseason PECOTAs projected them for 90. Going back over the past 12 years, 60 percent of teams that won 87 to 90 games made the playoffs. The Angels were a very good team and, but for the other teams that played better (duh), they could have made the playoffs.

But they won’t. That’s the other way to look at the Angels' season. They won’t. They took a team that won 86 games last year and signed the best free agent hitter available, and the best free agent pitcher available, and lost nobody of value, and they won’t make the playoffs. They added the best rookie in history, a player who is having the greatest season in franchise history, and they won’t make the playoffs. They added a dominant closer, and they won’t make the playoffs. They traded for the best pitcher available at midseason, and they won’t make the playoffs. And they removed Jeff Mathis, and they won’t make the playoffs. It’s the craziest thing.

So did somebody make a mistake with these Angels?

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Related Content:  Angels,  Projections,  Predictions

9 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (10/03)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Up... (10/01)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Miguel... (10/05)
Next Article >>
Regular-Season Awards (10/03)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Yu Better Watch Out
Baseball ProGUESTus: The Yankees' Post-River...
Pebble Hunting: Blind BABIP Test, Part 2
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Is There a Pinch-Fielding ...
Premium Article The Call-Up: Wil Myers
Premium Article The Call-Up: Zack Wheeler
Premium Article Overthinking It: The Most Surprising Team Pe...

MORE FROM OCTOBER 3, 2012
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Fall Instru...
Premium Article Sobsequy: The Unbearable Blandness of Joe Gi...
Premium Article Punk Hits: The Bay Area Body-Swap
Premium Article The Platoon Advantage: What We Mean By Worth...
Western Front: If It Wasn't for Accountabili...
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Wednesday, October ...
Premium Article Daily Hit List: Wednesday, October 3

MORE BY SAM MILLER
2012-10-05 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Miguel Cabrera's Retroactive...
2012-10-05 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 5...
2012-10-04 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 5...
2012-10-03 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: A Very Good Team and a Very ...
2012-10-03 - BP Unfiltered: What We Didn't See Coming
2012-10-03 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 5...
2012-10-03 - BP Unfiltered: Nothing Can Be Uncontroversia...
More...

MORE PEBBLE HUNTING
2012-10-31 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Tying Up October Loose Ends
2012-10-24 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the ...
2012-10-05 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Miguel Cabrera's Retroactive...
2012-10-03 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: A Very Good Team and a Very ...
2012-10-01 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Uplifting, Inspirational...
2012-09-28 - Pebble Hunting: The Increasingly Optimistic ...
2012-09-26 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: A Closer Look at Relievers a...
More...