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July 17, 2012

Value Picks

First, Third, and DH for 7/17/12

by Michael Street

One of the reasons players linger longer on the waiver wire at this point in the season can be traced to their season line. A weak start can sandbag a player’s stats, and less-than-careful owners can overlook improvements by only looking at the bottom line. That’s the best explanation for the lower ownership rates for some of my VPs this week, who are all performing well of late despite weak overall lines.

Departure
Since returning from his Triple-A demotion, Adam Lind (Yahoo! 27%, ESPN 29%, CBS 43%) has hit .327/.386/.615 (including Saturday’s four-hit performance), improving his OPS by 131 points. His overall triple-slash of .229/.307/.406 still looks weak, as do his seven homers, despite the fact that he’s hit four of those homers in the 57 plate appearances since his return. In his two weeks on the VP list, he’s seen growth rates of 3, 5, and 6 percent in Yahoo!, ESPN, and CBS, respectively. Those aren’t much, but he was pushing the VP envelope even when I added him, so it’s time to say farewell to Lind, who is looking like his old self again.

Incumbents
It took Jim Thome (Yahoo! 5%, ESPN 1%, CBS 9%) 35 plate appearances to pick up his first extra-base hit as an Oriole, a double on Saturday—not a good sign from a player whose power is his calling card. He’s only played three games at lefty-friendly Camden Yards, however, with his other appearances coming at Safeco and Angel Stadium, both pitchers parks. Give him some time to adjust and to pick up some more time hitting at home; even as the lefty half of a DH platoon, he’ll deliver on that power promise soon.

Jordan Pacheco (Yahoo! 3%, ESPN 1%, CBS 14%) is hitting over .300 for the season, but he’s still out there on most waiver wires, with those ownership levels continuing to sink. That’s undoubtedly because he hasn’t backed up that .306 average with either power or counting stats. His subpar 4.5 percent walk rate is counterbalanced by a very strong 88 percent contact rate, so you can expect his batting average to remain high while his OBP and power will stay low.

Finishing the first half strong with four extra-base hits, Luke Scott (Yahoo! 12%, ESPN 13%, CBS 27%) started the second half weakly, going hitless in six plate appearances over the weekend. Some of this comes from his recent lack of patience—he picked up only his second walk in his past 83 plate appearances on Saturday—but I expect that to normalize when his swing gets more settled.

As reflected in BP’s new PITCHf/x cards, Scott has not been hitting pitches outside of the zone very well. As with many lefty sluggers—like Travis Hafner, as demonstrated last week—Scott gets worked down and away by pitchers (especially lefties), and in 2010 (his best season), he was driving those pitches or putting them in the air. This led, unsurprisingly, to greater power. In 2011, when his OPS was 200 points lower than 2010, he hit those pitches into the ground, drastically reducing his power. This season falls somewhere in between those extremes in line drives and fly ball rate, restricting his slugging. If he can find that plate coverage again and produce when pitchers throw to the outside part of the zone, he can put up a season more like 2010 and less like 2011.