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September 12, 2012

The Platoon Advantage

The Year of Everything But the Shortstop

by Bill Parker

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We know that positional strength comes and goes in cycles, like most other things in life. The early and mid-90s were great for first basemen and elite starting pitchers, the late 90s and early aughts for shortstops. The time since then has mostly been dominated by Albert Pujols, but it’s been pretty excellent for outfielders and second basemen, too. We can debate those classifications, I suppose, but you get the idea.

Over the last few years, though, I’d argue that the fates have shaken things out more or less evenly. In 2010, the MLB top 20 position players by WARP included at least one of every position but catcher (Joe Mauer came in at 22); in 2011, the top 12 had one at every position. The top 20 for 2012 includes 11 outfielders, three third basemen, three catchers, two second basemen, and, shockingly, just one first baseman. I’m pretty sure that each of the last three seasons has been branded the Year of the Pitcher at one point or another, but I’m not sure that’s totally justified, either; there are great pitchers, of course, but not so many or so dominant that they seem to dominate the sport.

So in a way, the era we’re currently entering seems to be becoming an era of positional parity, one in which everyone can share...except the shortstops.

The following table shows the average WARP for the top 10 MLB shortstops in every individual season for the past 10 years:

2003

4.65

2004

4.53

2005

4.74

2006

4.62

2007

4.72

2008

4.68

2009

4.56

2010

4.34

2011

3.57

2012*

2.67*

The asterisk is there because I added 13 percent to the 2012 number, to reflect the approximate percentage of the season remaining to be played. So, yes, that’s the projected average for the ten best shortstops in the league this season. Derek Jeter currently leads all shortstops with 3.0 WAR, which projects to a full-season 3.4; that adjusted figure would come in ninth in 2003, eighth in 2005, and 11th in 2009. It’s at least two full wins lower than the leader in every other year in that span, and less than half of most of them. The ninth and 10th guys in 2012, Jimmy Rollins and Erick Aybar, are at 1.9 WARP, projecting to about 2.1; that figure would fall in the 15-to-19 range in any year between 2003 and 2009.

So however you look at it, shortstop is on a downward trend, and is way, way down in 2012. Jeter’s understandably declining, Hanley Ramirez is primarily a third baseman (though he’d have no impact on this year’s list, thanks to an abysmal -16.6 FRAA). Other guys who have been less noticeable mainstays in the top 10, like Jimmy Rollins and Rafael Furcal, may be on their way out too.

There are a lot on their way up too, of course. Starlin Castro is the no. 2 shortstop in 2012, and he’s 22. It feels like Elvis Andrus (no. 3) has been around for ages, but he just turned 24 last month. He might soon be pushed out the Rangers’ door by Jurickson Profar, who’ll turn 20 just before next Spring Training. Manny Machado (who’s been a third baseman in the majors so far, but might move back down the road) turned 20 a couple months ago. Troy Tulowitzki has missed almost 100 games this season, and should be back next season at just 28. A lot of other guys who should be in the primes of their careers​—Alexei Ramirez, Yunel Escobar, J.J. Hardy—have had down years. Next season, or certainly by 2014 or 2015, there’s a very good chance that shortstop will be one of the deepest and best positions in baseball.

For now, though, the shortstop situation is bad. Really, really bad. The 2012 season, it may be said, has been a party to which everyone but shortstops has been invited. Well, everyone but shortstops and the Astros. 

Bill Parker is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Bill's other articles. You can contact Bill by clicking here

14 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Sharky

Um... Ian Desmond?

Your point still stands, though he put up impressive numbers despite injury this year.

Sep 12, 2012 05:10 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Bill Parker
BP staff

Desmond's bat has been very solid, but he gets knocked all the way out of the top ten thanks to a very poor showing in FRAA. He does better under some other metrics.

Sep 12, 2012 05:53 AM
 
Richard Bergstrom

Isn't WARP in general trending downwards? You need a graph that compares shortstop WARP to non-pitching WARP.

Sep 12, 2012 07:41 AM
rating: 1
 
geoff

Following on the prior commenter, I'd note that Fangraphs has Desmond leading eligible SS, with 4.5 WAR to date, a half game up on Andrus. He's only at 1.6, per BP. I pasted the FG results below.

