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A weak talent class and a new collective bargaining agreement have made the 2012 draft the most unpredictable in recent memory. Further confusing things are huge wild cards early on, especially the Mariners at three and the Royals at five. Still, it seems like there is suddenly a clear first eight picks, it's just the order of the names that end up being confusing.

1. Houston Astros (Slot budget: $7.2M): Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County HS (GA)
This still seems to be a coin flip between Buxton and Appel. If the coin lands on its side, it's Carlos Correa, but while he's in the mix here, he seems like a long shot at this point. The smart money might be on Appel, but there were some early Sunday rumors that checks on signability with him were not going well. This is a gut, but it might be a bad one. .

2. Minnesota Twins ($6.2M): Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
If Appel at #1, then Buxton here. If Buxton, then Appel. All of a sudden—and maybe just because it's the hip thing to do—there are whispers of Correa here as well.

3. Seattle Mariners ($5.2M): Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
Nobody knows what Seattle is doing. They're always considered the most secretive team when it comes to the draft, with one executive joking, “I'm not sure anyone in the room knows what they're going. I just think Jack Z. runs into the room five minutes before the draft to tell them all who they're taking.” Nobody had them on Danny Hultzen last year, and after passing on last year's workout stud in Francisco Lindor, they won't do it again. If Correa doesn't go here, he could fall as far as No. 7 to San Diego, and frankly, for a player that talented to drop that far just doesn't make sense. If it's not Correa, it's no secret that they're big players on Mike Zunino.

4. Baltimore Orioles ($4.2M): Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU
The Orioles would love the get Buxton here, but that's not happening. Gausman is rumored to be their favorite among all the college arms, so they'll be happy to get him. There's a late rumor of them considering Fried here, but few buy it.

5. Kansas City Royals ($3.5M): Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
Logic says the Royals will select from whichever of the big three college arms are left, but teams are having problems getting away from the fact that when GM Dayton Moore saw Zimmer, he saw him bad, and that could be a tough sell. Like Seattle, the Royals are an early wild card who could go with Fried, Zunino or even a tier two college arm to save their spending cap for later picks.

6. Chicago Cubs ($3.25M): Albert Almora, OF, Mater Academy (FL)
There's really no other names attached to the Cubs at this point. The presence of Correa could create a difficult decision, and there might be some interest in Fried, but they clearly prefer the high school position players.

7. San Diego Padres ($3M): Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco
This is hardly the Padres' first choice, but they still could be pleased, as few scenarios had Zimmer dropping this far three weeks ago. Like the Cubs, they're big fans of Almora and Correa, and Fried would also be considered if still available.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates ($2.9M): Mike Zunino, C, Florida
The rumors of the Pirates reaching for Deven Marrero will not go completely away, but fewer and fewer teams seem to believe them. All of a sudden, Zunino could fall surprisingly far, and it's hard seeing him dropping past the Pirates, as there is a clear top eight players for teams, and he's the last one on the board. Still, there are some teams in the next four picks kicking the tires on Zunino, and hoping wildly for him to get to them.

9. Miami Marlins ($2.8M): Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll HS (TX)
The Marlins are looking at high school bats, and have a preference for Hawkins due to his power. Dahl could be in play here, and there's some thought they could go the safe route with a college arm, specifically Andrew Heaney.

10. Colorado Rockies ($2.7M): David Dahl, OF, Oak Mountain HS (AL)
The Rockies seem to prefer Hawkins among the high school outfielders, but Dahl impressed in his workout at Coors and the Rockies would be happy here. There are a couple of weird Gavin Cecchini rumors here, and some wonder if the front office is feeling some job pressure, which could lead to a safer pick with a college arm like Heany, Chris Stratton, or Michael Wacha.

11. Oakland Athletics ($2.625M), Joey Gallo, 3B, Bishop Gorman HS (NV)
The A's would love to have something fall to them, specifically Zimmer, Zunino or Fried. If that doesn't happen, their back up plans seem to be all over the board. They'll be tempted by their choice of the next group of college arms, but Gallo has as much raw power as anyone in the draft, and scouts that believe he can end up adequate at third base have pushed him up some boards.

12. New York Mets ($2.55M): Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
Forty-eight hours ago, I would have done a mock without Giolito, but he suddenly has a number of rumored landing spots, beginning with New York, who seem to be definitely at least kicking the tires on the draft's biggest wild card. He's a tough sign here, an even tougher one later, but the Mets are rumored to be making another splash. If they get cold feet today, they could go in a number of directions, all of them high school-based, and in particular Corey Seager, Cecchini and another possible difficult sign in Lance McCullers.

