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August 23, 2012

On the Beat

The Difference-Makers

by John Perrotto

Bud Selig's goal when adding a second wild card to each league this season was to get more teams involved in the pennant race. After all, more teams in contention means more interest in more markets, and that means more tickets sold and more revenue generated.

The Commissioner should be happy that more than half of Major League Baseball's 30 teams have at least a 10-percent chance of reaching the postseason according to Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report (going into Wednesday's play). A total of 16 teams had double-digit hopes, and four of them are near locks to play beyond the regular season—the Nationals (100 percent), Yankees (99.7 percent), Rangers (99.6) and Reds (98.9 percent).

Last year's Red Sox and Braves will tell you that the odds can change dramatically, and Yogi Berra will say that it's never over until it's over. However, it's over for those four teams. They can start printing playoff tickets now.

That leaves a dozen teams with at least a somewhat realistic chance of gaining the other six playoff berths. We talked to scouts and front-office types about each of those teams and who they thought was the key player for each heading down the stretch. Here is what they had to say:

Braves (84.5 percent)-2B Dan Uggla: "He's never been a high average guy and he's always struck out a lot, but he's having an awful season. He looks tentative at the point. He is getting caught in between on pitches, and he can't hit off-speed stuff. I think the Braves can get to the postseason without him hitting, but they are going to need him in October."

White Sox (83.5 percent)-RHP Addison Reed: "He's done a good job, but he's still a rookie, and you never how young guys will react when they are in a pennant race for the first time. There was a reason Kenny Williams traded for Brett Myers, and it wasn't just to pitch as a set-up man. He's the safety net in that bullpen."

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12 comments have been left for this article.

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Lou Doench

(4542)

Reds majority owner Bob Castellini is a big fan of Dusty, I'm pretty sure that this season will get him a contract extension unless we get swept out of the playoffs again.

Aug 23, 2012 05:21 AM

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rating: 1

SGreenwell

(18235)

1) Those scouting reports on Stanton and the Twins made me chuckle with delight.

2) Even anonymous scouts are crapping all over Bobby Valentine, yikes. It'll be comical in the next five days when we get the anonymous report from a source inside the Valentine household that says he doesn't put the lid down, and does not recycle.

3) This is an incredibly lazy comparison based on last name and trade history, but is Hanley essentially the Manny of shortstops? He'll play hard for his new team for a couple of years, get dealt or leave via free agency, and repeat. Obviously, he has much less of a track record than ole Manny.

Aug 23, 2012 05:46 AM

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rating: 4

Dave Holgado

(4531)

I am not sure what track record you are referring to with Manny Ramirez, but his actual one does not match up with your characterization. The fact that Manny bounced around to a handful of teams after his age 36 season, and showed only sporadic glimpses of his former Manny-ness in each of those stints, is consistent with the decline phase of just about every formerly great player. From 1994 to 2008, however -- a 15-year run -- he was consistently excellent (offensively, at least). The amount of work that goes into being able to produce like that at the plate is extraordinary, even for the most gifted athlete. And the popular "he doesn't hustle" meme was, in my view, a racially tinged interpretation of his defensive shortcomings (while his arm in RF was, at one time, highly thought of, he was never known for his range or his tracking skills) and occasional space cadet moments.

To be clear, you may well be right that Hanley's performance dip in Miami can be tied to a refusal to play hard (whether due to having already obtained a lucrative multi-year deal, or to being on the outs with Ozzie, or both). But I say we leave Man Ram out of this.

Aug 23, 2012 08:04 AM

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rating: 6

John Carter

(22689)

Surprising comment on the Twins - although I'm not sure what was meant by it. I always thought Ron Gardenhire was an outstanding manager. For many years he has managed to get more wins out of his players than we expected. If that front office person is just saying that anytime a team loses so many games the manager generally gets the ax, OK, so, perhaps, the Twins recognize they needed to change the way they draft and develop talent. If that baseball executive is saying that the Twins aren't even executing the fundamentals properly, that's another story that points an arrow directly at Gardenshire.

Aug 23, 2012 06:45 AM

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SGreenwell

(18235)

I think it's tough to split whether the Twins obsession with crappy futility infielders has been on Gardenhire or Twins' management. At the very least, it seems like those two are in step with one another, and the same goes for the pitching staff's reliance on guys who can't break a pane of glass with their fastball.

Also, I think Bobby Valentine is showing this year that there is some value to just being able to not wear out your welcome. Gardenhire might not be the world's best tactician, but I also haven't heard stories about him pissing off the entire clubhouse. (Then again, I'm on the East Coast and basically just read my local papers and BP, so maybe all the players do hate him and I haven't heard anything about it.)

Aug 23, 2012 07:12 AM

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rating: 2

Dan W.

(42065)

I think this commentary is outdated by a year or two. Minnesota's lineup this year is totally passable, if not world-beating: OBP guys in Span/Revere, four good bats in Mauer/Morneau/Willingham/Doumit, and a surprising power source from the left side of the infield in Plouffe. Sure, Carroll/Dozier/Casilla stink, but that's 2/9 of the lineup, even if it could stand to be improved one way or another. Hell, the team scored more runs than anyone in July, iirc.

The pitching, on the other hand, is a total disaster, and the better question is whether the obsession with pitch-to-contact, low-strikeout righties is Gardenhire's fault or the management.

Aug 23, 2012 07:49 AM

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timber

(61526)

For how many years have we been hearing that Luke Hochevar is going to put it all together "next year?" Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

Aug 23, 2012 07:42 AM

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rating: 2

flyingdutchman

(11087)

Boy, scouting seems easy. Seriously, get me one of those jobs.

By the by, can we get an update from the scout that said this last week, from the August 16th "On the Beat"?:

Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun: "He really looks like he's out of gas, and I can't help but wonder why. I'll leave it at that."

That night Braun went 2-3 with 2 homers, and overall since this scout's comments he's gone 12-27 with 4 home runs. Something tells me this professional scout would continue to say "I can't help but wonder why." Ridiculous.

Aug 23, 2012 10:17 AM

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Sean

(33374)

I know you're just being flippant, but let's not criticize the scouting industry's value (or even a single, anonymous scout) based on a handful of two-sentence comments. Better to learn from them than assume that you could do their jobs.

Aug 23, 2012 10:34 AM

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flyingdutchman

(11087)

Sorry, Sean, but these scouts views are almost all simply obvious observations and baseless conjecture requiring no knowledge that isn't within the reach of the everyday fan. I'm sure there are parts of the scouting profession that require experience and a deep, nuanced knowledge of the game, but I don't see any evidence of it in the overwhelming majority of the quotes.

Aug 23, 2012 10:40 AM

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Sean

(33374)

Fair point that some of them are quite simple, but I think an effort is being made to get more comments in here because people have demanded them. A lot seems to be from MLB or advance scouts who are much more outcome-oriented anyway -- yes, we can come to similar conclusions as well. But, I get value out of the comment about Ivan Nova that suggests he's hanging his breaking ball too much. That's something hard to know without paying a lot of attention -- hard to evaluate in PITCHf/x, too -- and it can be investigated further.

For me, if I learn one thing from an article, it's a success. That's my one (at least in that section).

Aug 23, 2012 11:10 AM

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eighteen

(1432)

Anyone who thinks Dusty Baker would be a good fit in Boston knows nothing about that town.

Aug 24, 2012 10:56 AM

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Prospects Will Break Y... (08/23)

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