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July 17, 2012

Overthinking It

PECOTA's First-Half Hits and Misses

by Ben Lindbergh

Sometimes you’re not quite sure what your next column is going to be about, and then you get a pair of tweets like this:

@ben_lindbergh @JHamrahi forgive me if I missed this, but could someone put together an article on PECOTA vs first half numbers?
— Greg Layton (@grogg) July 16, 2012

@ben_lindbergh @JHamrahi you know the drill: biggest hits & misses, the Melky/Sanchez trade, etc. Would be a fun read.
— Greg Layton (@grogg) July 16, 2012

And then you know exactly what your next column is going to be about.

Half of the fun of having a projection system is bragging about what went right. The other half is figuring out what went wrong. This article does a bit of both.

These are the position players and pitchers whose 2012 True Averages and Fair Run Averages PECOTA has come closest to and furthest away from predicting (minimum 200 plate appearances or 80 innings pitched). In keeping with BP tradition, each hit or miss is inexplicably accompanied by a haiku.

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45 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

Behemoth

Warning you all now
All comments must be haikus
Or I will minus

Jul 17, 2012 08:07 AM

rating: 14

Behemoth

Well, forty haikus
That is really quite a lot
Much more fun than prose

Jul 17, 2012 08:09 AM

rating: 7

SGreenwell

This was awesome guys
The #want made me warm in pants
PECOTA's self-aware

Jul 17, 2012 08:13 AM

rating: 4

Behemoth

This was a good try
but too many syllables
In the final line

Jul 17, 2012 08:21 AM

rating: 5

Hendo

Accurate reads, though
Gio Gonzalez wonders
"Hey, who's the ace here?"

Jul 17, 2012 08:32 AM

rating: 7

dianagram

A 5-7-5
Rare play on the field or good
Winning percentage

Jul 17, 2012 08:47 AM

rating: 3

Michael

No one cares about
FRA predictions; ERA
would be more useful

Jul 17, 2012 08:53 AM

rating: 5

dianagram

There once was a man from Prospectus ...

(oh ... wait) ....

Jul 17, 2012 08:55 AM

rating: 19

WaldoInSC

Opining like homo erectus.
He was no ex-jock
spewing pablum and crock,
but instead some well-researched invectus.

Jul 18, 2012 19:38 PM

rating: 3

jfranco77

Yes, Cutch is the best
His teammates clearly aren't
J-Up as savior?

Jul 17, 2012 09:04 AM

rating: 5

CalledStrike3

Love for Dan Haren
Is what Pecota Proposed
Sadly a Runaway Groom

Jul 17, 2012 09:07 AM

rating: 7

CalledStrike3

Lust for Dan Haren
Is what PECOTA thirsted
Rejected again

Jul 17, 2012 14:29 PM

rating: 0

dianagram

Your skill with this verse
Lead to next year's annual
Haiku Prospectus

Jul 17, 2012 09:12 AM

rating: 7

dianagram

Someone has gone and
Banged all the comments to date
Not a haiku fan?

Jul 17, 2012 09:18 AM

rating: 6

Behemoth

Positive ratings
Have been given out to all
Who make the haikus

Jul 17, 2012 09:58 AM

rating: 6

Richard Bergstrom

Minus Diana?
Her grit is valued highly,
Queen of anagrams.

Jul 17, 2012 10:15 AM

rating: 2

dianagram

Richard is quite kind
Anagrams are fun to do
Haiku tough but cool

http://valueoverreplacementgrit.com/2012/07/11/the-vorgs-all-haiku-1st-half-review2nd-half-preview/

Jul 17, 2012 10:32 AM

rating: 3

Richard Bergstrom

Shameless plug for Di.
Whiffleball on tee, I did.
A home run she hit.

Jul 17, 2012 12:30 PM

rating: 2

ttt

Mike Trout is so good
At everything in baseball
Shows much #want not #slack

Jul 17, 2012 10:07 AM

rating: 1

Richard Bergstrom

Had Edwin myself.
Traded him to Stromboli.
For next gambling spree.