13. Chicago White Sox ($2.475M): Marcus Stroman, RHP, Duke
A late rumor has the White Sox, always one of the most conservative of drafters, looking at Stroman with the belief that he could help the big league bullpen as early as September. If they turn away from the 5-foot-9 righty, the club is still connected solely to college pitchers, with the usual suspects of Wacha, Heaney and Stratton all mentioned.

14. Cincinnati Reds ($2.375M): Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State
The run on college arms is expected to last from pick 13-15. Heaney might not have the highest ceiling, but he's the most polished of them and has a chance to beat any starting pitcher in the draft to the big leagues. Stratton is also being considered.

15. Cleveland Indians ($2.25M): Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State
The Indians are also looking at college arms, but not exclusively. They seem to only have interest in Stratton and Heaney, and if both are gone, they could order off the menu with a college position player and Stanford's Stephen Piscotty could be a surprising dark horse candidate here.

16. Washington Nationals ($2.125M): Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State
Rumors of Marrero going here have become louder than the ones of him going to Pittsburgh at eight. He's a Scott Boras client; the Nationals clearly have no issues with those, and they have a system with few up-the-middle prospects.

17. Toronto Blue Jays ($2M): Lance McCullers, RHP, Jesuit HS (FL)
Most believe that the Blue Jays will continue to be both creative and aggressive in the draft. Giolito makes sense here, but that might require some maneuvering that is difficult to figure out. McCullers has one of the best pure arms in the draft, and is not considered the easiest of signings.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers ($1.95M): Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M
I just have to get Wacha off the board here, as he's expected by many to go in the early teens. The Dodgers have been primarily attached to high school arms like Ty Hensley and Lucas Sims, but a quick return might appeal to new ownership looking to make a mark.

19. St. Louis Cardinals ($1.9M): Addison Russell, SS, Pace HS (FL)
The Cardinals are another team with two first-round picks, but they don't seem to be connected to Giolito. Russell won't be the easiest of signs, but the Cardinals can give a little bit extra to add a big athletic shortstop to their system.

20. San Francisco Giants ($1.85M): Ty Hensley, RHP, Santa Fe HS (OK)
The Giants are looking at high school arms, and Hensley's size, current velocity and projection could move him to the top of the pack. Florida high school righty Walker Weickel might lead the list of other considerations.

21. Atlanta Braves ($1.825M): Tanner Rahier, SS, Palm Desert HS (CA)
The Braves are firmly in "best player available" mode, and hoping for an unexpected slide. Rahier has been sliding up boards over the last two weeks, and had an outstanding workout for Atlanta.

22. Toronto Blue Jays ($1.8M): Clint Coulter, C, Union HS (WA)
There are a number of dynamics in play with this pick. The second of Toronto's two in this round, the Blue Jays could go with a conservative quick sign here both to save money, and because there is no compensation for not signing the player selected here. It won't be a crazy reach, and Coulter is one of many players mentioned here as moving a few slots above where their talent might suggest.

23. St. Louis Cardinals ($1.775M): Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson
Another player who needs to find a home, Shaffer is a good find here as St. Louis can cut a deal with him to stop the slide. Plenty of affordable high school players in the mix here as well, especially position players with tools like D.J. Davis and Lewis Brinson.

24. Boston Red Sox ($1.75M): Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe HS (LA)
This is an ideal fit for Boston, as Cecchini's brother Garin is in the system, and the club has a long history with Gavin. This is another spot for Rahier, and they have interest in Piscotty as well as a number of high school arms.

25. Tampa Bay Rays ($1.725M): D.J. Davis, Stone HS (MS)
Since the Rays started drafting towards the end of the first round as opposed to the beginning, they've focused on tools, and Davis is the fastest player in the draft. Brinson could also be in play here, as well as some high school arms.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks ($1.7M): Lewis Brinson, OF, Coral Springs HS (FL)
If there's a position player who looks like he can slot into the end of the first round, he's been rumored to go to Arizona. Late rumors have them focusing on Brinson, who arguably has the highest ceiling of any high school position player in the draft, but there is fatty tuna in the finest sushi restaurants that isn't as raw. Brinson is in the mix for a number of teams at the end of this round, and he doesn't get past Oakland at 34.

