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August 13, 2012

Future Shock

Monday Morning Ten Pack

by Kevin Goldstein

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J.O. Berrios, RHP, Twins (Rookie-level Elizabethton)
He wasn't a first-round pick in June, but he was the first pick right after it ended, going 31st overall and ending up just the sixth high school arm selected. He signed quickly for a $1.55 million bonus and he's looked nothing short of fantastic since taking the mound: 27 strikeouts and just seven hits allowed over 16 2/3 innings in the Gulf Coast League, adding four one-hit innings with five more whiffs on Saturday in his Appy League debut. Berrios is undersized at an even six feet tall, but he makes you forget about his size quickly with plus to plus-plus velocity coming out of one of those easy deliveries that makes it look like he's playing catch. He's flashed a good slider so far and has some feel for a changeup; the few pro scouts that have seen Berrios think the Twins may have really found something here.

Mark Cohoon, LHP, Mets (Double-A Binghamton)
Cohoon had the best pitching line of the week, when on Friday night he fired a complete game two-hitter against Harrisburg while walking one and striking out 10. But is he a prospect? It's a mixed bag. He has a solid 3.44 ERA and has walked just 25 batters in 120 1/3 innings, but at the same time, he turns 25 in a month and, even with the big strikeout game, he's punching out Eastern League hitters at a rate of barely over 5.1 per nine. He's really just a strike thrower with a changeup, as he rarely scrapes 90 mph with his fastball. While that won't land him (or shouldn't) on anyone's Mets prospect list, he's one of hundreds in the minors who just might be good enough at his craft to be an occasionally usable No. 5 starter. Of course, of those hundreds with the potential, few actually do it.

Christian Colon, SS?, Royals (Triple-A Omaha)
Since he plays in one of the most loaded systems in baseball, it's been easy to forget about Colon. A budget-minded fourth overall pick in 2010, Colon hit .257/.325/.342 at Double-A Northwest Arkansas last year, and that was enough to take him off of many radars. He was never drafted for his big tools or projection, as he was all about current skills, fundamentals, polish, and makeup. That's all still there, but while repeating the level, the 23-year-old hit .289/.364/.392, and with two hits on Saturday and four more on Sunday, he's 7-for-15 (.467) in his first four Pacific Coast League games. Now, the question is what to do with him. Obviously, he's not going to play shortstop in the big leagues, so he's battling his own middle infield teammate in Johnny Giavotella for the big league second baseman job. Which do you want, the guy who can really hit, like Giavotella, or the guy who is not nearly as good offensively, but is a far superior defensive player who can bunt, play mistake-free baseball and be the toughest guy to strike out on the team? It's really a personal preference in many ways, but Colon is definitely back on the map.

Joey Gallo, 3B, Rangers (Rookie-level AZL Rangers)
A supplemental first-round pick who got easy first-round money with a $2.25 million bonus, Gallo has been the talk of the complex leagues this year, hitting .300/.448/.743 in 41 games that included his league record 17th home run of the season on Sunday night. Despite those crazy numbers, it's hard to say Gallo's stock is suddenly higher than it was the day he signed. He had the best raw power in the draft, so a ton of home runs isn't a surprise, nor is it indicative of anything, since the previous record holder was... Wladimir Balentien. There's still a lot of swing and miss in his game, and his ability to stay at third base is debatable. He's a guy with 80 power, a huge arm, and a great feel for the strike zone, and he's going to have to show it all the way up the ladder. That's a tremendous starting point in terms of skills and tools, and I'm a big fan, but just because he set a complex league record or has nearly a 1.200 OPS doesn't really change his projection much at all.

Robbie Grossman, OF, Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi)
When the Astros acquired Grossman from Pittsburgh as part of the Wandy Rodriguez deal, his .266/.378/.406 line really didn't tell the whole story, as it was the result of a disturbing slow start, and the beginning of a white-hot run before the deal. That run has continued with the Astros, as with an 8-for-12 weekend that included two doubles, a triple and a home run, he's now hitting .358/.482/.537 in 17 Texas League games. His outstanding plate discipline has been well documented, but for the small majority of scouts who believe he can stay in center field, he's a dynamic player with the power for double-digit home runs and the speed for 20 stolen bases. Jordan Schafer has spent the 2012 season proving that he is not Houston's center fielder of the future. At some point in 2013, Grossman will get the chance to prove that he is.

Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds (Double-A Pensacola)
Hamilton had a good weekend, going 5-for-12 with a triple and three walks to lift his Double-A batting line to .288/.410/.405 in 31 games, but of course, that's not the story. The story was six more stolen bases to give him 35 at Double-A and 139 overall in 113 games. That's six shy of what is believed to be the minor league record of 145, set by Vince Coleman in 1983. He's also been getting gunned down quite a bit: he's gotten caught stealing in four straight games, giving him 10 at Double-A and 31 on the season. Of course, 31 times caught stealing seems like a ton, as it's more than a full game of caught stealing. However, he's still managing to be successful at an 82% clip. That's good when judged on the standard stolen base success scale, but it's amazing when you think about the fact that Hamilton is running every time. Every damn time. He knows it, the pitcher knows it, the catcher knows it, and anyone in the stands who has any idea who Hamilton is knows it. That makes his success percentage downright remarkable, and one has to wonder what it could be when his speed is used more judiciously.

