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June 28, 2012

Value Picks

Starting Pitchers for 6/28/12

by Paul Sporer

I’m sorry if you cut someone of value to get the jump on Felipe Paulino last week.  The news of his setback came out after I recommended him.  He finally starts putting together a breakout season, and now he can’t stay on the field.  I hope he doesn’t suffer Brandon McCarthy syndrome, another favorite of mine who has had health issues keeping him from great seasons.

Last Chance
After another gem on Wednesday afternoon in Seattle, Jarrod Parker (Yahoo! 43%, ESPN 47%, CBS 72%) is likely to see another surge in pickups. His seven innings of one-run ball now gives him a stretch of seven starts dating back to May 23 during which he has a 1.85 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, and 2.1 K/BB in 46 innings.  That includes a six-run battering in Arizona too.  In fact, that outing and another six-run battering in San Francisco are the only two starts this year in which he has allowed more than two runs. 

He isn’t just getting fat on tomato cans either.  This seven-start stretch includes a trip to Coors Field during which he threw seven shutout innings and a game against the Texas Rangers in which he spun eight shutout (and seven no-hit) innings.  No pitcher is getting out of Coors alive these days, and the Rangers fielded their A-team, making these two extremely impressive feats on the rookie’s ledger.  Parker has earned some trust, even in 10-team mixed leagues where talent is more plentiful on the waiver wire. 

Departures
Meanwhile, the stock of Jeff Samardzija (Yahoo! 44%, ESPN 35%, CBS 80%) took another severe hit on Wednesday afternoon, and he would be the perfect candidate to cut if you were looking to pick up Parker.  After an incredible run from his last start in April through his first one this month (2.26 ERA in 52 innings), Samardzija has been brutal in his last four with a 1.97 WHIP (!) in 18 1/3 innings to go with his 12.30 ERA.  He was running a 9.2 K/9 prior to the stretch, but that has dipped to 6.9 during the fade; in yesterday’s demolition at the hands of the Mets, he managed just one strikeout.  The Mets tattooed him for nine runs on six hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings of work. 

Tread Cautiously
I simply cannot preach enough caution with Francisco Liriano (Yahoo! 36%, ESPN 17%, CBS 74%).  In fact, this is the only VP recommendation this year where I won’t actually put my money where my mouth is. I simply don’t have any particular interest in the devastating rollercoaster ride that is Liriano.  I don’t go to Six Flags either.  Rollercoasters aren’t my thing.  Nevertheless, he is in a six-start stretch during which he has posted a 2.41 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, and 2.9 K/BB in 37 1/3 innings with five quality starts. 

I wouldn’t be doing my job very well if I didn’t at least alert you to his stretch of success and then allow you to make your decision on him.  I will point out that his foes during the run have been Oakland (before they became the ’27 Yankees), Kansas City, both Chicagos, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh.  The White Sox and Brewers are the best of that bunch, and neither are much better than league average.