CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Jason ... (06/11)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock: 2012 Dra... (06/08)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Future Shock: Picking ... (06/14)
Next Article >>
What You Need to Know:... (06/12)

June 11, 2012

Future Shock

Monday Morning Ten Pack

by Kevin Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Arismendy Alcantara, SS, Cubs (High-A Daytona)
While the focus on the Cubs system is firmly on the Triple-A team and the prospects that will arrive in Wrigley this year, Alcantara has turned into a pop-up guy in the system. With five hits over the weekend, the 20-year-old Dominican is now batting .291/.315/.417 in 60 games this season. There are some holes in his game, in particular an overly-aggressive plate approach and sloppy throwing mechanics that have contributed to 22 errors, but he's a line drive hitter with a quick bat, plus speed, and the tools to remain at short. Scouts see Alcantara as a good utility player, at the very least, and many give him a chance to be an everyday player if he continues to progress.

Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
Appel's season came to an end this weekend when the Cardinal were eliminated from tournament action by Florida State, with Appel doing his part with a meltdown start for just his second loss of the year. This led to a predictable narrative of the outing, potentially costing Appel even more cash after his unexpected drop to the eighth overall pick in the draft earlier in the week. It won’t, though.  Yes, Appel was awful, but we have plenty of starts in which he was great. If you believe in small sample sizes, or rather the lack of information within them, then this start will not matter in the negotiations. The most common question I've gotten since the draft is simply whether Appel will sign. I still think yes, and I still think it will involve some unforeseen shenanigans to get the deal done, and nothing about Friday's start changed my opinion.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Diamondbacks (Triple-A Reno)
Bauer had an overpowering start on Friday at Tucson, striking out 11 batters over seven shutout innings while allowing five hits and just two walks. That led to more questions about when Bauer will arrive in the big leagues, and the pressure is even greater considering Arizona's recent hot streak. Bauer is ready to miss bats in the big leagues and may have even been ready the moment he signed, but is he ready to dominate? With a walk rate just under four per nine innings, Bauer has been an inefficient pitcher who often reaches the 100-pitch mark in the sixth inning; at times, he seems to get too experimental with his stuff as opposed to just blowing hitters away. That makes the strikeout total the only truly dominant number on his stat line, and while he'd help Arizona now, he's not a savior yet.

Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees (Triple-A Empire State)
Betances had another disastrous outing on Saturday, allowing seven hits and seven runs over 4 1/3 innings to lift his ERA to 5.92 with nearly as many walks (56) as strikeouts (57). He's never exactly been mechanically sound at any point in his career, and he's clearly regressed this year; he has a disturbing tendency to cut off his delivery at release, which costs him balance in a delivery already sorely lacking in that department. The 24 year old just doesn't look like a starter anymore, and unless he finds the mechanics that once made him a top prospect, he might not look like a reliever either.

Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (High-A Salem)
Bogaerts was one of the big stories in the Boston system last year, showing huge power as an 18-year-old in the Sally League, but a modest start to the 2012 season left people wondering if they got a little too excited. He has started to heat up along with the weather, and after three hits on Sunday (including his eighth home run of the season), Bogaerts is hitting .292/.360/.489 in 59 games—very impressive numbers considering the age and environment. Bogaerts has clearly made some adjustments, as his strikeout rate has plummeted from 2011 levels, and scouts note that he is a much better pure hitter as opposed to just trying to crush the ball with every swing. While he lacks the athleticism to play shortstop long-term, he should end up a good defensive third baseman, and one with plenty of bat.

Tony Cingrani, LHP, Reds (Double-A Pensacola)
While Cingrani was dominating at High-A, the general sentiment involved waiting to see him do it at the upper levels. With nine strikeouts over six shutout innings on Friday, he's doing just that. Still, he's a tough player to figure out. While he's in his first full-season, he turns 23 next month, and he's still dominating off two pitches: a fastball and a changeup that both earn easy plus grades. Successful starting pitchers with Cingrani's path and lack of a breaking ball are rare, so now the sentiment involves waiting to see it will work in the big leagues.

