The Process

The Mariners' Missed Opportunity

by Bradley Ankrom

A true no. 1 starter is the rarest commodity in baseball, and the Seattle Mariners have had one in Felix Hernandez for the better part of a decade. Unfortunately, much of Hernandez’s value has been wasted on uncompetitive clubs: only twice since he reached the big leagues in 2005 have the Mariners finished above .500.

The subject of dealing their homegrown superstar is a sensitive one for Mariners fans, but an objective look at the facts suggests that the future of the organization would be much brighter if general manager Jack Zduriencik had moved Hernandez to a contender for a package of young impact bats that are close to big-league ready prior to this summer's non-waiver trade deadline.

Why Hernandez is so valuable
Since 2008, Felix Hernandez has been one of the game’s dozen most valuable pitchers, averaging 231 innings, 2.94 strikeouts per walk, and a 2.89 ERA in four full seasons. Mariners pitchers are helped by their pitcher-friendly home park, but Hernandez has been nearly as effective on the road over the course of his career. In fact, no pitcher in baseball has thrown 1,500 innings since 2005 with better ERA, H/9, HR/9, SO/9, and BB/9 rates than Hernandez has had away from Safeco Field. Overall, Hernandez ranks among the top 15 pitchers in PWARP since 2005, though he is the only one who will begin the 2013 season under the age of 29.

The final key to Hernandez’s value is the team-friendliness of his contract. He’s signed through 2014 at an annual average of $19.75 million, which is a bargain compared to the deals signed by Matt Cain (average of $21.25 million per season through 2017) and Cole Hamels ($24 million/year through 2018) earlier this year.

Pitcher	2013 Age	W-L	ERA	GS	IP	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9	Contract
Felix Hernandez	27	94-72	3.20	227	1543.3	8.3	2.7	0.7	$39.5M through 2014
Matt Cain	28	79-76	3.30	223	1459.0	7.5	3.1	0.8	$127.5M through 2017
Cole Hamels	29	88-59	3.39	200	1300.0	8.5	2.3	1.1	$144M through 2018

Why he should have been traded
Despite the major-league team’s current hot streak, Seattle’s core is full of questions.

Coming into the year, it appeared that the next competitive Mariners team would have an infield anchored by Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, and Kyle Seager. Seager is the only one of the three who hasn't fallen well short of expectations this year, and he also possesses the fewest physical tools. Smoak, the centerpiece of the 2010 trade that sent Cliff Lee to Texas, was recently demoted to Triple-A after hitting .217/.292/.368 as a Mariner, and Ackley has followed up a strong 2011 debut with a .249 TAv sophomore effort.

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John Geer

(44)

"a package of young impact bats that are close to big-league ready"

So, what are we talking here, Profar and Olt? Seriously, what's the return on Felix, and who among the contenders best fits that bill?

Aug 02, 2012 04:55 AM