CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Future Shock: Teams Th... (07/25)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (07/25)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (07/27)
Next Article >>
What You Need to Know:... (07/26)

July 25, 2012

Transaction Analysis

Hanley Goes to Hollywood UPDATED

by Colin Wyers, R.J. Anderson and Kevin Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

IN THIS ISSUE

National League

According to Yahoo's Tim Brown, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi, and numerous other reports, the Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to acquire Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate for Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGoughIf and when the trade is announced and/or the details are finalized, we'll update this post.

MIAMI MARLINS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Acquire RHP Nathan Eovaldi and RHP Scott McGough from the Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B-R Hanley Ramirez and LHP Randy Choate. [7/24]

The headliner so far is Nathan Eovaldi, who’s bounced between Double-A and the majors over the past two seasons without managing to establish himself as a starting pitcher. He’s a young, cost-controlled pitcher the Marlins can use to fill out the back of their rotation, but right now he doesn’t look like much more than that.  The Dodgers have limited his innings to keep him healthy (he had Tommy John surgery in high school, and missed a month of his first season in the minors with an oblique strain), so the Marlins have to hope that with experience he can refine his secondary pitches and take advantage of his mid-90s fastball. —Colin Wyers

A fifth-round pick in 2011, McGough is an intriguing relief prospect who still has plenty to work on. At six feet tall and with a slight build, he's on the small side, but he has an incredibly fast arm capable of firing 93-95-mph fastballs that touch 97, although there is some effort in his delivery. His command and control is no better than average, and his ultimate role as either a late-inning reliever or just another bullpen piece will come down to the development of his slider. He'll flash a plus one with heavy break, but it's a rarity, as he has a tendency to overthrow the pitch and has trouble keeping it in the strike zone. He has a good ceiling and a decent floor because of his velocity, but he's only at High-A and is not your standard quick-moving college relief prospect. —Kevin Goldstein

A Marlins fan knew what to expect in the infield on Monday morning. They knew that Carlos Lee would be at first base, Omar Infante and Jose Reyes would play up the middle, and Hanley Ramirez would start at third base. Now, on Wednesday morning, the erasure of Infante and Ramirez has left said Marlins fan dizzy with all the mediocre choices. Ostensibly, Miami will use some combination of Emilio Bonifacio, Greg Dobbs, Donovan Solano, or Chris Coghlan at third base and second base. Thus far, the Marlins have used Bonifacio at second base, and Dobbs and Solano at third base. If only they had a young third baseman to plug in. Alas, Miami will have to address those positions during the offseason.  —R.J. Anderson

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart
Return to Top

Acquire 3B-R Hanley Ramirez and LHP Randy Choate from the Miami Marlins for RHP Nathan Eovaldi and RHP Scott McGough. [7/24]

On one hand, Hanley Ramirez is something of a cipher these days. From 2011 through 2012, he’s been essentially a league-average hitter. And although PECOTA sees him bouncing back to his career norms for the rest of the season, that’s an average expectation, not any sort of a guarantee. More troubling is his glove; he’s never been a solid defender at shortstop, but there’s some reason to believe that he hasn’t adjusted well to playing third base either, with a FRAA of -13.3 so far this year.

The Dodgers are willing to gamble, though, because what they do have right now can’t even be called league average; between shortstop and third base they have a combined .242 TAv, and that’s with the injured Dee Gordon and Juan Uribe playing within a handful of points of their rest-of-season PECOTAs. If Hanley’s upside is a return to something approaching his All-Star years and his downside is puttering along at around league average, the Dodgers have made a gamble they simply can’t lose. Don Mattingly is going to have his own version of Sophie’s choice to make when Gordon returns: "You can lose Juan Uribe or Dee Gordon from your lineup. Pick one and only one." But either way, the Dodgers have improved their lineup over what it was yesterday.

For the Marlins, Ramirez has always been a bit superfluous (and discontented) ever since they signed Jose Reyes, and this clears up a fair amount of the money that they’re setting on fire (or paying to Heath Bell, I forget which). According to LA Times‚Äč beat writer Dylan O. Hernandez, the Dodgers aren't getting any money from the Marlins, which would suggest that the newly flush Los Angeles franchise will be on the hook for the remainder of Hanley's $15 million salary this season (about $6 million) as well as the $31.5 million due to him over the next two years. For right now, this looks like a return to the bad old ways of the firesale Marlins of the past, but in theory the club could use the cash freed up to retool the team in the offseason, so it’s best to wait and see what the Marlins actually do before drawing any conclusions about their intentions.