Maybe I'm missing something, since the two measures are so disparate...

I don't think that necessarily negates the point of the article, but it does affect how you think SS looks going forward, since by this metric, the clear leader is still very early in his career.

Name WAR
Ian Desmond 4.5
Elvis Andrus 4
Jimmy Rollins 3.9
Jose Reyes 3.4
Derek Jeter 3.3
Jhonny Peralta 2.8
Starlin Castro 2.7
J.J. Hardy 2.7
Hanley Ramirez 2.6
Erick Aybar 2.4
Zack Cozart 2.3
Asdrubal Cabrera 2.3
Alcides Escobar 2.2
Mike Aviles 2.2
Yunel Escobar 2
Jamey Carroll 2
Alexei Ramirez 2
Rafael Furcal 1.1

Sep 12, 2012 05:53 AM
rating: 1
 
kddean

Am I nuts, or have the majority of these shortstops all been hurt this year, with the exception of Castro and Jeter?

Sep 12, 2012 07:08 AM
rating: 0
 
Sharky

The two explanations aren't mutually exclusive. But yes, a lot of these guys have been hurt. Time to get everyone back on steroids.

Sep 12, 2012 09:42 AM
rating: 0
 
Richard Bergstrom

Blame FRAA.

Sep 12, 2012 07:42 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Bill Parker
BP staff

Or blame UZR.

Without looking, I suspect that you'd see a similar trend if you used either of the WARs, just on a slightly different scale and with a few of the names (like Desmond) switched in.

Sep 12, 2012 09:14 AM
 
Richard Bergstrom

I don't know enough about UZR to blame it or give it credit. Besides, I already go to baseball-reference.com and ESPN.com to view statistics or splits that aren't easy enough to find on BP, so I'm not going to add another site just to find UZR.

So, I blame FRAA instead because I know, for any given player, FRAA will swing from +20 to -20 from one season to the next for whatever reason, and that reason is unknown.

Take Jeter, for example. He's at -5.2 FRAA. It's his best FRAA season since 2005 (-0.1), and before 2005, you have to go back to 1996 (-2.3). If you remove 1996, 2005 and 2012, usually, he's anywhere from -10 FRAA to -25 FRAA. Did he miraculously become a better shortstop at age 38 that reversed the last 6 years of trends?

His FRAA affects his WARP and is a significant factor in why he's at 3.1 WARP so far this year though he's had much better offensive seasons WARP-wise.. he's just not getting dinged by FRAA this year for whatever reason.

Sep 12, 2012 22:33 PM
rating: 0
 
Lindemann
(852)

I concur with respect to Desmond. He's not in the top tier of shortstops defensively, but he's got a lot of range. I watch most Nats games and really don't see how he's nearly 12 runs a game worse than average (as of this writing). The Nats are a fine defensive team this year (sixth in Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency as of this writing) and Desmond contributes to that, rather than detracting from it.

Sep 13, 2012 18:22 PM
rating: 0
 
Brian Cartwright

Have you checked for a similar trend at other positions, and are you using the same baseline (replacement level) for all the seasons?

I have observed that offensive production among players at all positions has dropped off since 2009.

Sep 12, 2012 14:20 PM
rating: 1
 
Richard Bergstrom

My point exactly.

Sep 12, 2012 22:26 PM
rating: 0
 
harderj

Enjoyed this and the comments. Thanks.

I made a list off the top of my head of some shortstops not mentioned in the article or comments who have been contributing to that low WAR...it's bleak out there:

Brandon Crawford, Jason Bartlett, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Elliot Johnson, Jed Lowrie (defense and injury, but good against righties this year), Zack Cozart and his sub .300 lead-off obp, Stephen Drew (before his Oakland semi-resurgence), Alex Gonzalez, Dee Gordon, Cliff Pennington, Andrelton Simmons, Tyler Pastornicky, Jamey Carroll...other underperformers?

Sep 12, 2012 16:21 PM
rating: 1
 
Brock Dahlke

Brian Dozier is leading the world in low WAR

Sep 13, 2012 23:49 PM
rating: 0
 
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