CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (06/04)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Out of Left Field: Whe... (05/21)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Out of Left Field: Mat... (06/11)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Painting the Black: Is... (06/04)

June 4, 2012

Out of Left Field

The Red Sox Roster Crunch

by Matthew Kory

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

How do you solve a midseason roster crunch? If there are two players for one position, there are a number of options. Trade one of the players, demote one, put one on the disabled list, or even sit one on the bench and play the hot hand. None of those solutions necessarily maximizes the team’s assets, but sometimes that is okay. If we are talking about two last-guy-out-of-the-pen types, then it isn’t of particular importance.

Sometimes the stakes are higher. When the Yankees traded for Alex Rodriguez, they found themselves with two Hall of Fame-caliber shortstops and only one shortstop position (Joe Maddon hadn’t been invented yet). Demoting, trading, and the rest of the above list were not options. Sometimes there are too many babies for the bathwater. Nobody wants dirty babies.

Eight years later, the Red Sox find themselves in a similar, if less star-encrusted, bind. After another midseason injury to starting third baseman Kevin Youkilis, the Red Sox called up 23-year-old Will Middlebrooks to keep the seat warm. Kevin Goldstein rated Middlebrooks a four-star prospect and ranked him as the third-best in the Red Sox system. Baseball America put him first. Middlebrooks hit .285/.328/.506 at three levels in 2011 and followed that up by crushing the ball at Triple-A this season, hitting .333/.380/.677 with nine homers in 100 plate appearances.

Upon arriving in Boston, Middlebrooks did nothing to quiet the hype. In his first three games he had five hits, three of which went for extra bases. He posted a 1.156 OPS with runners in scoring position. One game, manager Bobby Valentine even hit him second in the order. In the 18 games Youkilis missed, Middlebrooks hit .297/.325/.581 with five home runs. This was the ascension of the next Red Sox third baseman, and we were all witnesses.

Then Kevin Youkilis came back.

Red Sox Nation collectively said, “Oh yeah! I totally forgot about that dude.” Normally the solution to such a situation is to slap the slugging 23-year-old on the back, tell him his time is soon, and send him back to the bus rides and Happy-Meal-level per-diems of Triple-A. Maybe that’s what the Red Sox should have done. But they didn’t do that.

At the same time Youkilis had been healing on the DL, so had virtually all of Boston’s professional outfielders. Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Darnell McDonald, Jason Repko, and Ryan Kalish were all on the DL. This meant the Red Sox needed productive outfielders but had more productive corner infielders than they had spots for. Keeping bench- and Triple-A-quality outfielders in the starting lineup while demoting the hot-hitting Middlebrooks was somewhere between an undesirable option and a nonstarter. So, get the braintrust together and, hey! I got it! Why not move a corner infielder to the outfield?

But who? Middlebrooks had never played the outfield in his career going back to Little League. Youkilis had played the outfield more recently than that, two games each in 2008 and 2009, but four games hardly made him a major-league outfielder. Also, anyone who saw him move around third base wasn’t too eager to give him more space to patrol. Also also, he hated it.

That left one more option: first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who had played one game in the outfield for the Rangers in 2005 and, more pertinently, two last season when the Red Sox were dealing with NL rules and wanted both his and David Ortiz’s bats in the lineup. Gonzalez as a Gold Glove first baseman was hardly the team’s first choice to move off his position, but once the options became Gonzalez in the outfield or four plate appearances a game to one of Che-Hsuan Lin, Marlon Byrd, or Scott Podsednik, well, the choice got easier.

That’s where the Red Sox are right now. Adrian Gonzalez is getting regular starts in right field, Kevin Youkilis is playing first base, and Will Middlebrooks is starting at third. This arrangement has worked without incident so far. Youkilis came back on May 22nd and, through Sunday, had hit .314/.385/.543 in 11 games. Middlebrooks is still hitting as well. But, you don’t move your starting first baseman to right field permanently in the middle of the season, right? That would be crazy.

Or would it?

OK, it kind of would. So what do the Red Sox reasonably do? They’re stuck with three players for two positions. The decision will only get more difficult as the outfielders start to get healthy and return to the team. Crawford, Ellsbury, Ross, and Sweeney were all expected to be, to varying degrees, important parts of the team. Soon enough there won’t be room to keep Gonzalez in right, right?

As I see it, there are three reasonable solutions.

1. Make Adrian Gonzalez a regular outfielder and deal Sweeney or Ross

This is the least likely to happen. Sweeney is cheap, good on defense, and productive offensively (though it’s an open question if that will continue), and putting a long-time first baseman in the outfield carries significant injury risk. Gonzalez isn’t hitting particularly well now, but losing him for any length of time would be a body blow to Boston’s playoff chances. You have to believe putting him in the outfield full time would increase the likelihood of that happening. It’s been fine as a short-term solution, but more than that borders on dangerous.