The Dodgers also pick up Randy Choate, a marginally useful bullpen arm who’s slightly better than what you can find on the scrap heap but not so much better that the Marlins are going to miss him. —Colin Wyers

Although Choate is small fish compared to Ramirez, he is an excellent situational reliever. Choate’s multi-year True Average against left-handed batter is .178; Mario Mendoza, for reference, had a career .190 TAv. Presumably, Shawn Tolleson will go to make room for Choate, in which case the Dodgers will have two southpaw relievers. So long as Don Mattingly only uses Choate against lefties in high-leverage situations, everyone involved should be thrilled. —R.J. Anderson

Colin Wyers is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Colin's other articles. You can contact Colin by clicking here
R.J. Anderson is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see R.J.'s other articles. You can contact R.J. by clicking here
Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

31 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Richard Bergstrom

I see trades like this and I can't understand Yankee haters. Loria should've been booed out of the sport a decade ago.

Jul 25, 2012 01:32 AM
rating: 7
 
smallmanoncampus

What does this have to do with the Yankees?

Jul 25, 2012 01:55 AM
rating: 5
 
Shaun P.
(676)

I'm guessing - let me repeat, guessing - its a reference to so many people bemoaning the Yanks "buying championships" and "buying every All Star free agent" and spending more money than every other team put together.

In other words, while you might not like the Yanks spending $200M+/season on payroll, at least you never ever see them abandoning ship just to save cash. I think its quite a relevant and true point.

Jul 25, 2012 07:22 AM
rating: 13
 
Richard Bergstrom

That's basically it, Shaun. The Yankees, year in and year out, try to do whatever it takes to win and I can't understand why people get more upset about that than Loria.

Jul 25, 2012 08:31 AM
rating: 3
 
Chucko

I'll give 'em credit: buying everything in order to win is absolutely cooler than selling everything knowing you'll therefore lose. Though while one is morally superior (IMHO), both are tiresome to behold from the outside, and particularly so as the number of repetitions increases.

Jul 25, 2012 12:17 PM
rating: 3
 
Pat Folz

"...in theory the club could use the cash freed up to retool the team in the offseason..." Sure, OR use it to do legal battle with the SEC :p

I used to be something of a Marlins apologist. "They signed Carlos Delgado!" "The Beckett trade was defensible!" No more. To hell with this team.

Jul 25, 2012 02:19 AM
rating: 7
 
bheikoop

Didn't they trade Beckett for Hanley? That worked out pretty well in terms of a return on investment. Let's see what they get for Hanley.

Jul 25, 2012 08:24 AM
rating: 0
 
ddufourlogger

Going to be really hard to get fannies in those new seats now. All they did this offseason....new stadium....and Loria has them blow it up in a week. How glad do you think Albert is right NOW that he signed elsewhere??

Jul 25, 2012 12:13 PM
rating: 2
 
saint09

I'll assume the Yankee reference is in relation to Loria pocketing Yankee tax dollars.

Jul 25, 2012 02:48 AM
rating: 0
 
GoTribe06

When I read the Yankees comment I thought he was referring to the Yankees commitment of every resource to acquiring the best talent in hopes of maintaining a championship team. They have moved in a slightly more conservative direction since Hank took over, but the Yankees are not selling off their popular players.

Count me among those who get frustrated at the ability of the Yankees to pick from the top of the FA list every year, but I would rather have them in my league than the Marlins.

Jul 25, 2012 04:31 AM
rating: 3
 
Richard Bergstrom

Yep that's what I meant about the Yankees. Yes, they've gotten a bit more conservative, but year in and year out no one ever questions that they try to win.

You'd think people would admire that in a capitalist society, but the problem with winning is it can create some upset losers.

Jul 25, 2012 08:44 AM
rating: 0
 
Sharky

I don't get the vitriol. Hanley was very expensive, seemed to sulk, and his production was way off all-star levels. The Marlins got out from under a bad contract. The Dodgers, on the other hand, just throw around TV money. They become the new Yankees (maybe that's Richard's point).

