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August 1, 2012 Future ShockThe Midseason Top 50 Prospects
Have a Kindle? Additional commentary on Kevin's Midseason Top 50 is available in The Call-Up 2012, our just-published midseason update to Baseball Prospectus 2012. 1. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers (Preseason #4) 2. Wil Myers, OF, Royals (Preseason #19) 3. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Orioles (Preseason #6) 4. Oscar Taveras, OF, Cardinals (Preseason #23)
BP Comment Quick Links redguy12588 (68418) I disagree with Taillons ranking. He's been inconsistent, but he's still got a 3:1 K:BB ratio and it looks like hes finally on a roll. I'm not sure how a 3.86 ERA in July with 17 Ks in 30.1 innings = on a roll. I'm not being snarky, but we were told that this is the year that the reigns come off and he dominates and he just hasn't done that. Aug 01, 2012 10:14 AM Nater1177 (38541) Thanks for the in process look at the list, though I am curious what Xander Bogaerts did to drop out of the top 50. You had him at 32 in preseason and from I had heard/read he had more than held his own in High A as 19 year old (.287/.364/.485). He's the guy who generates the most questions, which is funny, because I swear to you all that he was 51. My biggest concern is that he's not only not a SS, but maybe not even a 3B. He could still move up if he keep it up in the second half. Aug 01, 2012 10:15 AM amazin_mess (9525) KG Defense is a significant factor in anyone's ratings, no? Anyone who rates players without considering defensive skills and positional scarcity isn't doing it right. Aug 01, 2012 12:53 PM amazin_mess (9525) I agree. But KG's ratings are different than say, BA. I just wonder how much emphasis he places on defense. It seems like players that aren't good defenders or don't have a true position get downgraded. SaberTJ (10045) Why wouldn't they get downgraded? A position player's value is based upon his offensive production relative to position. If Bogarts can't play SS he's going to need to hit even more to remain an elite prospect. The offensive level needed goes up even higher if he can't stay at 3b. McCaffery (46961) Turned out Ryan Braun couldn't stick at 3B either. Wonder what became of that guy? hardyvan123 (34213) curious about Gary Brown, had a slow start but is coming on but a bit old maybe to show up on the top 50? nikitos1979 (67063) Surprised to see Trevor May on the list after his recent struggles. Jivas (649) I'm surprised as well. MattWinks (63636) Kevin for context when was this list compiled just to know what information was available when you made the ranking? JuanBobo (67142) I assume Trevor Bauer is not eligible for this list, but out of curiosity, do you think his stock has fallen due to his rough MLB starts? amazin_mess (9525) Surprised Wilmer Flores didnt crack the mid-40s, especially when guys like May did. Scott44 (37738) Without giving away rankings, how many '12s would fit into your top 25 and who would you rate the highest? meloyellow15 (62728) I'd be interested in Kevin's answer to this also. Would guys like Almora even be in consideration for the top 50? earpbartman (54073) Better prospect -- 19-yr old Walker in AA now, or 19-yr old Teheran in AA two years ago? Same strikeout rate, other numbers better for Teheran, edge to Walker for breaking ball, edge to Teheran for changeup jackweiland (28328) I don't understand how Baez can be #15 when all the twitter trolls complain that KG has an anti-Cubs bias. tfierst (30014) Was there any thought to adding Hicks? This year has to be his best year thus far, right? Does it get him close? Jivas (649) Thanks for the list, KG. sandriola (31950) How do you know that the list could have been posted on the site on Monday? Nothing in Joe's comment says the list would be posted as soon as the ebook is available. He said they'd post the list as soon as they could after the ebook was available. Maybe the ebook publisher demanded a 48 hour wait time to post content from the ebook. Maybe you're right and they made a business decision to hold off and thereby go back on Joe's word. We just don't know what the terms of the contract are, so to call out Joe over a comment he made seems a tad harsh, especially when he didn't promise a Monday release in that