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August 8, 2012

Value Picks

Relievers for 8/8/12

by Dan Mennella

Arrivals
It’s not altogether surprising that Rangers closer Joe Nathan needed a blow this weekend. After all, he’s nearly 38 years old and two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Plus, he relies on an arm-taxing swing-and-miss repertoire consisting of a hard fastball, a slider, and a curve. 

What is surprising, though, is that Texas’ two save chances in Nathan’s absence went to right-hander Alexi Ogando (Yahoo! 33%, ESPN 7%, CBS 24%) rather than setup man Mike Adams, who has 19 holds this season and literally has not appeared in any innings other than the eighth or ninth. Not to mention, Adams had established himself as a lethal late-innings reliever with the Padres before arriving in Texas at last season’s trade deadline.

In any event, the Rangers’ decision to defer to Ogando worked out; he converted both saves, the first one easily and the second with a bit of trouble. Nathan, meanwhile, said he received a cortisone shot in his right shoulder, which is fairly alarming. I’m not saying he won’t return soon, but until we see him back on the mound and pitching effectively, Ogando is definitely worth an add in all formats.

Are you familiar with Al Alburquerque (Yahoo! 1%, ESPN 0%, CBS 0%)? If not, no worries; even some of the most successful sports pundits aren’t. The Tigers’ right-hander came out of nowhere last season to post a strikeout rate as cartoonish as his name: 13.92 K/9. But just as quickly as he burst onto the scene, he rescinded into obscurity, undergoing major surgery in the offseason and missing the entire season to date as a result.

Now, Al-Al is on minor league rehab assignment and nearing a return to Detroit’s bullpen; he could be a strong value play if you’re looking for a one-trick pony to fill your final roster spot. Alburquerque walks a lot of batters, and his arm could explode again at any minute because of how hard he throws and how much he leans on his slider, but the strikeouts should be there (and he could stumble into some holds too). Between his ability to miss bats and induce weak contact—.250 BABIP and 57 percent groundball rate in 2011—the guy was basically unhittable last season.

Incumbents
The irony of Wilton Lopez (Yahoo! 12%, ESPN 11%, CBS 18%) finally seizing the Astros’ closing job by attrition—after the trade of Brett Myers and failure of Francisco Cordero—is that he could easily have earned it sooner on merit. In any event, the job is Lopez’s now, and if you need saves, he’s well worth the add. He’s a good pitcher, and if you’re passing because of the terrible team for which he pitches, remember that there’s little correlation between team record and save chances.