27. Milwaukee Brewers ($1.675M): Corey Seager, SS, Northwest Carabarrus HS (NC)
Seager is one of the toughest players to find a home for. He has some significant bonus demands, but few teams in the upper half of the first round seem to be attached. The Brewers can try to get a little creative here, spending more with this pick and less with the one directly following it.

28. Milwaukee Brewers ($1.65M): Victor Roache, OF, Georgia Southern
After missing most of the college season with a wrist injury, Roache could be a nice find here after leading Division I in home runs in 2011. He has plenty of raw power, and isn't loaded with leverage.

29. Texas Rangers ($1.625M): Matt Smoral, LHP, Solon HS (OH)
The Rangers seem to be focused solely on upside. D.J. Davis reportedly had an outstanding workout with them, but there's a late rumor of the club looking to find a way to sign Smoral, who missed nearly the entire year due to a broken bone in his foot. Nobody has gotten a good look at him this year, which has scared many teams off, but six-foot-seven lefties who can touch 95 mph don't exactly grow on trees.

30. New York Yankees ($1.6M): Stephen Piscotty, OF, Stanford
The Yankees are attached to any number of high school righties, especially Weickel and Sims. Later rumors have them looking at position players, especially college ones, and especially Piscotty.

31. Boston Red Sox ($1.575M): Zach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty HS (FL)
The Red Sox should have their choice of a number of high school arms, with all of the usual suspects in play. Eflin is actually a nice catch this low with size, projection and plenty of right-now velocity.

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mrenick
6/04
I hope your Astros selection is right. I really want the Astros to take a chance with Buxton or Correa. I am so not on the Appel bandwagon.
mhmosher
6/04
I hope your Mets selection is wrong. I want no part of Giolitto. Wasted pick if he sticks to his guns and doesn't sign.
kgoldstein
6/04
Nobody is going to take Giolito without due diligence and plenty of conversations before hand about what it will take to sign.
mhmosher
6/04
The injury concerns are big too though. To me, as a Mets fan, they need a bat. They have a lot of pitching on the farm. They need power.
Behemoth
6/04
On the other hand, there's no other way that you can get someone with 1.1 talent at that stage in the draft. OK, one day he may need Tommy John, and that isn't as risk-free as people seem to think, but he's a good way ahead of anyone else that will be available at 12. Also, the Mets farm is not exactly full of talent right now - in fact, it would look pretty thin if either Harvey or Wheeler got hurt. I wouldn't say they are at a stage to do anything apart from BPA.
mhmosher
6/04
The Mets farm is mid-pack and getting better all the time. But its pretty thin regarding bats. I hope they take a stick, that's all. Giolito's injury scares the hell out of me.
kgoldstein
6/04
There's not a power bat that makes sense there, and teams don't draft for need in the first round generally.
edman8585
6/04
I can't find this answer anywhere. Do you still get a comp pick for not signing a pick?
kgoldstein
6/04
I promised this to someone, so here it is:

I always feel bad for fans of teams that don't have a first-round pick, so lets have some fun and project players for those teams' first selections. Sure these are shots in the dark on some level, but remember in 2007 that I projected the Astros to select outfielder Colin DeLome with their first pick at 111 overall. They didn't select him there, but they did two rounds later.

40. Philadelphia Phillies ($1.29125M): Shane Robinson, RHP, Lakewood HS (CA)

The Phillies tend to focus on high school kids high on tools, but the pitching class could end up looking much more impressive than the hitting class in the supplemental first round. Robinson has the size and projectability the Phillies could be looking for.

91. Detroit Tigers ($531,800): Tony Renda, 2B, California

The Tigers drafted very conservatively in 2011, so let's continue that trend here. There are precious few middle infielders in the Detroit system, and Renda is one of those little second basemen who just flat-out hits.

114. Los Angeles Angeles ($416,300): Trey Williams, SS, Valencia HS (CA)

The Angels will be firmly in best available player mode. Williams' father Eddie played for two southern California teams in the Padres and Dodgers, and like his father, Trey projects as a big third baseman who can hit.
GregLowder
6/04
That's a cool and fun thing to do.
denny187
6/04
"1.29125M"

I love that MLB's new slots go down to the nearest $10. Why not $1,291,260?
crile2
6/04
this should be an extremely interesting draft given the talent level and new rules... kevin have two brothers ever played together on the same team (let alone the same side of the infield) in any professional level, which could happen with the cecchini brothers if the draft falls like you've predicted?
kgoldstein
6/04
Um, The Alou family? Tons of them.
gdragon1977
6/04
Big and Little Poison too
edwardarthur
6/04
Cal and Bill Ripken come immediately to mind.
vtadave
6/04
Too many to list, but of course the most memorable pairing was the Canseco brothers on the 1990 A's.
Yarky1
6/04
Also, Barry Larkin's identical twin wasn't officially on the Reds' roster, but he'd sub when Larkin was injured.
Oleoay
6/05
Both Boones, though Bret was at 2B and Aaron was at 3B with some appearances at 2B and SS.
mattseward
6/04
Wasn't Tim Beckham's brother drafted in the same year by the Rays and played early on the same teams, Bryce Harper's brother was as well if I recall.