2. Demote Middlebrooks
This seems like the easiest solution. Middlebrooks has been excellent since his arrival, but there are red flags. In 106 plate appearances he’s walked four times and struck out 29 times. That’s what we in the biz call a bad ratio. This has been a steady problem for Middlebrooks throughout his time in the minor leagues as well. It’s possible (some would argue very likely) that this is who he is, that his discipline may improve on the margins but in the end he’s a high-strikeout, low-walk guy who hits for power and plays good defense. There’s nothing wrong with that, but this roster jam creates an opportunity for the kid to learn, or at least try to.

3. Trade Youkilis.
It makes sense, as Youkilis’ contract is up after the season and Middlebrooks is both cheap and, at least to this point, productive. It should come as no shock that the Red Sox are already exploring this option. Youkilis is in the final year of his contract, which pays him $12 million this season. That isn’t cheap, but a former All-Star on a one-year deal with the flexibility of a team option at $13 million (with a $1 million buy-out) has value. Some value. Probably. I think.

Trading Youkilis might net something worthwhile in return, but with the money involved it’s doubtful that whatever Boston received would impact this year’s major-league team. Looking over the team’s 40-man roster shows how little room there is. The outfield is full and should return to strength in a few months. The same can be said of the bullpen, and unless another team is willing to deal a young starting shortstop with on-base skills, there isn’t much room in the infield, either.

If the team decides to go back on the experiment to make Daniel Bard a starter, then there is a spot in the rotation, although they do have Aaron Cook coming off the DL soon. But how many teams would want to simultaneously take on Youkilis and get rid of a good starting pitcher? If a team is adding Youkilis, they fancy themselves a contender, and contenders don’t deal good starters midseason.

Here’s the real problem though. If Youkilis gets injured again (quite possible) or underperforms (unlikely, and if so he’s probably hurt), then the team can just call up Middlebrooks. If the Red Sox trade Youkilis and something happens to Middlebrooks, they can’t call Youkilis up. He’s gone. Trading Youkilis means committing full time to the rookie, and there are some questions as to whether or not that is the right thing to do.

The Red Sox are spending $175 million on player payroll this year. This is a team that is committed to winning, or at least is trying to. There is nothing wrong with playing a rookie at third base, but when that rookie has plate-discipline problems like Middlebrooks does, questions are raised about his viability going forward.

If they didn’t have any other options, then you swallow those questions and push forward, but in this case there is another path. It’s an easily trod path, too. Once the injured players start returning and the outfield returns to strength, the Red Sox should send Will Middlebrooks back to Triple-A. The Kevin Youkilis era in Boston will probably end after this season, but there is no reason to rush it. 

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here

15 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

kjgilber

The other benefit to trading Youkilis, however,is payroll flexibility for this year. The Sox are up against the luxury tax threshold and have stated publicly they do not want to exceed it. Clearing the decks of $8m in 2012 payroll would give them a lot more flexibility to take on contracts at the deadline.

Jun 04, 2012 06:09 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Matt Kory
BP staff

True, but again, where do you add pieces? It's only early June so there is plenty opportunity for needs to crop up and I'm sure the team will look to make moves based on need as the season goes on, but I don't see them not adding a significant piece because of payroll. I believe Larry Lucchino has said as much as well.

Jun 04, 2012 09:08 AM
 
ColonelTom

Trading Youkilis only clears payroll to the extent that the team trading for him is paying his salary. Very few teams can take on the $8M+ remaining on this year's contract, and I doubt anyone will pay him that and send Boston meaningful, cheap talent in return. They'll have to choose whether to clear payroll or get talent in a Youkilis deal - they're not likely to do both.

Jun 04, 2012 09:26 AM
rating: 3
 
misterjohnny
(925)

Dodgers. They can afford to pay him and can't afford to trade prospects instead.

Jun 04, 2012 09:39 AM
rating: 2
 
mpirani

I think they should go one-up on the Tigers and play Youk at shortstop. He'd have better range than Jeter, right?

Jun 04, 2012 09:57 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Matt Kory
BP staff

I'd love to say yes, but... Jeter can still go to his right. As I wrote elsewhere at BP, when Jeter tries to go to his left, he still goes to his right. (It was funnier in the other context.)

I know you were kidding, but I like the outside-the-box (sorry for cliche) thinking. In years past I might've even endorsed the idea, but this year Red Sox starters aren't striking hitters out with near the frequency of past seasons. The result is more balls in play, so defense at shortstop is actually pretty important for Boston.