Matt Den Dekker, OF, Mets (Double-A Birmingham)
One of the best defensive outfielders in the minor leagues, Den Dekker is suddenly the hottest hitter as well, adding nine hits over the weekend as part of a six-game run that has seen him go 17-for-27 to lift his season averages to .340/.397/.563. There are some mirages in those numbers—it's impossible to hit .340 long-term while averaging a strikeout per game—but there's clearly some ability here as well. Previous projections of Den Dekker as a good fourth outfielder are starting to see some upgrades.

Danny Hultzen, RHP, Mariners (Double-A Jackson)
Hultzen allowed five earned runs in his first start of the season, but in his 11 starts since then he's allowed a total of five (leading to an ERA of 0.68 over that stretch) while giving up just 30 hits over 62 1/3 innings. The question now revolves around what he's still doing at Double-A. The level clearly provides no challenge for this top prospect, and even if a big league call-up isn't on the Seattle calendar, spending some time in the Pacific Coast League should be able to provide some additional lessons. He remains the pitcher that might not have the highest ceiling in a talented 2011 draft, but he's the most likely to find immediate big league success.

Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies (High-A Modesto)
Matzek had arguably his best start of the season on Saturday, allowing one hit over seven innings while striking out seven and walking three. He remains a Jekyll and Hyde prospect, but he's been more good than bad this year, sitting with a 2.87 ERA while limiting the California League to a .180 batting average and just one home run. Fifty-one walks in 69 innings is hardly acceptable, though. Matzek's could wind up as anything from a minor league blow-out to a big league star, and it's the kind of starts he had on Saturday that keep hope for the latter alive.

Mark Prior, RHP, Red Sox (Triple-A Pawtucket)
Prior struck out four batters on Friday, and in three appearances for the PawSox, he has now recorded 10 whiffs over 4 2/3 innings while allowing three hits and two walks. His fastball has gotten up to 93 mph, and one insider noted its deception as well; hitters are clearly having a difficult time picking the ball up out of his hand. He's 31 years old, however, and hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2006. Prior could have easily hung them up years ago without any guilt, but there he is, in Rhode Island and missing bats. I don't think there's a player in the minors I'm rooting for more.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  Matt Den Dekker

21 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

crile2

if Bogaerts ends up knocking on the door to the MLB and Middlebrooks has become a main stay at 3rd does Bogaerts has the tools to move to left field?

Jun 11, 2012 12:04 PM
rating: 0
 
mikebuetow

Why, when I see Middlebrooks, do I have scary flashbacks to Shea Hillenbrand?

Jun 11, 2012 12:52 PM
rating: 0
 
fawcettb

Hillenbrand is the comp. The difference is Middlebrook's ace-level defense.

Jun 11, 2012 13:03 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

More likely right (even better)

Jun 11, 2012 13:29 PM
 
Schere

nice to hear Prior's doing well. Thanks for including him.

Jun 11, 2012 12:20 PM
rating: 5
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

I can't imagine how anyone wouldn't be rooting for him.

Jun 11, 2012 13:29 PM
 
gsimpson

Isn't Stanford the "Cardinal," not the "Cardinals?"

Apologies for the pedantry.

Jun 11, 2012 12:37 PM
rating: 1
 
ttt

Either way, bonus points for using pedantry.

Jun 11, 2012 12:46 PM
rating: 9
 
gilgamesh

That's pedantic of you.

Jun 11, 2012 13:59 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Dave Pease
BP staff
(2)

fixed, thanks!

Jun 11, 2012 14:48 PM
 
Ryno23

Kevin, will you be doing your divisional Draft Wraps again this year? Really enjoyed them last year.

Jun 11, 2012 13:02 PM
rating: 5
 
SaberTJ

+ one million to this.