I would guess it is much more common than you'd think. The difference is where they are legitimate prospects as those guys were org guys really so why not draft them to help your high priced #1 pick settle in
gdragon1977
6/04
The Twins drafted and kept Jake Mauer in their system for a few years as well, I believe he's managing somewhere now. They also signed Bill Mauer as an undrafted free agent if I recall correctly, and he pitched a couple of years.
kgoldstein
6/04
Jake is managing at High-A Fort Myers, and is very well respected in that department.
gdragon1977
6/04
I was going to say, I couldn't remember which affiliate he was with but I remembered I'd read nothing but good things about him as a manager.
adrock
6/04
Regarding the Jays' pick at 22, I've read that under the new CBA, the pick is in fact protected for one year. Did the rules change, or will they lose the 22nd pick without compensation if he isn't signed?
kgoldstein
6/04
It is protected. That was an error, and I apologize.
antonio
6/04
The Jays' #22 pick is now protected, per the new CBA, no?
Rockshu
6/04
Would love for the Blue Jays to go big at 17 with McCullers (or Giolito, or Seager) even if it means the #22 pick isn't particularly exciting.
Behemoth
6/04
One of these three is not like the other two imo. Giolito might require pretty huge creativity - like pretty much punting the other first-rounder, while I'd guess that the other two are more just the usual talk of wanting bigger bonuses, but would end up settling for pretty close to the slot.
Rockshu
6/04
I was under the impression 22 was protected as well: https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/201767844952817664
jcjohnson
6/04
Harper's brother Bryan is in the Nats' system, but I'm pretty sure he's never played on the same team as Bryce. He's only ever played in Gulf Coast League, and Bryce started at Low A.
preams
6/04
Thanks for the mock, Kevin. Really looking forward to today.
I was curious about how a healthy Gioloto would have compared to Archie Bradley from last year.
jparke23
6/04
Kevin, is there any chance Corey Seager chooses not to sign and ever makes it to South Carolina as a Gamecock?
kgoldstein
6/04
Yes, and a very real chance. He's considered a very very difficult sign if he gets past 15.
IvanGrushenko
6/04
Is Joey Gallo the next Mark Reynolds? Is pitching a legitimate fallback option for him?
kgoldstein
6/04
He hasn't even been drafted yet, and you want to know about fallback options. What if he's really good?
Yarky1
6/04
Is that possible? I don't really know anything about him besides what you've said, but it doesn't seem like it.
kgoldstein
6/04
Really? You just assume that a first round pick is going to stink. Where am I going wrong in the communication process? Serious question.
Yarky1
6/04
Well, you have him 27th in a weak draft. What is the average expected value out of that? Then, you said that he profiles as a first baseman for a lot of people, and (reading between the lines) he's probably going to be a low-average guy. Seems like the odds are strongly against him being even an average major leaguer with all that and that he has almost no star potential (McGwire is the only star major leaguer I can think of that fits that profile--and I'd assume that that wouldn't be a fair comparison).
Yarky1
6/04
McGwire was also a strong-armed third baseman/pitcher when drafted, right? But he was taken 10th in what I think I've read was a strong draft and probably much more highly regarded at the time.
kgoldstein
6/04
I try to be realistic about players, so as much as I like to tell people not to assume they're stars, I don't think people should assume they'll suck, either.
Yarky1
6/04
I appreciate it, for sure. I'm a big fan of the site and of your work in particular. Might be my own pessimism (A's fan here) in there. It would be fair to say that he has a well under 50% chance to be a regular, right?
Yarky1
6/04
Maybe under 50% to appear in the majors, too?
preams
6/04
Look over the numbers for 1st round picks in general. I wouldn't be surprised if every player after the top-10 is below 50% to get significant major league time.
kgoldstein
6/04
Might be able to say that about the 8th pick too.
Yarky1
6/04
Would he be a better prospect as a pitcher?
preams
6/04
He's still the 27th best amateur player (or so) in the nation. That's pretty high praise, no?
IvanGrushenko
6/04
For the general population, yes, but in terms of how likely that person is to be even an average major leaguer, not really. As Yarky1 says above, he's a guy with massive power whose ability to stick at 3B is under some question and has contact issues even at the HS level. To me that sounds like he's Mark Reynolds in an optimistic scenario.
preams
6/04
Right. But what I'm saying is that Mark Reynolds is a pretty good baseball player.
gdragon1977
6/04
Or Reynolds is at least good enough not to give up on him and turn him into a pitcher (if he had some pitching ability)
Oleoay
6/05
Besides, being able to draft and develop a below average major leaguer can save a team a few million dollars on the next Xavier Nady-type to fill the bench.
dethwurm
6/04
I get the feeling that there will be a greater-than-usual number of unsigned picks, mostly HSers outside the top 10 or so who want to take a shot at college and being top-5 in 3 years. Have you heard any predictions or worries about something like that happening?
kgoldstein
6/04
I think the percentage of 1st round picks signing will be in line with previous years. The later rounds might be more interesting.
seabass77
6/04
Kevin, I go under the impression that if a team wants to get to the World Series they need to have a couple future Hall of Famers. With the draft, I always wonder who has the most potential to go the Hall of Fame (I know, sort of ridiculous to try and predict such a thing).