Casey Kelly, RHP, Padres (Double-A San Antonio)
This could have been a big year for Kelly. It was hard to spend more than a day in Arizona this spring without somebody telling you how good Kelly looked. Then he started the year with 14 strikeouts and no walks in his first two Triple-A starts before elbow soreness shelved him until late July. Returning to the upper levels after a few complex league warm-ups, Kelly tossed five one-hit innings on Friday in an efficient 65 pitches while walking one and striking out four. He'll likely finish up the year in San Antonio, catch up on innings in the Arizona Fall League, and that just might be enough for this to still end up a pretty big year for Casey Kelly.

Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals (Triple-A Memphis)
Miller was one of the biggest disappointments in prospect land during the first half of the year, and there were plenty of theories as to why his ERA sat at 6.17 at the All-Star break. Command and control issues were one reason, and they're certainly looking corrected, as Miller struck out a season-high 10 on Saturday. In his last five starts he's whiffed 31 over 29 2/3 innings without walking a single batter. More importantly, the stuff is back, as his fastball is back to 92-95 mph, and both his curveball and changeup are generating swings and misses. What was once a big cause for concern is suddenly looking like a bump in the road.

Bruce Rondon, RHP, Tigers (Triple-A Toledo)
Rondon started the year at High-A Lakeland, but he's suddenly on the verge of the majors as his ability to harness his triple-digit heat by throwing strikes has been one of the biggest pleasant surprises in the system this year. Moved to Toledo early in the week, Rondon has thrown a pair of scoreless innings so far, although his outing on Saturday ended after one pitch that the umpire ruled was an intended message. The Tigers have struggled to live up to expectations this year, and part of those struggles have been an inconsistent bullpen; Rondon's surprising leap through the system could have one more step in it.

Mike Zunino, C, Mariners (Short-Season Everett)
As a highly advanced product from a major college program, no player in the 2012 draft was more ready for a high assignment than Zunino, who proved it by going 7-for-12 with two home runs over the weekend, and 14-for-24 with three home runs in his last six Northwest League games. With a .373/.474/.736 line, Zunino is finally done with his introduction to professional baseball, and will move on in a big way to Double-A Jackson this week. You want an accelerated timetable? You got it. A big three weeks here and in the Arizona Fall League, and the third overall pick in June could suddenly be in line for a very long look next spring.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  Prospects,  Scouting,  Minor Leagues

32 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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mdthomp

Glad to see Shelby Miller back on track.

Aug 13, 2012 07:20 AM
rating: 1
 
BillJohnson

Seconded. It also sounds like he's figured out a few of those non-mechanical things that get grouped under the general heading of "makeup." There was a very interesting sort-of-interview with him on MiLB.com recently where he had some things to say about being on the same wavelength as his catcher, and him coming to the realization that when he reaches the majors, he's going to be throwing to a catcher (Yadier Molina) that he's not going to shake off. One gets the impression that that was kind of an "aha!" insight for him, and coincided with the turnaround.

Aug 13, 2012 08:02 AM
rating: 1
 
mdthomp

Good for him. Hopefully the new attitude sticks and he can salvage his season. Would be nice to see him with the big club in September to get his feet wet for a major league role in 2013.

Aug 13, 2012 08:06 AM
rating: 0
 
lipitorkid

Kevin... as a fantasy owner I'm very intrigued by a middle infielder who can steal 80+ bases at the big league level. However, I was looking at the list of the top 10 single season leaders in MILB history:

Vince Coleman
Donnell Nixon
Billy Hamilton
James Johnston
Jeff Stone
Alan Wiggins
Allan Lewis
Ovid Nicholson
Marcus Lawton
Chris Morris

This list does not inspire me with confidence as far as what Billy Hamilton might be capable of at the MLB level.

Aug 13, 2012 07:47 AM
rating: 0
 
Shaun P.
(676)

You can't judge Hamilton vs. those other guys on just their SB totals, though, right? Context is really important - total skill set, age, level, offensive environment, etc. I get your point, but I don't think this is enough data to question Hamilton's future.

Aug 13, 2012 08:34 AM
rating: 3
 
BillJohnson

Note also that the flameouts on that list didn't necessarily have much to do with baseball skills, or lack of them. Alan Wiggins looked like a useful player for a while, but fought a losing battle with cocaine addiction. Donell Nixon was following in the footsteps of big brother Otis until a rather nasty compound fracture, and was never the same after that.

Aug 13, 2012 09:16 AM
rating: 2
 
lipitorkid

You are right of course. I just thought it was interesting. Taking a look at this list where would you place Billy Hamilton's career ceiling?

Tim Raines
Kenny Lofton
Maury Wills
Jose Reyes
Vince Coleman
Scott Podsednik

Aug 13, 2012 09:29 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Want to have some fun. Go look up what Jeff Stone did in 1984. He looked like he could be amazing.

