I stare at Dexter Fowler in search of inspiration. Not at the actual man, of course—that would be awkward and inappropriate—but at his statistical record. What do the numbers say about him? Again, not the actual man, but the player. More specifically, the hitter.
The lanky 26-year-old center fielder is playing his fourth more-or-less full big-league season and, despite a recent slump, enjoying unprecedented success at the plate. After being sent down to Triple-A Colorado Springs for brief “refresher courses” in each of the previous two seasons, Fowler seems to have figured out how to avoid repeat visits.
Fowler was hitting .238/.340/.348 at the time of his last demotion on June 4, 2011. Since returning six weeks later, he has hit .282/.378/.506 in 542 plate appearances through June 24, 2012. Coors Field or not, this is nice production out of a center fielder who is under club control and who should be entering his physical prime.
His batting average seldom veers far from .260 (it was .263 in 2012 when I started this article), he has decent on-base skills, and now he has added hitting the ball with authority to his repertoire. The change in power is dramatic, especially given Fowler's consistency in other areas:
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I don't know why the Rockies love doing these motivational demotions to AAA and I get infuriated when Dexter Fowler hits 8th or 9th.
I also got into a discussion with someone at Yahoo Sports who said Fowler wasn't much a leadoff hitter because he doesn't steal any bases. I then pointed out that around half of his hits this year are going for extra bases, limiting the opportunity for stolen bases. Perhaps the additional power this year is affecting his BRR numbers too?
To add onto point # 3. Is it possible he also made some adjustments to his approach (Joey bats' approach change comes to mind)? Is Fowler pulling the ball more often? Is he more successful handling the fastball inside?
Hasn't the entire Rockies' defense been horrific this year? I have no clue at all, but is there something environmental or something that is leading to terrible defense compared to last year?
And the Rockies pitching staff is noticeably worse. Besides allowing more hits (which may be a factor of the bad defense), they're also allowing more home runs per innings pitched. Fewer double plays are also being turned too.
Basically, the Rockies run prevention hasn't looked this bad since 2005/2006.
Like we see every spring about tons of players, there were best shape of his life stories about Fowler before this season. While those stories seem to rarely alter future performance, I did take the Fowler story a little more seriously b/c he was working out with Tulowitzki (and Giambi). Tulo doesn't mess around in his training. Dexter is a lanky guy, so maybe that effort fueled his extra pop he's showing so far.
Great article. Fowler is an enigma. I could write 5 pages of puzzling observations off the top of my head from watching him play almost every game for his career. A few quick observations:
Fowler is a natural right-handed hitter and only started hitting left handed I believe when he turned pro. His power from the left side just started to come out in the second half last year. It might have just taken it that long to develop.
Fowler is noticeably bigger this year. He is listed at 6'4 190. Having stood very close to him--he is closer to 6'6 than 6'4. IF he weighs 190 now then he must have weighed around 170 last year and 160 to 165 in his first years. Working out with Tulo and Giambi in the offseason changed his body. The ball started jumping off his bat with a different sound in the second half of last season and that has taken another dramatic jump this year--he is hitting some bombs. I only see two problems going forward: 1. He is now sometimes getting into an uppercut, swing for the fence mode which leads to a lot of Ks. 2. Jim Tracy is his manager and Tracy just loves to sit hot hitters on the bench. (ask Tyler Colvin who hit 4 HRs in 5 games and then was benched)
While Fowler in "no-brainer" situations is an amazing and great baserunner. By "no-brainer" I mean when he hits a ball in the gap and is going for a triple, when he is on first and the hitter hits one in the gap, andor when he is on second and there is a single and Fowler is just relying on the 3B coach to wave him home. However, Fowler has horrible overall baseball instincts. When the play is front of him and he has to make a decision--he makes a LOT of wrong decisions--running into outs, tagging when he should be going halfway and vice versa, and not being able to read at all when bloops are going to be caught or not caught. Confusing to me because Fowler is Ivy League school smart off the field.
For whatever reason and this puzzles me immensley: UZR and other fielding ratings for OFs that play in Coors Field are worthless. They just don't add up for whatever reason. Fowler gets very good breaks on balls (especially in the gaps on deep fly balls) and covers more ground than the majority of CFs I see come to Coors Field. Same goes for Cargo in LF. Last year Cargo had bad ratings (maybe because the Rockies faced 148 Right handed starters last year) and he was superb last year defensively, covered more ground than any LF I have ever seen play LF (including visiting teams) in the 15+ years I have seen games there, and was screwed out of a Gold Glove. This year Cargo has had a subpar year with a lackadaisical approach in the field--I guess he thinks he is a star now that doesn't have to play hard.
And one off the field comment: I have a female friend who had Dexter show up for a Boys and Girls Club activity she ran as a guest and she said Dexter was a totally amazing human being who was fantastic with the kids she was in charge with. She still hasn't stopped talking about how he interacted with kids--especially the most shy and awkward kids--and this was 2 years ago.
Bottom line: If Jim "Einstein" Tracy would just leave Fowler alone and pencil his name in the leadoff spot in CF for 155 games a year---Fowler would be a top 5 CF in baseball.
Very nice analysis. I remember commentary during the All-Star game at Coors that the outfield was so huge that more hits fall in. Perhaps that does affect UZR. I do know, from what I've seen of Fowler's defensive play, he seems to be at least average if not above average and seems to get good jumps.
And yeah, I definitely agree with "the bottom line".
Richard: I think I have gone to my last game this year. 20 years of going to a lot of games--probably averaged in the teens for that length of time and zero, zippo, nadda, absolutely zero Western Division crowns. After a while--I feel like a fool wasting my money on a team with a cheap owner, a horrible gm, the worst manager in baseball, a pathetic player development system................ Seriously, I have been watching the Diamondbacks on TV lately and just love the way they play the game. Growing up in Michigan, I was a huge Kirk Gibson fan--including seeing about a half dozen of his college football games at Michigan State where he was a complete stud. I'm thinking about becoming a Diamondbacks fan until Monfort sells the team and O'Dowd and Tracy are gone. I'm just sick of the Rockies management.
Western Front: Angels ... (06/19)
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I don't know why the Rockies love doing these motivational demotions to AAA and I get infuriated when Dexter Fowler hits 8th or 9th.
I also got into a discussion with someone at Yahoo Sports who said Fowler wasn't much a leadoff hitter because he doesn't steal any bases. I then pointed out that around half of his hits this year are going for extra bases, limiting the opportunity for stolen bases. Perhaps the additional power this year is affecting his BRR numbers too?
I was thinking the same thing.