Do MLB teams view the draft like that?

Care to make a guess about who has that potential or is it just obvious that the the top picks are the ones that teams think could be future Hall of Famers?
Oleoay
6/05
Can you name a Ranger who is a future Hall of Famer?
seabass77
6/05
I think Josh Hamilton is a possibility. Michael Young has an outside chance. Not saying it's a hard rule but it seems in most professional sports the teams that make the finals have a couple. The only team I could think of that doesn't appear to have a future Hall of Famer was the Pistons team that won the NBA title in the early 2000s.
Oleoay
6/05
Hamilton's career started too late and I don't know if he'll be healthy enough to rack up those milestone numbers.

Young has an outside chance at 3000 hits, but I think in the context of your question, he wouldn't qualify as a superstar and whether he is a star or not is debatable.

In other words, a team does not need Hall of Famers to get to the World Series though they obviously help.
gdragon1977
6/05
The HoFer-less Angels beat the Barry Bonds Giants in 2002, who also had two other guys with HoF cases worth mentioning (Kent and Lofton)
seabass77
6/05
that's a good one.
dethwurm
6/05
Yu Darvish!

The writers would probably never go for him regardless of what he does, but I think Adrian Beltre will have an interesting case if he ages gracefully (by which I mean a handful more 4 and 5 win seasons in TEX).

Also, obviously they're just beginning their careers, but it's not unthinkable that Andrus and/or Feliz could make it. Or Kinsler, for that matter; you'd never bet on anyone to follow the Jeff Kent career path, but it's been done.

So, no shoe-ins, but they've got some possibles. If we set the O/U of HOF on the 2012 Rangers at 0.5, I just might take the over.
chabels
6/04
Do you have any sense of how many players will get a contract at slot? With all the talk of how weak this draft is, it seems a shame to have to pay 1-5 money to a player who in another year would be 1-20. But it seems like any player who does so would be the victim of gross agent malpractice, why would you possibly accept less?

Live by the hard slot, die by it, I guess.
igoinsane67
6/04
I rather the Royals take a chance on Giolito. Great upside and young enough, if TJ surgery is a necessary, he'd still be a teenager when rehabbing.
ehunke
6/04
Ehere do you think Soler signs and will that have any impact on this draft?
Dawsonb
6/04
I know this is off topic a little, but when is Austin Wilson draft eligible again? I know he's kinda fallen off the map at Stanford, but he might be a nice little piece for a team to try to develop in the later rounds.
kgoldstein
6/04
That's anything but a hidden gem. Draft eligible next year, and sure-fire first round pick.
Leg4206
6/04
Good to know. I've seen him a few times now over the last two years and was curious how his talent was valued.
MarkJLutz
6/04
Who has the highest ceiling among Gallo, Hawkins, and Dahl?
kgoldstein
6/04
For me, Hawkins.
mhmosher
6/04
Please fall to NYM.
LynchMob
6/05
Your first 8 players got drafted in the first 8 spots ... I say that's well done :-)

Especially when you said "there is a clear top eight players for teams" ... nailed it!
Oleoay
6/05
The Pirates must be pretty happy, assuming they can sign Appel.