Aug 13, 2012 09:32 AM
 
Daddyboy

Yes, that was some Stratomatic card.

Aug 13, 2012 11:38 AM
rating: 2
 
Leg4206

Will Hamilton stick as a middle infielder? I only saw one play at the futures game, but in that instance at least, he didn't look like future middle infielder.

Aug 13, 2012 10:13 AM
rating: 1
 
eighteen

82% success rate in the low minors and AA doesn't inspire confidence, either. Being Really Fast is not enough to be successful at the higher levels.

Aug 13, 2012 13:29 PM
rating: -2
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I think you are really underrating the fact that he's running EVERY TIME.

Aug 13, 2012 13:30 PM
 
eighteen

I'll be the first to say you know more about it than I do; but how is that relevant? Big leaguers won't be expecting him to run?

I don't doubt the kid can improve; but right now, seems to me his minor league success rate translates to pretty much break-even in the majors.

Aug 13, 2012 16:39 PM
rating: -3
 
Behemoth

Think about it this way. If I tell you that you have to run fifty percent of the time, you're going to cut out the situations where you're most likely to be caught - pitchers with a quick delivery, catchers with really good arms, and situations where you can't get enough of a lead. If you have to run every time, then you have to run in all these unfavourable situations, so your success rate will be significantly lower.

Aug 14, 2012 06:30 AM
rating: 2
 
DDriesen

Kevin,

What are your thoughts on Adam Eaton in AZ? Is he likely to be a call-up and have any lasting ability?

Aug 13, 2012 08:39 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Despite the huge numbers, I have a hard time seeing him as more than a good 4th outfielder.

Aug 13, 2012 09:32 AM
 
robbtodd

I've read that some people don't think he has the speed to stay in center and that his bat won't play in the corners. But he seems to be able to get on base. What are his biggest flaws?

Aug 13, 2012 09:42 AM
rating: 0
 
jsdspud
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

What no Xander Bogaerts? You must really be biased against him, or the Sox, or the American League East. Just more sarcasm for those that did not pick up on it.

Aug 13, 2012 09:18 AM
rating: -22
 
delatopia

It wasn't that funny the first time, and when you have to label it as as joke, well ...

Aug 13, 2012 09:29 AM
rating: 14
 
Ryan Parker

Zunino is playing for Everett. I live in Eugene frequent Em's games all the time and can only wish Zunino was on the roster.

Aug 13, 2012 09:47 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member John Erhardt
BP staff

This has been corrected. Thanks.

Aug 13, 2012 09:58 AM
 
harderj

Speaking of rosters, any sense of when Mike Zunino will show up in the Team Tracker? A search shows no results.

Aug 19, 2012 03:03 AM
rating: 0
 
AaronSF

And those of us now catching up on KG's late-night tweets can only speculate on what the paragraph on Oswaldo Arcia would have said ..

Aug 13, 2012 09:47 AM
rating: 0
 
kcboomer

The best thing Colon has going for him is that the front office of the Royals has no confidence in Giavotella.

Aug 13, 2012 11:44 AM
rating: 3
 
Eddie Bajek

I know you hate fantasy questions, but if I had the top pick in a keeper draft and the top two available options next year were Mike Zunino and Oscar Tavares, would I have any reason to draft Zunino before Oscar?

Aug 13, 2012 12:56 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

No.

Aug 13, 2012 13:30 PM
 
19braves77

I saw one of the Lookouts vs Wahoos game where Hamilton stole two bases back to back off of Allen Webster. Webster didn't even both with him. One scout sitting behind me commented that he believes that you will eventually see teams beaning him to start off games so he has something to think about on the base paths with the hope it slows him down some.... It wouldn't shock me at all with Reds play it safe with Billy after he gets the record.

Aug 13, 2012 13:52 PM
rating: 0
 
gweedoh565

What? That makes zero sense. Put the fastest guy in baseball on base automatically? What? I...what?

Unless you bean him really really hard in the foot. Ok. That would make sense.

Aug 14, 2012 12:50 PM
rating: 0
 
kdbart

The Mets promoted Cohoon to Triple A Buffalo a couple of months ago and he got lit up in the 3 starts he made there and was returned to Double A. Double A seems to be where he'll top out.

Aug 13, 2012 15:03 PM
rating: -1
 
richardkr34

What kind of present/future grades are scouts putting on Berrios's slider? Or are there not enough detailed reports?

Aug 13, 2012 15:16 PM
rating: 0
 
kasgard

Kevin, have there ever been studies on "running too much" Is there some point where the energy exerted could potentially impact Hamilton at the plate? Might a 20% reduction in attempts lead to increased ISO? Sounds nitpicky but i'd love to know if there's anymore "there" at the plate for Billy

Aug 13, 2012 15:20 PM
rating: 0
 
AWBenkert

Gallo would be wise to avoid Umberto's Clam House.

Jan 08, 2013 12:29 PM
rating: 0
 
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