Jul 25, 2012 04:13 AM
rating: 11
 
JoshC77

I agree. A look at Hanley's career numbers and one has to wonder that when he retires, if we will go back and say he peaked at age 24. Not saying he can't rebound, but his name value right now is far bigger than his actual production.

The Dodgers are taking a gamble, but one a big market team with money (finally) can afford to make.

Jul 25, 2012 04:20 AM
rating: 2
 
cdmyers

This. It isn't AA dumping Vernon Wells, but it is dumping a big contract that seems well down the road towards going bad to a team that's willing to take a gamble in order to make the playoffs this year.

I suspect that the vitriol is coming from a deep distrust of the Marlins. Dumping bad contracts is good if the money goes back into the team. If it just goes back to Loria (or the SEC), who cares?

Jul 25, 2012 05:43 AM
rating: 3
 
Richard Bergstrom

A bad Ramirez is still better than a lot of shortstops and third basemen, which is why the Dodgers acquired him.

I don't consider the Dodgers the new Yankees though. They need to show, year in and year out, that they're committed to winning. Right now, it's just a honeymoon period with ownership. If anything, the closest thing to the "new Yankees" might be the Angels who also try to win each year, payroll be damned. Sure, other teams also try to win like the Rangers, Rays, etc but the Angels buy up the free agent market a lot going back to the Gary Matthews Jr days.

Jul 25, 2012 08:50 AM
rating: 5
 
eighteen

A bad Ramirez is indeed better than a lot of SS/3B's, but not a bad Ramirez making $15m/yr.

Jul 25, 2012 13:58 PM
rating: 1
 
Richard Bergstrom

Ramirez is still young enough to have some upside, and it makes the honeymoon with the new owners that much sweeter. He may still underperform and be overpaid, but with players like Kemp etc locked into long term contracts, it's not like the Dodgers will be crippled by taking on Hanley for a few years.

Jul 25, 2012 17:48 PM
rating: 0
 
Pat Folz

For me, two things. One, I don't think he's really declined that much. His secondary skills are all still there -- power, walks, and steals. His BA and BABIP are well below career norms and he's still a league-average (or slightly above) hitter per TAv, wOBA, and OPS. If his BA bounces back even a little, which is likely, he's at least solidly above average, with some possibility of getting back to elite territory.

Two, they said this was the year, things have changed, they have a new stadium and a new commitment to fielding a championship team! Yeah, that lasted like 90 games. They're 8 games out in the Wild Card despite Reyes and Ramirez having subpar seasons and Johnson and Bell sucking ass. They could plausibly get back in it this year and would have been a favorite again next year, even without any major moves. Instead they dumped one of their best players -- and the closest thing they had to a homegrown star -- for a #4/5 starter and a Tim Collins starter kit. Oh, and "payroll flexibility," snicker.

Jul 25, 2012 11:29 AM
rating: 0
 
JoshC77

Just a thought, but gotta wonder if the Marlins are regretting the Carlos Lee deal. He didn't get them any closer and now they trade Hanley. Not only that, but their heir apparent at 3b in Matt Dominguez was traded to the Astros in the Lee deal.

Jul 25, 2012 05:04 AM
rating: 11
 
Hendo

The firesale Marlins of the past at least waited until they'd bought themselves a World Series win before they burned the team down.

Not that I don't wish Loria everything that's coming to him -- and that's coming from a Nationals fan, whose town probably still wouldn't have a team were it not for Loria's malfeasance, enabled by Selig and 28 other owners. But vitriol aside, in this case, there never was much to burn down on this 2012 Marlins squad. Jettisoning an increasingly dead weight to try to buoy the overall system makes sense.

Jul 25, 2012 07:15 AM
rating: 3
 
Richard Bergstrom

The Marlins didn't need to wait for a World Series. They got their shiny new, publicly financed stadium which, at worst, increases the value of the franchise.

Jul 25, 2012 08:47 AM
rating: 6
 
PeterBNYC

One unintended benefit from a Mets fan- we will now see whether Jose Reyes can really carry a team, or if he is just going to be stranded with a meaningless (but lucrative) career in South Florida, with a bad team always "rebuilding", and without a ring to be seen to the end of time. (This is what's called schadenfreude, folks).