Jul 17, 2012 10:09 AM

rating: 0

gweedoh565

Mostly great, Ben! BUT:
"Slugging .376";
not five syllables

Jul 17, 2012 10:20 AM

rating: 3

Ben Lindbergh

BP staff

Yes, you are correct
I have just altered the line
Now it should be fine

Jul 17, 2012 10:46 AM

Sharky

Sage PECOTA,
Does it know everything?
"Sorry, HAL!" it says.

Jul 17, 2012 10:28 AM

rating: 2

Sharky

Sage PECOTA,
Does it know everything now?
"Sorry, HAL!" it says.

(FIXED)

Jul 17, 2012 10:29 AM

rating: 2

Richard Bergstrom

So, with PECOTA,
After Annual publish.
It cries "Do over!"

Jul 17, 2012 12:27 PM

rating: 2

El Descolador

Kudos, PECOTA
But answer this: did you call
Chris Davis's win?

Jul 17, 2012 11:00 AM

rating: 7

Behemoth

This one is the best
In my honest opinion
A prize is needed

Jul 17, 2012 13:50 PM

rating: 3

piraino

Enjoyed anecdotes,
would love further analysis.
An ANOVA?

Jul 17, 2012 13:45 PM

rating: 1

Behemoth

Ben will do more work
When you master the haiku
It's 5-7-5

Jul 17, 2012 13:47 PM

rating: 2

piraino

Let me try that again...

Enjoyed anecdotes,
would love more analysis.
An ANOVA?

Jul 17, 2012 13:46 PM

rating: 1

Behemoth

Sadly still not right
The last line is just too short
More #want is needed

Jul 17, 2012 13:49 PM

rating: 2

CalledStrike3

Oh Fernando :(
Pecota No Se Gusta
Senor Joe: "Bueno!"

Jul 17, 2012 14:35 PM

rating: 1

BarryR

Will Venable dreads
The long trip home to PETCO
Where hits go to die.

Jul 17, 2012 14:56 PM

rating: 0

Shaun P.

Freak off by a lot!
Might be, in second half, a
good bet to improve?

Jul 17, 2012 15:10 PM

rating: 1

Andrew Koo

BP staff

This is the greatest
So renew your BP subs
To enjoy this more

Jul 17, 2012 15:19 PM

BurrRutledge

Verlander's so good,
Predicted FRA ... what?!!!
Alas, a typo.

Jul 17, 2012 16:54 PM

rating: 1

BurrRutledge

Trout's noteworthy stats
Are deserving of haiku.
Not eighth syllable.

Jul 17, 2012 17:17 PM

rating: 1

BurrRutledge

On second thought, I
changed my mind on Mike Trout.
He bends haiku rules.

Jul 17, 2012 17:58 PM

rating: 1

Doug Thorburn

BP staff

The AngelFish is
Legen- (wait for it) -dary
Do Trout swim upstream?

Jul 17, 2012 23:55 PM

BurrRutledge

Poetic cadence
Enjoyable as always.
Thank you, Ben Lindbergh.

Jul 17, 2012 17:22 PM

rating: 1

Lou Doench

Zack Cozart's bat sucks.
But so does his lovely glove.
Like unto a vacuum.

Jul 17, 2012 17:36 PM

rating: 3

drawbb

Just wanted to say
The Melky and Lincecum
Haikus are golden

Jul 18, 2012 17:55 PM

rating: 1

WaldoInSC

Get what you paid for:
Horsehide erudition, yea!
BP and its fans.

Jul 18, 2012 19:31 PM

rating: 1

Richard Bergstrom

Haikus are quite fun.
Alas on BP's home page
They scroll off quickly.

Jul 19, 2012 19:40 PM

rating: 0

Behemoth

After all is done
We all have outwritten Ben
Forty is too few

Jul 20, 2012 06:15 AM

rating: 1

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<< Previous Article
Baseball ProGUESTus: B... (07/17)

<< Previous Column

Overthinking It: The R... (07/13)

Next Column >>

Overthinking It: Did B... (07/19)

Next Article >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (07/17)

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