July 10, 2012

Value Picks

First, Third, and DH for 7/10/12

by Michael Street

If you want to make fantasy decisions, you could always consult your Magic 8-ball, but we’re a bit more scientific than that here at BP. Just as with this classic toy, however, there’s some amount of randomness in baseball, whether it’s the behavior of a ball in play or the chance that a fly ball will go over the fence.

Often, the best way to combat this randomness in your fantasy team is to be patient when a player’s performance isn’t supported by his secondary stats. Sometimes, the poor performance is for real, but more often, the player will regress to the mean and deliver statistics to compensate for his weak numbers to that point. Here at BP Fantasy, we’re here to tell you the difference—and though we don’t use an 8-ball, my advice this week is couched in the language of that familiar toy.

Departure
Outlook not so good
Todd Helton (Yahoo! 10%, ESPN 10%, CBS 31%) has seen his playing time gradually erode over the past several weeks, though the reasons weren’t always clear. Now they are: his right hip and leg have been bothering him, which also explains his weak power production this year. Tyler Colvin and Michael Cuddyer will continue to give him time off to rest, which could revive Helton once again; until that happens, he’s off the VP list.

Arrival
As I see it, yes
After missing more than a month due to right knee surgery, Travis Hafner (Yahoo! 6%, ESPN 1%, CBS 6%) returned to the Indians last week, earning him immediate VP reinstatement. He was hitting .242/.380/.439 when he left with six home runs and 24 RBI in 166 plate appearances, supported by excellent rates of 15.1 percent K% and 15.7 percent BB%. Only a .250 BABIP—much lower than his career .315 mark—kept his batting average below his 40^th percentile PECOTA.

In BP’s awesome new Pitch-F/X hitter cards, Hafner shows an interesting trend on strikes down and away in recent years. Pitchers have worked him—like other sluggers—in that quadrant for the past five years, including this season. Though he hasn’t hit that pitch well over that five-year span, he’s shown steady improvement from 2009 to this season, with his batting average rising steadily from .054 to .242 to .290 and .389 in 2012. Just as impressively, his ISO on pitches in that part of the zone rose from .000 in 2009 and 2010 to .033 in 2011 and .167 this year. Pronk is not only looking to hit the ball the other way, but he’s doing so with authority; his line drive rate has also risen in that quadrant.

His power is elevated this year thanks to a 16.3 HR/FB—his best mark since his heyday in 2006—despite a 35 percent fly ball rate that’s his lowest since his awful 2008. I would expect his power to normalize, but Pronk’s patience and strong contact rate will improve his batting average and keep his OBP consistent. Hitting in the middle of the order for the sixth-best-scoring offense in baseball should deliver counting numbers, bringing his owners value in most leagues.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers. Not a subscriber? Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

Cancel anytime. That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! That's a 33% savings over the monthly price! Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.