July 16, 2012

Painting the Black

The Rewritable Alex Rios

by R.J. Anderson

Every year, Baseball Prospectus releases a PECOTA projection for Alex Rios, and every year Rios makes us wonder why we bother by missing the mark on the forecast one way or the other. Rios’ volatility is as dizzying as it is bewildering. 

The trend dates back to 2008. Rios had made back-to-back All-Star Game appearances, and the Jays had no reason to believe those would be the last. Toronto wanted to secure Rios and his intriguing blend of power and speed, and so they nailed down a contract extension— the damage: seven years and more than $69 million. Rios played well enough through the season’s end to bring his three-year line to .296/.347/.489. Over the time, his seasonal averages included 19 home runs, 41 doubles, and 21 stolen bases.

Rios’ performances began vacillating in 2009. Although Rios still had a .265 True Average (TAv), the Jays placed him on revocable waivers; hoping against logic that a team would claim Rios and his potential liability of a contract. The White Sox answered the call and the Jays allowed them to imbibe the deal. Even now, almost three full years later, Rios has two more seasons and $25 million guaranteed remaining. A somber realization when his numbers since 2009 are examined (.253/.299/.401 and averages of 17 home runs, 27 doubles, and 23 stolen bases).

There is good news for the White Sox, however. Rios is in the midst of another weird season. This time, he is putting together a banner year. His .312 TAv would be the best of his career, and ranks sixth amongst right fielders. Meanwhile, Rios’ 39 extra-base hits are more than he had all of last season, in 200 fewer plate appearances.

Rios’ Scattershot Performances and Year-to-Year Delta, 2008-12

Season

TAv

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web. Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in. 6 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links code of conduct HonusCobb (46721) Thank you R.J. I've been waiting for some Rios analysis to come from a source other than the Sox local radio station. Jul 16, 2012 03:22 AM link rating: 0   rposborne (52299) Get to know South Side Sox. Jim Margalus does good work over there. Jul 16, 2012 08:19 AM link rating: 2   petergill (19324) Rios is the White Sox right fielder. He hasn't played center once this season. For a baseball site that is all about factual information you guys should know this. Jul 16, 2012 03:31 AM link rating: -2   Richard Bergstrom (36532) If you look at things like FIP and FRA and WARP instead of ERA and W-L record, Saberhagen's affection for odd numbered years doesn't exist. Jul 16, 2012 22:37 PM link rating: -1   CalledStrike3 (2881) From a Baseball hitting standpoint - Rios has had men on base in front of him and has been more than willing to let the ball travel deeper into the zone and then sting it to right field. He patiently waits for the upper/inner mistake that he has the quickness to turn on when he needs it. He is not trying to force the issue -- but is letting the game come to him this year. In HorseRacing one handicapping angle is a positive rider switch - lets call this one: Ozzie off Jul 17, 2012 14:47 PM link rating: 0   Richard Bergstrom (36532) Rios had problems long before he joined the White Sox so I don't think Ozzie's the reason. Jul 17, 2012 15:19 PM link rating: -1   Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content. << Previous Article Fantasy Beat: Scherzer... (07/16) << Previous Column Painting the Black: Ti... (07/06) Next Column >> Painting the Black: Th... (07/23) Next Article >> Bizball: Playing the M... (07/16) RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Scouting the Draft: Corner Outfielders to Kn... Daily Hit List: Tuesday, May 21 Punk Hits: Eyes on the Prize Baseball ProGUESTus: Dollar Sign on the Glis... Skewed Left: The Shift's PR Problem What You Need to Know: Corb Your Enthusiasm Overthinking It: The Pitches No Zone Can Con... MORE FROM JULY 16, 2012 Value Picks: Second, Short, and Catcher for ... Resident Fantasy Genius: To Platoon or Not t... Future Shock: The Nats Are Geniuses! Appel I... The Week In Quotes: July 9-July 15 What You Need to Know: Monday, July 16 Daily Hit List: Monday, July 16 Collateral Damage Daily: Monday, July 16 MORE BY R.J. ANDERSON 2012-07-20 - Transaction Analysis: Shaking Out the 10-Pla... 2012-07-19 - Transaction Analysis: Arizona's Bauer Goes O... 2012-07-17 - Transaction Analysis: The Orioles Lose Their... 2012-07-16 - Painting the Black: The Rewritable Alex Rios 2012-07-15 - BP Unfiltered: Andrew McCutchen and Grown-Ma... 2012-07-13 - Transaction Analysis: The Wages of Edwin 2012-07-09 - BP Unfiltered: Erick Aybar Takes an Extra Ba... More... MORE PAINTING THE BLACK 2012-08-06 - Painting the Black: John Jaso and the Change... 2012-07-27 - Painting the Black: The Guy With Baseball's ... 2012-07-23 - Painting the Black: The Surprise From Japan 2012-07-16 - Painting the Black: The Rewritable Alex Rios 2012-07-06 - Painting the Black: Tiptoeing Around Landmin... 2012-06-26 - Painting the Black: Why Does Everybody Go In... 2012-06-19 - Painting the Black: Evaluating Colletti More... Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Customer Service  |  Newsletter  |  Masthead  |  Glossary  |  Contact Us Copyright © 1996-2013 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.            Surprise Me!