Jul 25, 2012 09:28 AM
rating: 0
 
Randy Brown
(189)

What did Jose Reyes do to you? The Mets didn't even offer him a contract. What was he supposed to do, stay in Flushing for the league minimum?

Jul 25, 2012 09:59 AM
rating: 10
 
jtwalsh

Colin, RJ, and Kevin,

I quick Thank You to all for offering us these real time TAs. I realize it must be difficult to get this analysis out so quickly, but I think it is more valuable when the transaction itself is so new. Kudos.

Jul 25, 2012 11:13 AM
rating: 13
 
eighteen

WRF is going on in Miami's front office? First, they trade mediocre-but-cheap talent to acquire mediocre-but-expensive Carlos Lee; now they do a salary dump to acquire spare parts.

Can anyone see a plan there?

Jul 25, 2012 13:57 PM
rating: 1
 
marshaja

I don't really get it. I have no problem with the Marlins getting rid of Hanley as he has regressed, but surely there was a better deal out there.

Jul 25, 2012 14:53 PM
rating: 2
 
jfive613

Great turnaround on all of the trade evaluations so far. Very impressive guys.

This trade makes sense on both sides. Marlins got out of a contract that was starting to become a hindrance and the Dodgers didn't give up much to pick up a needed bat.

Hopefully Hanley has something left to offer, but he is trending in the wrong direction. I know his BABIP is way below career norms, but I am starting to think that the stat is being way overused.

Now we just need to see what the Marlins do this off season with the savings. I just hope for the franchise's sake attendance picks up a bit.

Jul 25, 2012 14:54 PM
rating: 0
 
CalledStrike3

Note of interest:
Hanley's 1st game in Dodger Blue will be at 3B ... I think Donnie Baseball has taken a liking to Luis Cruz at SS.

Jul 25, 2012 15:45 PM
rating: 0
 
CalledStrike3

I forgot: Luis Cruz' TAV .258

Jul 25, 2012 15:48 PM
rating: 0
 
frampton
(870)

Well, cf. Ramirez at .267, and especially Uribe at .195. Does look like Don picked the two best out of the three . . .

Jul 25, 2012 20:22 PM
rating: 0
 
mtmannin

Showtime must be very excited about this for The Franchise. Can't wait to see the players' reaction

Jul 25, 2012 17:44 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Future Shock: Teams Th... (07/25)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (07/25)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (07/27)
Next Article >>
What You Need to Know:... (07/26)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article The Call-Up: Michael Feliz
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: June 1, 2015
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of May 29-31, 201...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Diamondbacks Get Salty
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: OMG Twinsies
Premium Article The Call-Up: Chi Chi Gonzalez
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: June 1, 2015

MORE FROM JULY 25, 2012
Transaction Analysis: Not All Who Wandy Are ...
The Lineup Card: 8 People Who Could Use a Ch...
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Two Good Starts and a Trade
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Relievers for 7/25/12
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Wednesday, July 25
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, July 25
What You Need to Know: Wednesday, July 25

MORE BY COLIN WYERS
2012-07-29 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Padres Get A Street De...
2012-07-27 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Dipoto Adds Greinke to...
2012-07-27 - Premium Article Painting the Black: The Guy With Baseball's ...
2012-07-25 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Hanley Goes to Hollywo...
2012-07-25 - Premium Article Future Shock: Teams That Could Have a Tough ...
2012-07-25 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Rays Boost Their Infie...
2012-07-25 - Transaction Analysis: Not All Who Wandy Are ...
More...

MORE TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
2012-07-28 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Liriano Heads to Rival...
2012-07-28 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Scutaro to San Fran
2012-07-27 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Dipoto Adds Greinke to...
2012-07-25 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Hanley Goes to Hollywo...
2012-07-25 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Hamels Extends Stay in...
2012-07-25 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Rays Boost Their Infie...
2012-07-25 - Transaction Analysis: Not All Who Wandy Are ...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2012-12-05 - The Lineup Card: 9 Winter Meetings Memories
2012-07-31 - BP Unfiltered: The Trade Deadline Transactio...
2012-07-30 - The Week in Quotes: July 23-29