Jun 11, 2012 19:43 PM
rating: 2
 
The Goat

Kevin, can you please explain how Hultzen with an 11.4 BB% in the Southern League is considered the best bet to find immediate big league success, while Bauer with a 10.6 BB% in the PCL is inefficient and not ready to dominate. Thanks.

Jun 11, 2012 14:25 PM
rating: 1
 
Karl Hungus
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

I normally read the Ten to see which 20 year old prospects are lightning. It up. Great to see Mark Prior here. First glance I thought could he have a kid in the majors? He has been working on a comeback for the better part of a decade and this is truly good news. Maddux list 8 to 10 Mohammed and still won a few games. Dickey in by is doing ok for himself. So much stench wafting from a winter with improper urine testing procedures and a bizarre draft b
y your one paragraph.

Jun 11, 2012 15:47 PM
rating: -19
 
Ogremace

Don't forget, he was killing it in spring for the Yankees last year too. It's never a question of results for him, you've just always got to hold your breath for when he gets hurt again. He's got a chance this year because Boston has had so many bullpen issues, but I'd put his 2012 IP at 7 and no higher. As a Yankee fan, I respectfully reserve the right not to root for him, right now at least.

Jun 11, 2012 16:29 PM
rating: -3
 
Richard Bergstrom

You were coherent for about two sentences and a half, then the meds must've kicked in.

Jun 11, 2012 22:37 PM
rating: 14
 
R.A.Wagman

Very cool about Prior. Even if the Red Sox were playing the Blue Jays, I would cheer a three-up, three-down for the home team should Prior be on the mound.
I still have a vivid memory from when I was living in Tel Aviv. Walking to work one day, I ran across a mail man wearing a Mark Prior Cubs jersey.

Jun 11, 2012 17:20 PM
rating: 3
 
anderson721

When I saw the name Mark Prior, I had of vision of Alec Guinness saying to Mark Hamilton, "Now there's a name I haven't heard in a long,long time"

Jun 11, 2012 18:08 PM
rating: 8
 
delatopia

Um, that would be Mark Hamill. A forgotten actor even within his bright shining moment.

Jun 11, 2012 20:02 PM
rating: 3
 
Richard Bergstrom

I thought his bright and shining moment came in "Jay and Silent Bob Strikes Back"

Jun 11, 2012 22:38 PM
rating: 3
 
APV2600

Have you seen any reports on Steven Wright's knuckleball? He has been putting up steady numbers in Akron all season with it, and I'm curious as to how close to major league calibre it looks.

Jun 11, 2012 21:12 PM
rating: 2
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Jason ... (06/11)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock: 2012 Dra... (06/08)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Future Shock: Picking ... (06/14)
Next Article >>
What You Need to Know:... (06/12)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, Apri...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: April 17, 2015
Going Yard: How Bryant Can Crush
The Call-Up: Kris Bryant
BP Boston
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: So You Want to Trade Your Draft...
BP Bronx

MORE FROM JUNE 11, 2012
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Speculating on Mid-...
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Second, Short, and Catcher for ...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Trumbo, the New Pujols?
The Week in Quotes: June 4-June 10
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Monday, June 11
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, June 11
What You Need to Know: Monday, June 11

MORE BY KEVIN GOLDSTEIN
2012-06-13 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2012-06-12 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
2012-06-12 - Future Shock Blog: Slots Are Dead, Long Live...
2012-06-11 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten Pack
2012-06-11 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Jorge Soler: A Quick Prim...
2012-06-08 - Premium Article Future Shock: 2012 Draft Stat Leaders
2012-06-08 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game...
More...

MORE FUTURE SHOCK
2012-06-20 - Premium Article Future Shock: All Gap Team
2012-06-18 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten Pack
2012-06-14 - Premium Article Future Shock: Picking Pitchers
2012-06-11 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten Pack
2012-06-08 - Premium Article Future Shock: 2012 Draft Stat Leaders
2012-06-05 - Premium Article Future Shock: First Round Recap
2012-06-04 - Future Shock: 2012 Mock Draft
More...