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July 2, 2012

Value Picks

Second, Short, and Catcher for 7/2/12

by Josh Shepardson

Departures
As promised last week, Zack Cozart (Yahoo! 26%, ESPN 27%, CBS 64%) is making his departure from Value Picks this week.  His performance has been lacking over the last two weeks and his strikeout rate is up a tick, but his overall skill set remains unchanged.  Cozart still packs some punch, and he has a prime lineup slot hitting atop the Reds order.  As long as his strikeout rate doesn't spiral out of control—which there are no indications it is going to—Cozart will remain a useful middle infielder in large mixed leagues and a good option in NL-only leagues all year.

At this point, there is little reason to believe Brian Roberts (Yahoo! 8%, ESPN 8%, CBS 34%) will be a useful fantasy player this year. Over the past week he has gone a putrid 2-for-24 and has provided no thump on the season, tallying zero extra base hits in 66 plate appearances.  His walk rate is down from his best years, and he's not running often in the rare instances he is on base.

The strikeouts are beginning to pile up for Everth Cabrera (Yahoo! 9%, ESPN, 9%, CBS 20%), and an increase in strikeouts has corresponded with a decrease in batting average and on-base percentage.  In order for Cabrera to have value, he needs to steal bases, and he can't do that from the dugout.  He remains ownable in NL-only leagues and is worthy of a bench spot in 14-team or larger mixed leagues using a middle infield position, but beyond that, he should be sent to the waiver wire. 

Hanging on by a Thread
So much for a resurgence from Geovany Soto (Yahoo! 25%, ESPN 14.3%, CBS 28%).  His line drive rate suggests that his low average and .111 BABIP are due for a correction in his favor, but his 50 percent ground ball rate is doing him no favors.  Steve Clevenger isn't doing much to lay claim to primary catching duties, but if Soto doesn't start recording base hits, it won't matter.  Catcher is an awful fantasy position, though, and there is upside here.  Give him a bit more leash. 

Last Call
Owners are taking notice of Erick Aybar's (Yahoo! 36%, ESPN 38%, CBS 48%) play in June, and his ownership has risen a few percentage points across all three fantasy baseball providers.  In 100 June plate appearances prior to Saturday's game, he was hitting .315/.354/.457 with eight doubles, one triple, and one home run.  His high contact rate should help him continue to hit for a high average, though not this high.  Aybar has just one steal this month and is on pace to fall short of 20 stolen bases.  That said, he stole 30 bases last year, and did so efficiently.  He has been efficient again this year, with five stolen bases in six chances.  If manager Mike Scioscia allows him to run more often, he has the ability to be a fantasy asset in stolen bases.  As it stands, he provides enough to fantasy teams to be owned in large mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

Sticking Around
The Colorado Rockies continue to get some punch from Wilin Rosario (Yahoo! 23%, ESPN 12%, CBS 52%).  Predictably, he wasn't able to duplicate last week's fireworks, but he did hit another home run this week.  Ramon Hernandez still hasn't resumed baseball activities, so continue to deploy Rosario in all two-catcher leagues, and don't hesitate to plug him into lineups in single-catcher leagues either.