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June 25, 2012

Value Picks

Second, Short, and Catcher for 6/25/12

by Josh Shepardson

Departures
The Pirates backstop, Rod Barajas (Yahoo! 4%, ESPN 0%, CBS 17%), has felt regression, and it has been swift and unkind.  At this point in the year, though, his slash is similar to his career line.  What you see is what you get.

Last week, I was hopeful Devin Mesoraco (Yahoo! 3%, ESPN 0%, CBS 23%) was on his way to shaking full blown shared catcher duties with Ryan Hanigan.  This week, I'm less confident.  In the Reds’ last seven games, Mesoraco has started three times, and Hanigan has started four.  In his three games started, Mesoraco recorded two hits in nine at-bats with one hit being a double and the other a single.  In Hanigan's four starts, he was better, recording four hits in 14 at-bats, adding two walks for good measure.  Mesoraco remains a desirable option to own in long-term keeper leagues, but each week that passes in which he fails to impress he looks less desirable to own in redraft leagues.  His talent and upside make him watch-list worthy, but beyond that, he shouldn't be owned in most leagues. 

My decision to include someone else as this week's AL-only VP has forced Cliff Pennington (Yahoo! 4%, ESPN 2%, CBS 14%) to the departures section.  His speed still makes him an ownable option in AL-only leagues, but a 2-for-16 week at the dish gets him the boot in most other leagues. 

Owned in more than half of ESPN leagues, we bid adieu to Yunel Escobar (Yahoo! 44%, ESPN 51%, CBS 61%) for the right reason.  He didn't light the world on fire last week, but he continues to hit line drives at a high rate while making contact often.  Don't let Escobar's season line fool you; he's better than this.

Hanging on by a Thread
He's still healthy and upright, but positives for Brian Roberts (Yahoo! 12%, ESPN 25%, CBS 43%) just about end there.  In 48 plate appearances, Roberts has 11 hits, none going for extra bases.  He has also attempted just only one stolen base, an unsuccessful attempt at that.  The sample size is small, and he's coming off a long layoff, but the negatives outweigh the positives currently.  Peak-years Roberts isn't walking through the door, and if this version of him doesn't start providing reason for ownership soon, it will be time to cut bait. 

Sticking Around
It was a scorching week for Wilin Rosario (Yahoo! 20%, ESPN 9%, CBS 49%), including two home runs, two multi-hit games, and only two strikeouts.  The Rockies’ Opening Day starting catcher Ramon Hernandez remains on the disabled list, and according to Jim Tracy and the team's official website, he doesn't seem to be close to participating in significant baseball activity.  The Rockies are 16 games below .500 and have little incentive to remove Rosario from the starting role even when Hernandez returns.  Rosario is fourth amongst eligible catchers in ESPN leagues in home runs and has earned the distinction of being ownable in one-catcher leagues.  His wretched walk-to-strikeout rate, his six percent above league average chase rate, and his 10.6 percent below league average contact rate are strong indicators that his current batting average is about as good as owners can expect, and there is some danger for a significant drop.  That said, his power is real, and playing his home games at Coors Field should accentuate his offensive calling card.