comment. Jivas (649) Good point! Obviously hadn't thought of that. MatternK (57109) Thanks Kevin! I really can't believe that Davidson and Owings is ahead of Xander Bogaerts. Wow. bheikoop (32208) Surprised to see two things: maxjusttyped (68113) I'm surprised KG has Owings ranked in the Top 50. Seems to me his approach issues (3.5% BB% to 24.3% K% in AA) will hold him back from being a productive offensive player. Peter7899 (48545) Here's the thing folks, if your guy is on the list. HE'S GOOD. Don't think he's getting slighted for being #34 instead of #14. Not a big enough difference to matter. timber (61526) I realize I can get a free Kindle reader and install it on my computer, but I would really like to see this in some other format as well. Even a .pdf would be great. Jivas (649) Also conspicuous by his absence, at least at the tail end of this list: Jedd Gyorko. KG has been pretty vocal about his belief in Gyorko's ability to hit. I'd bet $1 he's on the "just missed" list. Shaun P. (676) Not quite what you asked for, but I too would like the see the "just missed" list of the next 5 guys or so. Gumby (68462) Bonifacio is one guy you rank a lot higher than most other lists. He's on my radar - what excites you about him? Kreylix (389) I see you're not hot on Dan Straily, despite his great performance in the PCL. Are you seeing flaws? This guy (8849) I'd say putting Straily in the top 50 is decent evidence that Kevin is, in fact, hot on him. Matt Commins (63058) Seems like Straily is ready for the big leagues right now. Maybe he has a low ceiling and KG only projects to be a #3-4 (which isn't bad at all)? Danny Hultzen, who has a low floor and ceiling. projects to be a solid #3 is rated #27. Don't know if there's a strike against Straily? aso5018 (51979) How close were Alen Hanson and Greg Polanco? And does Clay Holmes get any consideration for top 100? Jivas (649) I find it amazing when people jump all over KG (or any of the other prominent prospect raters) when they provide a player ranking substantially different than the consensus. My *favorite* thing about these lists is to see which players are rated substantially different, and why. It's an indication that KG (or KLaw, etc.) has access to information about that player that we don't, and allows to evaluate whether maybe, just maybe, it's time for us to update our prior beliefs about the prospect. Andrew (25137) Kind of surprised not to see Kolten Wong as it seem you're a pretty big fan. Just outside of 50? Either way, thanks for the update! I'm a huge fan of Kolten Wong, but there is some limit to his upside. Aug 01, 2012 15:31 PM oakiegu007 (33988) Kevin, do people frequently confuse your rankings for fantasy rankings? I notice people rarely mention defense when they're complaining or commenting on a ranking. How could you not include Stetson Allie? He totally went to the same high school that I did! Aug 01, 2012 12:42 PM timber (61526) Darn, I wish "reply" worked. Kevin, if a .pdf is no good, then how about issuing it in plain old bound paper format? Call me a dinosaur, but I still prefer dead trees for reading. Nils J (52643) Hey KG, I saw you mention Max Kepler on twitter today. Just curious, what does he profile as? I saw he got some time at 1B recently, what's that all about? Thanks! gregarakaki (35856) Profar - What's the anticipated ETA given you have Andrus and Kinsler at the Texas keystone? edragovic (46489) Hey Kevin - What has happened to Julio Teheran? Who is the Braves 2nd best prospect(Bethancourt?)? Were they even close to the Top 50? Richard Bergstrom (36532) Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway. I'm a little surprised Adams moved up into the Top 50 considering his ML debut wasn't that great. joseconsuervo (59340) Obviously not the place but how does Giolito compare to not only the other draft picks but current prospects in upside? Unless you're Strasburg or Harper I can't see someone being put on this list, but does this sort of comparison exist? Sean (33374) Underappreciated bonus of having the list published here, even if it contains different content than the ebook: Kevin's been answering questions. Lots of value in that.
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In before people act like paying 4 bucks is the biggest travesty in their life.