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July 13, 2012

Overthinking It

The Rapid Aging of A-Rod

by Ben Lindbergh

When Major League Baseball’s All-Stars convened in Kansas City earlier this week, one notable name was nowhere to be found: Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been an All-Star 14 times, more than any other active player. He leads all active players in career value, according to traditional stats (HR, R, RBI) and advanced stats (WARP) alike. Only a handful of players in history have done as much to help their teams win. But career accomplishments mean only so much. To be considered one of the best players in baseball, you have to continue to play like one. And lately, A-Rod hasn’t looked a lot like an All-Star.

Rodriguez won his third AL MVP award in 2007. Since then, his performance has declined in five straight seasons. Most players can expect to see their numbers take a tumble after an MVP season, but A-Rod’s decline goes beyond routine regression. He’s not coming back down to earth. He’s falling off the face of it.

A-Rod’s Declining Performance and Playing Time, 2008-12

Year

TAv

2007

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18 comments have been left for this article.

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Lespaul1

Has A-Rod become much more of a "dead pull" type hitter? I remember in his elite years he would take pitches on the outer half of the plate and just easily stroke them into the right-center gap for stand up doubles. You rarely see that anymore - he only has TEN doubles this year, very low for a guy with his strength. I certainly wouldn't expect huge HR totals again, but I did expect him to adjust better than this.

Jul 12, 2012 13:44 PM

rating: 0

Shaun P.

Aren't doubles, and for that matter power overall, down across the league?

I haven't watched the Yanks closely enough to say that A-Rod has become more of a dead pull hitter. And his power numbers have declined much more than I expected. However, if everyone's doubles are down, that might not be a sign of A-Rod's declining power as much as a consequence of a lower scoring/tougher offensive environment across the board. In other words, it might say more about the league than about A-Rod.

Checking b-r.com's yearly league totals:
2009 AL: 4131 doubles, 87538 PA (0.0472 2B/PA)
2010 AL: 4016 doubles, 86744 PA (0.0463 2B/PA)
2011 AL: 4005 doubles, 86482 PA (0.0463 2B/PA)
2012 AL: 2043 doubles, 45588 PA (0.0448 2B/PA)

So, at the moment at least, it does seem that doubles are down league wide. It will be interesting to see what the end of year totals look like . . .

Jul 13, 2012 07:26 AM

rating: 1

Schere

why smooth A-Rod's TAV curve? It may be the best fit, but it's not a very good one. He's almost off the chart at ages 29 & 31 and falling far more than is "typical" since then.

Jul 12, 2012 13:47 PM

rating: 1

jj0501

I'd like to see a similar analysis of Ichiro.

Jul 12, 2012 16:42 PM

rating: 2

BillJohnson

That low rumble you readers in southern California just felt wasn't the San Andreas Fault twitching, it was Arte Moreno and Jerry Dipoto synchronously quaking in their boots when they read this.

Jul 12, 2012 17:35 PM

rating: 9

hyprvypr

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

It might be speculative to suggest ARod's decline is because of the lack of vitamins but it's a very very strong speculation that he cannot escape. It's exceedingly obvious he is smaller, physically, and the timing of his decline is actually quite accurate. Anyone who has taken strong supplements for weight lifting knows that after you stop taking them, there is a lengthy, slow, steady decline in your muscle-mass and muscle strength. With someone like ARod, he has access to everything else that is legal which would also slow the loss of strength from coming down from steriods/whatever he took. His decline is similar to so many others who were on and suddenly their skills rapidly declined(Brett Boone, Eric Gagne, John Rocker, etc.)

ARod's a very good player who became elite because he used then-legal PED's. End of story.

Jul 12, 2012 18:04 PM

rating: -14

rcrary

See, your first paragraph is a reasonable speculation, I think.

Your second is bullshit, in the technical sense of the term.

Jul 13, 2012 07:01 AM

rating: 10

Manprin

"When the Yankees re-signed Rodriguez to a 10-year, $27.5 million deal in December 2007..." I am not sure the numbers are correct there.

Jul 12, 2012 18:59 PM

rating: 3

Dave Pease

BP staff

(2)

fixed, thanks!

Jul 13, 2012 14:59 PM

colt45s

Doubles (or a lack of them) is a reliable indicator of a player's overall effectiveness at the plate. Dave Kingman hit lots of homers but very few doubles. Tony Gwynn, Pete Rose and Wade Boggs hit few homers, but lots of doubles. Check the declining doubles numbers for veterans at the end of their careers.

Jul 13, 2012 06:55 AM

rating: 1

tullythomas

Not sure how the "average" players can start out at age 18 with higher TAv's than the hall of fame set. In fact, by definition, the average ML player is in college or low A ball.

