This week’s question comes comes from an anonymous reader, who asks:
Opening Day’s right around the corner, and I’m fascinated in how prestigious it is to be the Opening Day pitcher. The Opening Day starter is supposed to be your ace. My question is: How often to teams get it right and their first starter is their best starter of the year?
First, I want to apologize for the long absence of AFTH from the web site. In addition to the usual off-season book-writing duties, I spent the winter relocating to the east coast from California as well as welcoming a new baby to the family. But I’m getting settled now, and hope to be writing AFTH and doing other research again in between feedings and diaper changes.
Onto the question. If we assume that the “best” pitcher is the one with the highest VORP, we can look at the Opening Day starter’s eventual full-season VORP to see if it led the team.
I’ve run the numbers for the 2002 season, and some of the results are surprising. First of all, only seven teams had their Opening Day starter turn in the best season on the team. And two of them did it despite being traded off the team during the season!
Team Opening Day Pitcher Starter w/highest VORP VORP ---------------------------------------------------------------- ANA Jarrod Washburn Jarrod Washburn 63.8 ARI Randy Johnson Randy Johnson 86.9 CHA Mark Buehrle Mark Buehrle 56.7 CLE Bartolo Colon Bartolo Colon (CLE stats only) 38.8 DET Jeff Weaver Jeff Weaver (DET stats only) 26.4 MIL Ben Sheets Ben Sheets 28.9 SLN Matt Morris Matt Morris 42.0
It’s odd not to see Pedro Martinez on that list, but as amazing as his season was, Derek Lowe was slightly better. Still, that hardly means Boston goofed by having Pedro start on Opening Day. Similarly, the next group of teams had a pitcher with a better season than their Opening Day starter, but the O.D. starter still turned in a respectable or near-the-top performance.
Opening Day VORP Gap Team Pitcher Starter w/highest VORP (Best vs O.D.) ------------------------------------------------------------- ATL Tom Glavine Greg Maddux 56.1 to 53.9 BOS Pedro Martinez Derek Lowe 79.0 to 68.7 CHN Jon Lieber Matt Clement 39.9 to 21.2 HOU Wade Miller Roy Oswalt 61.6 to 41.4 MIN Brad Radke Rick Reed 34.0 to 13.5 MON Javier Vazquez Tomo Ohka 40.5 to 37.4 NYA Roger Clemens Mike Mussina 37.7 to 23.4 NYN Al Leiter Steve Trachsel 21.9 to 20.6 OAK Mark Mulder Barry Zito 65.0 to 41.1 SEA Freddie Garcia Jamie Moyer 55.7 to 28.9
There are plenty of reasons why the Opening Day starter might not lead the team in performance. He may have an off season, or a younger pitcher may have a breakthough year. The team management may has misassessed who the best arms were. Injuries can always take their toll. Or, perhaps, the best starter wasn’t ready to go on Opening Day, forcing the team to its next best alternative. Whatever the reason, the next group of teams saw large gaps between the first pitcher of the year, and their best pitcher of the year.
Opening Day VORP Gap Team Pitcher Starter w/highest VORP (Best vs O.D.) ------------------------------------------------------------- CIN Joey Hamilton Elmer Dessens 38.4 to -2.2 COL Mike Hampton Jason Jennings 30.6 to -0.2 FLO Ryan Dempster A.J. Burnett 35.9 to 3.7 KCA Jeff Suppan Paul Byrd 44.6 to 9.9 PIT Ron Villone Kip Wells 31.8 to -4.4 SDN Kevin Jarvis Brian Lawrence 19.9 to 0.1 SFN Livan Hernandez Kirk Rueter 33.2 to 7.8 TBA Tanyon Sturtze Joe Kennedy 13.8 to 4.6 TEX Chan Ho Park Kenny Rogers 35.4 to -0.8
I’ve saved the teams with the largest gaps between the Opening Day starter and the team’s best pitcher for last. In three of the four cases, time missed to injuries played a significant part, and Scott Erickson was diagnosed with a torn labrum following the season. But all these teams had a pitcher worth 50 or more runs above their Opening Day starter.
Opening Day VORP Gap Team Pitcher Starter w/highest VORP (Best vs O.D.) ------------------------------------------------------------- BAL Scott Erickson Rodrigo Lopez 39.5 to -11.6 LAN Kevin Brown Odalis Perez 51.4 to -1.1 PHI Robert Person Randy Wolf 48.1 to -7.2 TOR Chris Carpenter Roy Halladay 66.1 to 4.4
The moral of the story, if there is one, is that being an Opening Day starter may be an honor for past performance, but it hardly ensures a good season ahead. But you probably knew that already.
One side note: Rick Reed is shown as the Twins’ VORP leader, but it’s more accurate to say that he was the starting pitcher with the highest VORP. Reliever J.C. Romero actually led the team with 35.8 VORP (to Reed’s 34.0); he was the only reliever to lead a staff in VORP last year.
Thanks for writing in, and keep sending your “Aim For The Head” questions to kwoolner@baseballprospectus.com.
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