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July 24, 2012
Transaction Analysis
Tigers Shore Up Problem Spots UPDATED
by R.J. Anderson and Kevin Goldstein
| American League | National League |
Acquired 2B-R Omar Infante, RHP Anibal Sanchez, and a 2013 compensation draft pick from the Miami Marlins for RHP Jacob Turner, C-L Rob Brantly, LHP Bryan Flinn, and a 2013 compensation draft pick. [7/23]
Give Dave Dombrowski credit; he just patched his team’s two biggest holes without yielding top offensive prospect Nick Castellanos.
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23 comments have been left for this article. 
Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 7/24/1...
Surprise Me!
I'd like to think, if this was the price for Jacob Turner, that the Cubs could've worked something out with Dempster and Barney/Baker for it.
Also, I'm surprised the Marlins focused on Turner instead of getting someone like Castellanos.
I'm kind of surprised too, just because Turner has pitched pretty poorly this year, and at least from the outside looking in, the Tigers haven't done a great job developing pitching prospects in recent years.
- Turner's AAA ERA was good, 3.16, but it took him a while to even pitch this year because of injury, and either KG or Keith Law said that the reports they were getting on him weren't that good. His K rate also fell from 7.6 to 6.1. It almost makes you worry if he's another...
- Rick Porcello. He's another guy who was a highly regarded Detroit prospect, but who's never had a full season ERA below 3.96. In another deal with Miami / Florida a couple years ago, the Tigers sent them Andrew Miller, who also never developed.
- Looking at the Tigers' SP from 2011 and 2012, minimum of 10 GS: That Verlander guy is pretty great, but he was drafted #2 overall in 2004, almost a decade ago. Scherzer came up with Arizona. Phil Coke was drafted and developed by the Yankees, and didn't stick in the rotation anyway. Brad Penny and Doug Fister were vets acquired in trades or via free agency. Drew Smyly has pitched OK in the rotation, but is probably replaced via this trade, and KG put his ceiling as a No. 4 starter before the year.
I'd actually disagree on the Tigers inability to develop pitching prospects. Sure, there have been some that have underperformed like Porcello, but there is something to say for developing league average and even fifth starter types like Armando Galarraga. You could even give them a little credit for Bonderman and for helping Edwin Jackson turn it around.
Have they been amazing at development? No. But they're better than a lot of teams out there.
Eh, I'd put Bonderman more in the "no" category. I remember him being a better pitcher than he was, since his lowest ERA was 4.08 in a full year, and his highest single season WAR was 2.9, in that same 2006 season. He also had a good postseason that year, but outside of that year, he was essentially... Rick Porcello.
But as I was saying, even developing an average major league pitcher has some value. The Tigers have been able to do so without having as forgiving a home environment as Oakland or San Diego. No, they haven't done a "great job" but I'd say they've been average with perhaps a sniff of above average.
Yeah, I'd agree the Tigers have developed slightly more than their share of non-prospect pitchers into half-way decent Major League pitchers. Look at Charlie Furbush, Drew Smyley, Brayan Villareal, and Duane Below to name a bunch currently having good to excellent years. Their record on top notch pitching prospects used to be horrendous, but Verlander alone turned that record around. No teams succeeds with them all and Verlander has surpassed his lofty expectations. Zumaya pitched brilliantly until his arm fell off. Yes, Andrew Miller was a bust - and so might be Jacob Turner, Casey Crosby, and Andy Oliver. Rick Porcello has been passable - but he is still young and may yet prove worthy of his hype.
Jeremy Bonderman was a first round Oakland draftee pitching for high A Modesto when he came to the Tigers' organization in a Jeff Weaver trade. The next year he was a regular in their rotation, but did have some struggles. Then, he was pretty solid his next two seasons (near league average - no injuries). In his fourth year, he produced that 4.08 ERA (still in the steroids era: 111 OPS+) with 214 innings that led to a league championship and a 3.10 post season ERA. That is a success by my reckoning. That he was still only 23 and his career went rapidly downhill afterwards was the disappointing thing about Bonderman.
Arrgh: Smyly Villarreal
Not as close as you might think.
Infante >> Barney/Baker
Sanchez >= Dempster
I do agree with that Sharky.
However, last I checked, the Tigers had some problems in their outfield. The Cubs have a few different outfield options that might interest the Tigers and help bridge that gap.
So, though I agree with your valuation, I'm just saying that, if the Tigers thought the Marlins package fit that the Cubs could've been a decent match too.
Second base was a far bigger need for the Tigers than another corner outfielder.
But they could've gotten it all from the Cubs. A starting pitcher, a 2B and a corner outfielder.
Everything I hear has Theo holding out for ransoms for anyone he's trading, so that may have had much to do with it.
Where exactly would Castellanos have played if traded to the Marlins? 3b and the corner OF spots are blocked at the Major league level atm. I guess they could have moved Morrison to 1b, but that would make both players offensive expectations higher than what they are likely to produce.