Jul 13, 2012 07:14 AM

rating: 1

thegeneral13

They don't. The curves were all shifted vertically to intersect at age 27 to show the different trajectories in the decline phase. That red curve would probably start at .240 or so if shown on a raw basis.

Jul 13, 2012 09:17 AM

rating: 1

Pat Folz

There's a wrinkle on Alex Rodriguez's health issues that I think merits further investigation. Before the 2009, ARod, Chase Utley, and Mike Lowell each had arthroscopic hip surgery on torn hip labrums. My understanding is this procedure was relatively new to baseball players at the time. Also, it's worth noting that Utley and Lowell had the same surgeon (Dr. Bryan Kelly).

All three of them had relatively strong 2009 seasons (after returning from rehab), and then saw precipitous declines in both their production and playing time thereafter. Lowell actually retired after putting up a .238 TAv in 2010, and Utley might not be long for the majors either (.256 TAv in a handful of at-bats since missing the first half). ARod is doing fairly well, by comparison.

Those three are kind of linked in my mind because they're on playoff teams and their injuries happened around the same time. Others who had similar surgery around that time are Alex Gordon, Carlos Delgado, and Brett Myers. Gordon actually improved thereafter, Delgado had a strong last ~100 ABs then retired, and Myers has been kind of stinky since with no discernible trend (granted, his issues are numerous).

So of the 6, the four guys who had the surgery at age 30 or older saw enormous declines in both durability and production and/or retired. It's a teeny tiny sample, but I think it's worth wondering if the effects of this particular surgery makes it less suitable for baseball players, for people past their physical primes (say over age 30), and/or if the particular rehab procedures to get the hip back in baseball shape were/are not sufficiently developed yet.

Maybe Corey Dawkins can shed some light?

Jul 13, 2012 11:10 AM

rating: 8

rcrary

That's interesting speculation. But regarding Utley, saying anything about his handful of at bats so far this season is surely a bad idea. And he's missed time the last couple of seasons because of his knees, the kind of condition that wouldn't seem to be related to his hip problem.

Jul 13, 2012 11:41 AM

rating: 0

Corey Dawkins

BP staff

You raised good points and hopefully I can clear some things up.

One of the biggest things is their age at the time of surgery. Rodriguez was 34 and Lowell was also 34 but Delgado was 37, Alex Gordon was 25, Utley was 30, and Myers was 29.

Lowell was already on the decline in the years prior to surgery, although his standout 2007 seems to be a little bit of an outlier. Delgado was on his way out of baseball anyways and like you said, Myers has many issues. Utley, of course has suffered multiple injuries to his knee and thumb since.

The problem isn't necessarily the surgery so to speak, it's a combination of damage present, how much needed to be done to correct it, age, and overall talent level.

So summing up your questions/points:

1. The surgery itself likely helps baseball players since the alternative (progressively worsening pain/arthritis) prolong their careers even at a lower production level. The decline in production likely would be faster if not treated surgically.
2. The more damage there is going in, the harder it will be for the player to return to his previous level of production. A torn labrum without significant arthritis or bony abnormalities is more likely to return to his previous levels if not improving.
3. Age certainly plays a role in that younger players tend to heal faster and stronger with all injuries.
4. The rehab likely does not factor in production other than getting the players back out on the field.
5. Previous talent levels play a role. HOF level players are more likely to be able to make adjustments to new mechanics while lower level players might not be able to adjust.

Hope this helps.

Jul 13, 2012 12:05 PM

Pat Folz

Great info, thanks for the response!

I have another question. We've heard about "cascade injuries" where altering one's motion to compensate for an injury in one area leads to another injury somewhere else on the body. Both ARod and Utley (as rcrary notes) have had knee problems as well, is there any reason to think that they might be related to the hip injuries/surgeries? (maybe reduced range of motion in the hip causes them to put more stress on the knee when running, or something?)

Jul 13, 2012 12:42 PM

rating: 0

Corey Dawkins

BP staff

That is something that occurs quite often, although less often at the professional levels. Hip injuries or tightness certainly has an effect on the knees and usually leads to patellofemoral issues more so than meniscus related issues. So, Utley's surgery may have had a greater role in his knee problems than Rodriguez's.

Theoretically though, the improved motion in the hip should have led to improvements in the knee. If either developed secondary muscular tightness, knee, ankle, back, and lower core injuries could develop.

Jul 13, 2012 12:54 PM

Corey Dawkins

BP staff

My stubby thumbs got in the way again. Point #1 should read:

1. The surgery itself likely helps baseball players prolong their careers, even at a lower production level, since the alternative (progressively worsening pain/arthritis) would lead to a faster decline in production.

Jul 13, 2012 12:22 PM

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