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June 8, 2012

Future Shock

2012 Draft Stat Leaders

by Kevin Goldstein

Now that the 2012 draft is in the books, let's look at the players most likely to perform. I began to think about actual total performance projections—which is plenty dangerous—but then I began to think about individual categories, which led quickly to your standard fantasy categories, which ultimately created a fun challenge. So here are my projected 2012 draft fantasy stats.

Batting Average: Tyler Naquin, OF, Indians (15th overall pick)
Naquin was seen as more of a late first-round pick by many, as he has a classic tweener profile where he lacks both the speed for center field and the power normally associated with a corner spot. What nobody questions is his plus-plus hit tool, and he's easily the college bat in this draft most likely to hit .300 consistently. Risk Level: Moderate.

Home Runs: Courtney Hawkins, OF, White Sox (13th overall pick)
There are players in this draft with more raw power than Hawkins, but Hawkins is still the most likely to tap into it. He has a classic right field profile with the arm, the power and decent athleticism, and the second he signs, he's the No. 1 prospect in the White Sox system by a wide margin. As a high school pick, he'll take a while, but he should be worth it. Risk Level: High.

RBI: Carlos Correa, SS, Astros (1st overall pick)
The top pick in the draft might not accumulate the highest RBI totals, but they could be the most valuable RBI due to his position. A big, athletic shortstop with the potential for average power if not a bit more, Correa could be a 80+ RBI machine from a position where run production is hard to find. Risk Level: Moderate.

Stolen Bases: D.J. Davis, OF, Blue Jays (17th overall pick)
Davis was the fastest player in the draft, but what separates him from all of the speed demons in any draft is his baseball abilities. Beyond the wheels, he's a very good center fielder, and he offers plenty of bat speed as well, making him less of a slap hitter and more of a line drive-type. Speed alone does not get a player in the first round, though, as they have to have baseball ability as well; Davis has just that with the potential to steal 50+ annually if the bat develops as expected: Risk Level: Moderately High.

Runs: Byron Buxton, OF, Twins (2nd overall pick)
No player in this draft can match Buxton's all-around tools, but it makes him a very difficult player to project, as his development could go in so many directions. Every tool you are look for is there, but will Buxton become a 30/30 type or a 15/50 type? Both are obvious star-level players—especially in center field—and whatever of many possible ceilings he reaches, it's a guy who is going to cross the plate a lot. Risk Level: High.