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June 26, 2012

Value Picks

First, Third, and DH for 6/26/12

by Michael Street

I griped last week about tough times on the waiver wire, but a few recent roster moves have led to an increase in available talent. Top prospect Anthony Rizzo should be promoted any day now, while the fate of a few other players—highlighted in Playing Pepper—hangs in the balance. The coming weeks should bring some more clarity to those situations, while I remain patient with other members of the current VP list.

Departures
Recommending James Loney (Yahoo! 7%, ESPN 6%, CBS 25%) each week has felt like recommending vanilla at Ben and Jerry’s—it’s better than vanillas made by other companies, but it can’t really compare to more exciting flavors like Karamel Sutra or Chubby Hubby. Loney has only hit .222/.279/.254 over the past four weeks and .255/.309/.294 in June. Both are due to low BABIPs (.241 and .277, respectively), and he’s valuable in NL-only leagues for his playing time, although his ownership levels indicate he’s unlikely to be available in those leagues. With tastier, higher-ceiling options to sample in Playing Pepper, I’m cutting Loney loose.

An 11-game hit streak that includes four home runs has a way of opening owners’ eyes, and that’s certainly happened with Brandon Belt (Yahoo! 26%, ESPN 31%, CBS 55%). Given confidence by the demotion of Brett Pill, Belt has also gotten more playing time from Aubrey Huff hitting the disabled list, joining the infamous list of celebration-related injuries. This should be the time for Belt to shine, and he’s raised his batting average 42 points and his slugging 116 points since June 10. Keeper owners in particular should be happy they stuck with Belt; everyone else can also enjoy the ride.

I gave David Cooper (Yahoo! 1%, ESPN 0%, CBS 5%) a little time to turn things around, but his weak hitting at the plate has led to a demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas. He’s someone to watch for the future, but the Jays have some corner infield roster decisions to make before that happens.

Arrivals
Bryan LaHair started playing in right field last week, ramping up the rumor mill about the long-expected promotion of Anthony Rizzo (Yahoo! 15%, ESPN 9%, CBS 52%). By the time you read this, Rizzo could be in the majors and in the starting lineup, giving Cubbies fans yet another reason to raise their hopes. Since the team is wallowing in the basement of the NL Central, now is the time to try out prospects—or, as in Rizzo’s case, to give them another shot to prove themselves.

Rizzo has been a Value Pick before, after the Padres called him up last season, but he underwhelmed, hitting .141/.281/.242 in 153 plate appearances. That separation between his batting average and OBP shows his 13.7 percent BB%, but his strikeout rate crested at thirty percent. He mashed curveballs but struggled against everything else—in particular, fastballs—and his 2011 performance can’t be blamed on the usual suspects of Petco or same-side pitching: