September 20, 2012

Resident Fantasy Genius

One-Category Saviors: Strikeouts, Wins

by Derek Carty

Over the past week, I’ve discussed the importance of prioritizing categorical impact over raw value with the season nearing an end. At this point I think I’ve given the concept more press than Psy is getting, and while "Gangnam Style" becomes no less brilliant play after play, I fear me talking anymore about this would have the opposite effect.  So, I’ll simply point you towards my one-category contributor articles for saves and homers and steals and invisible horse dance my way onto the meat of today’s article...

Wins
The best strategy when chasing wins is to play the match-ups, if you have the luxury of doing so in leagues with daily transactions and/or deep-ish free agent pools.  Ideally, you’ll target pitchers with good skills and potent offenses who are facing weak offenses.  Mixing and matching is almost certain to be better than rolling with a single starter come hell or high water.  Still, if you need to for whatever reason, here are a few to consider.

Ross Detwiler isn’t supremely talented, but he is serviceable.  More importantly, though, he has one of the league’s best offenses supporting him and three cushy matchups on the docket to close out the season: the Dodgers and the Phillies twice.  If you’re chasing wins and there aren’t any obviously qualified candidates on the wire, Detwiler should be a serious consideration.

Over the course of a full season, give me Marco Estrada over Ross Detwiler in a landslide.  Given present circumstances, though, I’ll take Detwiler.  Estrada only has two starts remaining after defeating the Pirates yesterday: the Nats and Astros.  I’ll devour the Houston match-up but pass on the Washington one.  Still, Estrada is one of the most underappreciated pitchers in fantasy and has the NL’s highest-scoring offense in the second-half behind him, so bid accordingly.

Shallow Option: Lance Lynn finds himself in pretty much the same boat as Estrada.  He got the win yesterday and has the same Jekyll and Hyde pair of matchups remaining with Houston and Washington.  He has good offensive support and has pitched well since returning from the bullpen, though, so utilize as appropriate.

Deep Option: Miguel Gonzalez has been one of the pleasant surprises of the fantasy season, though he remains widely unowned.  His peripherals aren’t as good as his ERA indicates, but he gets a full slate of three match-ups the rest of the way, ranging from slightly-to-incredibly favorable: Boston, Toronto, and Tampa Bay.  Baltimore’s offense should be good enough to notch Gonzalez a win or two if he can hold up his end of the bargain.

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