September 5, 2012

Value Picks

Relievers for 9/5/12

by Dan Mennella

Arrivals
It seemed pretty improbable only a couple months ago that someone other than Kenley Jansen or Javy Guerra would be closing for the Dodgers at this juncture, but here we are: Guerra all but forgotten after spending a chunk of his season in the minors and Jansen out for the third time in the past year due to an irregular heartbeat. In their places are Brandon League, whom the Dodgers acquired from the Mariners in a deadline deal, and a resurrected Ronald Belisario (Yahoo! 16%, ESPN 15%, CBS 10%), whose career was on the ropes after missing all of 2011 due to visa issues and sitting out 25 games this season for a drug suspension.

Belisario earned the first save for the post-Jansen Dodgers, making him the trendy pick for the hair-trigger types. Manager Don Mattingly said he’d be relying on a trusty closer platoon, however, and sure enough, the recent patterns point toward the more widely owned League getting the bulk of the save chances. The one-week sample is small enough that I’m not ready to write off Belisario entirely, so if you’re trolling for every last save you can get, he’s an option. He generates lots of ground balls and misses enough bats to compensate for a pedestrian walk rate, so he shouldn’t hurt you while you wait to see what shakes out with the platoon. In the meantime, Jansen’s owners should hang on.

Incumbents
We’ve seen ownership rates climb steadily for Luke Gregerson (Yahoo! 18%, ESPN 23%, CBS 14%) over the past couple weeks since he took over for deposed interim closer Dale Thayer. That trend should continue now that Huston Street has suffered a setback in his rehab from a calf strain. Gregerson blew a save chance on Monday and has allowed runs in back-to-back outings, and the Padres have quick-hooked interim closers twice this season already (including Gregerson once), but I’m thinking LG will get a second chance here.

Javier Lopez (Yahoo! 19%, ESPN 32%, CBS 12%) continues to make the most of the chances the Giants give him, converting all five saves since the Lads shifted over to a closer committee. In fact, since Clay Hensley nabbed a save on August 18, no Giant other than Lopez (five) and Sergio Romo (four) has earned one. Lopez is a lefty specialist, so don’t expect a ton of innings out of him, but the saves should be there for the rest of the season.

Since taking over as Houston’s closer, Wilton Lopez (Yahoo! 12%, ESPN 10%, CBS 14%) has seen only four save chances through Monday night. Compounding that problem, Wil-Lo has converted just two of them (at least he’s earned three wins, though, which is a small silver lining for his owners). Very few owners are moving on this guy, presumably because he’s just not racking up saves, but that presents a heck of a value opportunity for those who think he’s due a few. Anyone who owns Greg Holland can tell you that a closer doesn’t have to be on a good team to earn a bunch of saves in a short period of time.

This is your weekly reminder that while Mariano Rivera (Yahoo! 19%, ESPN 15%, CBS 19%) hasn’t officially been ruled out for the season, his return remains highly unlikely. He’s a Hail-Mary stash only.

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