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August 31, 2012

Overthinking It

From Prospect to Project to Prominence

by Ben Lindbergh

With over a month remaining in the regular season, Mike Trout’s campaign already looks like it might be remembered as the best ever recorded by a rookie. But Trout’s 2012 may have another lasting legacy: spoiling future rookie seasons for the rest of us. While watching Trout run roughshod over opposing AL pitchers, it’s easy to forget how rare it is for first-year players to be stars, let alone leading MVP candidates. However, it takes time for most young players (including Trout himself last season) to find their footing: only one other rookie, 26-year-old Yoenis Cespedes, has amassed even a third of the value of the Angels’ outfielder this year.

Even highly rated rookies usually struggle in their initial exposure to big-league pitching, and those who find success at first often suffer in their second trips around the league or in their sophomore seasons, as opponents start to exploit their weaknesses. Some of them recover quickly from these setbacks. Others take years to adjust, and many never put together the production that was expected of them.

The following 10 players ranked among the best 100 prospects in baseball at some point in the past decade, but they’ve all taken their lumps in the big leagues. This season, though, they look like they’re back on track to fulfill their potential. But are they here to stay, or are they deceiving us again?

Chris Carter, Athletics
No one ever questioned Carter’s patience or power. They questioned whether he could hit breaking balls. The answer to the second question still seems to be “no,” but that hasn’t slowed the A’s big first baseman. The 25-year-old Carter entered this season with a .167/.226/.254 career line and just three home runs amassed over 124 plate appearances from 2010-11, but he’s cranked home runs at the fifth-highest rate in the AL in 2012. The problem: only one of his 12 homers came against a breaking ball. Carter is crushing fastballs, batting almost .350 and slugging close to .800 against them, but he’s hit .133 and slugged .244 vs. curveballs and sliders. If those splits persist, it’s unlikely that opposing pitchers will continue to feed him fastballs at an above-average rate, and more breaking balls would be bad news. Carter isn’t out of the woods yet.

Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
Perhaps made complacent by a solid rookie year in 2010, Pedro Alvarez let his conditioning slip and suffered from an injury-filled and ineffective sophomore season. Several weeks in Indianapolis failed to straighten him out, and he hit just .171 for Pittsburgh in September. His third big-league season didn’t start much better: through June 15th, Alvarez hit .189/.254/.373. Since then, though, he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball. Alvarez’s .328 TAv after June 15th ranks eighth among hitters with at least 200 PA (but only third on the Pirates, thanks to Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones), and fortunately for St. Louis, much of his damage has been done against a division rival. His 26 homers tie him for the fourth-highest total in the NL. The power that made Alvarez the second overall pick in the 2008 draft is the same power that’s propelling the Pirates now. There’s still too much swing-and-miss in his game, but it should be smoother sailing from here.

Brett Wallace, Astros
The knock against Wallace in recent years has been that his bat is a little too light for first base. He entered 2012 with a career .248/.323/.354 line, which is a little light for shortstop. So far this season, he’s hitting .298/.367/.500, which is plenty of offense for any position, but that’s not likely to last. Wallace is a liability against lefties, and his success against righties is built on a fluky BABIP. His batting average is unsustainably high for someone who strikes out as often as he does—among hitters with a strikeout rate of at least 29 percent, Wallace has the highest average by almost 40 points—and he’s done most of his damage against fastballs. He makes little contact outside of the zone, so like Carter, Wallace could tank if he starts seeing more slow stuff.