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June 19, 2012

Value Picks

First, Third, and DH for 6/18/12

by Michael Street

June is a tough month for waiver-wire pickups; all the early bargains are long gone, starting positions have largely solidified, and most of this season’s call-ups haven’t yet begun to arrive. That means even more patience is required from fantasy players, a virtue that paid off for owners of one VP this week and a lesson to those who are ready to drop a talented hitter after a prolonged cold spell. Patience can make for some nail-biting weeks and short-term statistical swoons, but it’s always good to remember the baseball cliché that the season is a marathon, not a sprint.

Departures
I’d said when adding Brett Wallace (Yahoo! 1%, ESPN 2%, CBS 7%) to the VP list that he might not stay long, and sure enough, he was returned to Triple-A after Carlos Lee returned from the DL. Wallace’s .333/.429/.583 line in 42 plate appearances (despite a 33.3 K%) should assure him of the first-base gig if Lee is traded (if not sooner), making him someone to keep watching in NL-only leagues.

While several players are on the cusp of VP obsolescence, Lonnie Chisenhall (Yahoo! 3%, ESPN 5%, CBS 18%) gets the preemptive axe. The return of Jack Hannahan (Yahoo! 3%, ESPN 1%, CBS 8%) from the disabled list means a short-term time share between the two, and Chisenhall’s likely to get another bus ticket back to Columbus soon. Still, Hannahan could still reinjure himself, his .314 BABIP might catch up to him, or Chisenhall could stick around to split time between at third and DH. Hoping for so many things to break Chisenhall’s way isn’t a good use of a roster spot, though, even in such difficult times, so Chisenhall owners in all but AL-only leagues should prepare to cut bait.

Arrivals
In his return to the VP list, Yonder Alonso (Yahoo! 19%, ESPN 12%, CBS 44%) enters amid similar circumstances to his last appearance: mashing a rare homer amid a hit streak. In May, that longball came in the midst of a nine-game run. This time it’s only a five-game streak, but his secondary stats remain solid. Since his first VP stint, his walk rate has remained steady at 9.5 percent while his strikeouts have ticked up from 15.8 K% to 17.9 K%. Both point to a better batting average than his current .256, as does his .312 BABIP. The latter might seem good enough, but Alonso maintained a .325 BABIP in the minors, so this could actually be low for him. And this month, when he’s hit .182/.224/.255, his  BABIP has been down at .209.

As always, his natural tendencies (.173 minor-league ISO) and PETCO Park will mute his power, although he hit last week’s jack in Safeco, a similarly power-suppressing ballpark. Despite his strong walk rate, he’s been more aggressive at the plate than the average hitter, swinging at more pitches inside and outside the zone while making better contact (91.9 percent) on strikes and worse contact (57.1 percent) on balls. Only the latter trend is a concern, and it could lead to diminished OBP returns down the stretch. For playing time and talent, though, it’s hard to find a better player available at this time of the year than Alonso, making him worthy of a roster spot before he disappears from your waiver wire like he did last time.

Incumbents
James Loney (Yahoo! 8%, ESPN 6%, CBS 26%) sat against two of the three lefties that the Dodgers faced this week, but he picked up two hits against the third, C.J. Wilson. Loney has also made excellent contact this month, whiffing just twice in 46 plate appearances, helping him to a .310/.356/.357 June line that neatly encapsulates his two-category fantasy appeal.