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July 6, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Bring Me the Head of Donavan Tate

The Backstory
Donavan Tate was selected with the third overall pick in the 2009 amateur draft. The two-sport athlete was given a then record bonus for a high school player, signing at the deadline for a cool $6.25M. A physical specimen standing 6’3’’ and weighing 200 lbs., Tate’s raw gifts were off-the-chart, with all five tools projecting to grade out as plus at maturity, and some scouts suggested three of those five tools could end up in the well-above-average range. He was entering professional ball with a pocket full of treasure and a toolshed that could stand alongside any player in the minors.

Before Tate played his first professional game in 2009, he suffered a hernia that required surgery, knocking him out for the remainder of the short-season. While recovering from the first freak injury, Tate suffered another freak injury from an off-the-field incident, which raised eyebrows across baseball and prompted the early unfurling of a red flag, as his focus and dedication were already being questioned.

The Padres made a substantial investment in the high-ceiling talent, hoping that 2010 would be the year they could unveil Tate to the world. Unfortunately, the grand reveal was more like the big tease, as Tate once again struggled with freak injuries and couldn’t log many games for the complex league team, much less ascend to a more advanced affiliate. His off-field behavior was still a frequent mention on Page 6 of the Scouting Daily, but his backers were still vocal about the makeup concerns being more gossip than gospel. When on the field, Tate looked very raw at the plate, with a loose swing that featured a great deal of miss and—despite walking a respectable 15 times in only 25 games—Tate’s immature pitch recognition skills were apparent to observers. He was still extremely young, but his first full season of professional baseball was a major disappointment, and the lofty expectations that existed only a few months prior seemed to be dissipating into the ether.

After falling down national prospect lists, not to mention falling down the depth chart in his own organization, Tate needed a rebound campaign, a season where he could show off the loud tools that

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19 comments have been left for this article.

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richardkr34

Aaron Hicks, bro. Aaron Hicks

Jul 06, 2012 01:21 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

He's on the list.

Jul 06, 2012 13:11 PM

darts1

I absolutely love this series! It's refreshing to get a realistic look at what went wrong with a player throughout his journey in the minors, and majors in some cases.

From your experience is it easier for someone like Tate to improve his #want tool, than it would be for someone like Smoak to fix his swing or approach?

Jul 06, 2012 08:45 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I think so. Everybody is different, but I'm of the belief that deficient #want can be corrected.

I look at it this way: I've been content in my current apartment for two years. I like the place, but I don't need all the space I'm paying for, and the rent continues to climb beyond my means. Instead of making an effort to find a more cost-effective and appropriate apartment, I've been complacent and full of #slack. It's not exactly bad makeup, but I haven't made the effort to better my situation. I was just okay with the way things were. I was just coasting.

Six weeks ago I get hit with a divorce, and out of necessity, I'm propelled into action. I have to find a more cost-effective apartment or I'm going to fall behind the financial curve. I was pushed into #want by an extreme event, and that's how my personality works. It takes something extreme for me to pay attention. Luckily for me, it wasn't too late to rectify.

The point is that everybody has a point where their #slack is forced into #want. Some require complete failure to remember to give a shit, and some are focused enough from the jump. As it applies to prospects, you just hope the light turns on before its too late.

Jul 06, 2012 13:21 PM

Mike V.

Jason, please do all of the prospects ever. Just spit out a new article every couple of hours. Thank you.

Jul 06, 2012 09:37 AM

rating: 10

Jason Parks

BP staff

I appreciate this. I'll profile as many prospects as people want to see. That's a bet.

Jul 06, 2012 13:24 PM

jfribley

Shades of Sean Burroughs?

Jul 06, 2012 09:44 AM

rating: 0

Cromulent

I was under the impression that Burroughs was a pure hitter, not an athlete. Even had some questions about power ceiling. Almost the opposite profile from Tate.

Jul 06, 2012 11:27 AM

rating: 2

jfribley

Oh definitely, agree there--I meant more in terms of makeup/organization (although that was a totally different Padres organization, and fingers crossed Tate doesn't end up in the dark place Burroughs did)

Jul 06, 2012 13:35 PM

rating: 0

pobothecat

Description of Donovan Tate reminded me of Michael Jordan, the baseball player.

Jul 06, 2012 10:50 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Tate has a realistic chance to become a major league contributor. He might not become the star he could/should have been, but he has a lot more baseball skills than Jordan ever did. Because of the gap in his baseball development, Jordan never had a chance to play at the highest level. He was never going to make enough contact.

Jul 06, 2012 13:23 PM

Pat Folz

The thing about Tate, from the perspective of the peanut gallery, is that he just sounded like a sure-fire bust from the moment we heard of him. So he's tall and athletic but has no real baseball ability? It sounded like one of those guys in the NBA draft every year who's 6'10" with a 38" vertical and a 9" wingspan, who can't shoot or handle or rebound or pass or defend. He was (is?) basically the Marcus Haislip of baseball, and I think that's why a lot of people were pretty quick to write him off.

So his performance in 2011 was really encouraging, granting the small sample. His K/BB was close to 1 and a K% of < 20% ain't too bad at all. Unfortunately for him and the Padres, his K% spiked (or perhaps, rebounded) this year against A-ball pitching. It sure sounds like that comes from the basic weakness, his inability to make consistent contact, and that's a scary mountain to have to climb. Still, per your piece on tools goofs with poor early performance, that 2011 season gives at least some hope that he might figure it out. Bill Hall, I recall, sandwiched a decent year between two crappy ones before taking off.

Still, I don't really understand why you'd take this sort of player #3 overall.

Jul 06, 2012 12:18 PM

rating: 1

Kyle Matte

The reason you take Tate 3rd overall is the same reason the Royals took Bubba Starling 5th overall and the Twins took Byron Buxton 2nd overall. If your coach staffs can develop him, you have an absolute monster. The risk is obviously high and things don't always work out, but when you have a chance to insert a Justin Upton type player into your organization, you do it.

Jul 09, 2012 06:20 AM

rating: 1

serviceoutrage

I love the choice to use the phrase "passing drug tests."

Jul 06, 2012 13:38 PM

rating: 1

AaronSF

Whoa, when did #want get the official mouse-over definition treatment?!? Very cool, and much deserved.

Jul 06, 2012 17:42 PM

rating: 2

Huebsutd

I have been following Ft Wayne outfielder, Kyle Gaedele since high school and see he's really struggling his 1st yr in professional ball after 3 stellar seasons at Valparaiso. Have you seen him, or heard about what's going on with him? Love the Up and In podcast!

Jul 06, 2012 18:22 PM

rating: 0

achase

Love this series. In re nominees, I'll put forward Reid Brignac -- what a weird trajectory his career has had!

Jul 08, 2012 14:28 PM

rating: 1

jfranco77

For some reason I always think Cameron Maybin should be a fair comp (same team, same position, both athletic), but the skills are different, and Maybin actually hit in the minors.

Jul 11, 2012 04:54 AM

rating: 0

jnossal

Just wondering, do major league organizations give their potential draft picks an intelligence test?

Jul 22, 2012 00:21 AM

rating: 0

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