Printer-friendly

October 1, 2012

Monday Morning Ten Pack

October 1

by BP Prospect Staff

Daniel Norris, LHP, Blue Jays (Short-season A Vancouver)
Norris was an over-slot second round signing for the Blue Jays in 2011, boasting three potential plus pitches: his 91-93 mph fastball, a slow 1-to-7 curve with big depth and bite, and a solid change with some cut-and-tumble. Norris throws with an easy arm out of a three-quarter slot, creating good angles and plane on his pitches, but there is some wrap on the back side, which can lead to drag in his arm and inconsistency in release. The quality of his stuff pops when on, but in order to more consistently tap into it he will need to find a way to standardize the delivery mechanism. Through extended spring training and just over 42-innings between rookie (35 IP) and short-season A ball (7.2 IP), Norris had his moments but was unable to build any momentum from start-to-start. He missed plenty of bats while flashing the goods that landed him a $2 million signing bonus, but he was too often betrayed by his timing and mechanics, with command and pitch execution suffering as a result. It may not take much for Norris to flip the switch and make the jump to a top pitching prospect, but it is at least a little disappointing to see a good athlete and student of the game like Norris continue to struggle with the same inconsistencies that haunted him as an amateur.—Nick Faleris

Jorge Alfaro, C, Rangers (Single-A Hickory)
One of the most physically gifted and athletic catchers in the minors, Alfaro has the profile of a future superstar, with a middle-of-the-order bat and the weapons behind the plate to develop into an above-average backstop. The bat speed is extraordinary, and the raw strength puts his power potential in the plus-plus range. The hit tool doesn’t share the same lofty ceiling, as the appetite for fastballs makes off-speed offerings his kryptonite, and his preference for the right-center gap shrinks his hitting zone and allows pitchers to work him inside. As a teenager in a full-season league, Alfaro was expected to struggle, but a cursory glance at the numbers might suggest his season was a success. Developmentally, the road was bumpy, with approach issues that soured some of his support, and along with a few minor injuries, limited him to only 74 games. Based on his tools, I expected Alfaro to emerge as a premiere prospect in the game, a frontline player with a legit major league floor to go along with the cathedral ceiling. I often stress patience when asked about young players, and perhaps I need to take my own advice. I’m just so enamored with a catcher that has a near-elite arm, plus speed, plus-plus power, and the kind of athleticism rarely found in a catcher. It’s an abnormal package and I expected to see the monster break into the village and start scaring the town-folk. It didn’t happen in 2012, but if it happens in 2013, Alfaro has a chance to go from top ten prospect in the Rangers system to top-tier prospect in all of baseball. The skill set is that terrifying.—Jason Parks

Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Red Sox (Double-A Portland)
Although the scouting reports were uneven during his first professional season, I thought Ranaudo was in position to take solid strides forward in 2012. The package stood out to me when seeing him in early 2011: big frame with room for growth, plus 78-82 mph curveball, live fastball, and a developing changeup. Ranaudo’s season started late due to a groin strain so I got my first look at him in late May in Double-A.  He showed the same tight power curve that can miss bats, but there was regression with both his fastball command and velocity. Ranaudo struggled considerably to keep his front shoulder from flying open, causing the heater to stay up in the zone. There was the lack of velocity, sitting 89-92 mph, due to his arm dragging. The stuff overall was unimpressive. I initially chalked it up to him not throwing well for me in that start, but the pattern continued in reports passed along from a couple of veteran scouts in subsequent outings; lack of velocity, below-average command, and not much finish to the change. Ranaudo ended up on the disabled list with “shoulder fatigue” before I could follow up on those reports, which ended up finishing his season after 37 2/3 innings. Whether it was an actual injury, a move to shut him down as a mental break, or a combination of both, the steps forward I expected in 2012 never happened.—Chris Mellen

Dillon Howard, RHP, Indians (Arizona Complex League)
Howard entered the season as a solid candidate to log time in the Midwest League, but saw his stay in extended spring training lengthened due to a dead-arm period and he never made it out of the Arizona complex. He sputtered through twelve starts in the Arizona League, logging just over 40 innings with few successes along the way. As a prep arm, Howard scored high marks for both a lively low-90s fastball that was difficult for hitters to elevate and a solid 6-foot-4, 210-pound pro body. Both the fastball and the body are still impressive, but the rest of the package has yet to progress as expected.  At the center of his struggles was an arsenal that too often found the center of the plate; in particular, his work-in-progress breaking balls.  His changeup remains the most advanced of his secondaries and has the potential to be a legit 55-60 offering on the 20/80 scouting scale, but his curve and slider are both still below average with soft action. The first step in growing and refining his repertoire is finding more consistency in his mechanics, as he currently fails to repeatedly get out over his lower half, producing some shoulder tilt and preventing him from driving the ball down in the zone.  His quick arm helps produce good velocity on his 4-seamer and sink on his 2-seamer, but he still struggles to get his arm in sync with his body, making timing and release problematic.  Fall instructs will be key for the 2011 second-rounder, as he needs to start addressing these issues and progressing through the system. At age 20, Howard is already behind the developmental curve with little actual development to show for his first full year of professional ball.—Nick Faleris

Donavan Tate, OF, Padres (High-A Lake Elsinore)
I’ve been on Tate’s jock for a while, hyping him to the sky during spring training and then lowering the boom with a “Bring Me the Head of..” piece during the summer. For me, he’s one of the more fascinating prospects in the minors, a player with lofty expectations from Jump Street, a hefty collection of tools, and flashes of light so bright that even casual observers can write the scouting report. But the periods of suck cloud all the positives, as Tate simply can’t put the package together. The approach is solid and Tate isn’t a free swinger, but the hit tool isn’t up to snuff, and pitchers who know how to pitch can beat him. Tom Verducci could probably slug over .400 in the California League, yet Tate, a player of incredible physical gifts, managed to slug only .303, a depressing outcome for a prospect that some scouts thought had 30 home run potential. Tate’s only 22, and perhaps a change of scenery could help turn the light on, but a new team won’t change the fundamental problems with his game, and unfortunately, with every passing season, it looks like Tate will go down as a bust. I still think he could be a late bloomer and develop into a role 5 player, but this bandwagon is getting lonely.—Jason Parks

Christian Bethancourt, C, Atlanta Braves
I have scouted Bethancourt extensively over the last few years and it has been a pleasure to watch him every time. His defensive abilities are out of this world and worthy of extensive praise and even some drool when he fires to second base with his sub-1.70 pop times. Prior to the season I tabbed Bethancourt as a breakout candidate despite his raw offensive talents and promotion to Double-A. That may have been a lofty prognostication but I continued to believe in the offensive tools. He has strength in his swing and the ability to drive the ball, but his pitch recognition and control of the strike zone lags behind. Bethancourt has a path to the big leagues with his glove and his swagger and raw offensive tools still leave me rating him as one of Atlanta’s top prospects. Now he just needs to settle down and make the strides necessary for his production to match the lofty tools.—Mark Anderson