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BP Unfiltered: The Best Trade Rumor Yet

July 26, 2012

From a recent article by long-time â€‹Cincinnati Enquirer​ columnist Paul Daughterty:

"One Reds insider said a straight-up Ondrusek-for-Victorino deal was nixed by The Club."

First, some facts:

Victorino is 31 years old. Ondrusek is 27 years old. 
Victorino will be a free agent after the 2012 season. Ondrusek will be a free agent after the 2016 season.
Victorino is making $9.5 million this season. Ondrusek is making $492,500.

And now, some numbers:

Ondrusek, career WARP: -0.2
Victorino, career WARP: 21.1

Ondrusek, 2012 WARP: -0.1
Victorino, 2012 WARP: 1.6

You fathom the facts. You know the numbers. And so I ask you, dear reader: Do you nix, or do you not nix?

Thank you for reading

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Ben Lindbergh

 

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zasxcdfv
7/26
Well, you don't want to upset Drew Stubbs.
Reply to zasxcdfv
jrbdmb
7/26
Not nix. Especially this year, the Reds may look back and regret the day they turned down an extra win or two.
Reply to jrbdmb
mattymatty2000
7/26
Shane Victorino's well-known distaste for Cincinnati chili likely played a role.
Reply to mattymatty2000
mgolovcsenko
7/26
Reds should pull the trigger on that trade based on Big O's pitching Wednesday night alone!
Reply to mgolovcsenko
pobothecat
7/26
The chance to get a natural lead off hitter and consistent production in CF for the final two months of a year in which in they have the best shot at a pennant in what, a decade? Wow.
Reply to pobothecat
Oleoay
7/26
What makes you think Baker would bat Victorino leadoff? Baker would probably bat him second because that's where he bats in Philadelphia.
Reply to Oleoay
MikeLHenderson
7/26
Without even stepping outside his office, Walt Jocketty may have proved that there's at least one greater fool than Ruben Amaro.
Reply to MikeLHenderson
greywilliams
7/26
How much is a win worth? The projections say Cinci currently has a >90% chance of making the playoffs. After that, face it, it's a crapshoot no matter who is in CF.

The stats say to expect roughly 1 win more with Victorino around. That's assuming continued availability.

The salary numbers say to expect ~$2M additional expense.

Clubhouse chemistry is unpredictable but must be considered. Of course that's less unpredictable for the GM.

Bottom line, it's not a no-brainer. I'd keep my $2M and maybe look around for a different CF upgrade trade, but I wouldn't be critical of a club that DID the trade, either.
Reply to greywilliams
fatted
7/26
But you agree that they need a CF? What will your opinion be on Aug. 1st if they haven't done anything?
Reply to fatted
Oleoay
7/26
It's possible when he was hit by a pitch on the 23rd and lost feeling in his arm, there were some health concerns. He's performed well since though.
Reply to Oleoay
Schere
7/27
Well, let's not ignore that Ondrusek is projected to be worth 0.1 WARP not just this year, but each year for the time that he's under team control. So, that totally changes things.
Reply to Schere