Jun 04, 2012 10:03 AM
 
newsense

The Sox could get a much better pitcher for Middlebrooks. Plenty of clubs need a long-term fix at 3B. Floyd or Peavy from the White Sox (who really need a third baseman), Greinke from the Brewers (who could move Ramirez to 1B), McCarthy from Oakland, Hamels from the Phillies, Hudson or Kennedy from the DBacks, Wandy from the Astros, Garza or Dempster from the Cubs. The Red Sox have other 3b prospects. Hanging on to Youkilis for another year should allow them to see what they have and open up salary room for a free agent if they don't look too promising.

Jun 04, 2012 10:10 AM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Matt Kory
BP staff

Middlebrooks certainly has more trade value, but he's in the Red Sox long term plans so I doubt they'll trade him. Also, as far as my points above, dealing Middlebrooks requires them to depend on Youkilis to stay healthy. Right now they're in a best-of-both-worlds kind of situation where they have two guys who can play, but one who doesn't have to (Middlebrooks) because he can still learn things in Triple A.

But with Bard's implosion and the innings limits he and Doubront have even without last night, I'm sure the Red Sox will at least explore the market for starters. Matsuzaka could be back soon (within the week if need be) and Aaron Cook is waiting in the wings as well.

Jun 04, 2012 10:16 AM
 
buffum
(458)

More than one Indians fan would offer Ubaldo Jimenez for Kevin Youkilis. Mind you, a decent subset of that group would accept Tim Wakefield, an autographed photo of Bobby Valentine in false mustache mode, or a Cherrystong clam for Ubaldo Jimenez.

Jun 04, 2012 10:40 AM
rating: 3
 
Morris Greenberg

Here's a kind of crazy idea that would be interesting: Barry Zito. He is doing well, the Giants would probably eat up a good portion of his contract and take on Youk's if they wanted to do the trade (freeing up caps space for the Sox while acquiring a good SP, at least for now). The Giants still have Pablo Sandoval on the DL and the Brandon Belt/Aubrey Huff/Brett Pill combo at first isn't panning out, having Youk in the mix is a good addition for them. Thoughts?

Jun 04, 2012 11:41 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Matt Kory
BP staff

The Giants are an interesting trade partner, but I'm not sure they want to give up on Belt yet. Or maybe they do, I don't know. There could be a match, but I doubt the Red Sox want anything to do with Zito or the remains of his contract, his recent resurgence notwithstanding.

Jun 04, 2012 11:56 AM
 
ColKiner

What happens when this roster crunch gets even more complex with Ross, Ellsbury, Kalish, McDonald, and Crawford all on the path back as well. Release Byrd? Release Podsednik? Trade them all?

Jun 04, 2012 15:17 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Matt Kory
BP staff

If they need a roster spot Byrd will get released (he's hitting .271/.287/.323 and Boston is paying him the major league minimum). Podsednik is next in that line. They'll probably want to hold on to McDonald because of his service time, though losing him wouldn't be the end of the world. Ross might be back soon, but Kalish will need time in Triple-A and could conceivably spend the rest of the season there without any harm to his development. It might even be what's best for him in the long run.

However, Ellsbury and Crawford aren't going to be back anytime soon (best guesses put them back in a month or longer so from now) so things could easily change (more injuries, trades, etc.) between now and then.

Jun 04, 2012 15:33 PM
 
CharlieHustler

Byrd will be the first to go, and I would posit that either Nava (options) or McDonald would be next, since Podsednik can play CF and is actually producing. I have wondered why Pedroia isn't being considered as a SS possibility, since it was his position earlier in his non-MLB career, which would make 2b a possible place for either Youkilis or Middlebrooks, but realize that's unlikely for many reasons.

If the above scenario was actually feasible, then Punto could go, and after his display of upper-deck power the other day he might even be tradeable?

Jun 04, 2012 23:23 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Matt Kory
BP staff

They're not sending Nava down now. He's been the best hitter on the team for an extended stretch. I can't see him leaving until Ellsbury and Crawford come back and even then who knows.

I don't see them junking Punto now. As frustrating as he's been to watch both offensively and defensively, they gave him a two year deal and don't really have anyone else who can back up both middle infield spots. If Iglesias was going to come up and start then Aviles could take over that role, but that doesn't appear likely to happen anytime soon.

Jun 04, 2012 23:30 PM
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Geniu... (06/04)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Out of Left Field: Whe... (05/21)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Out of Left Field: Mat... (06/11)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Painting the Black: Is... (06/04)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Raising Aces: Walker on the Wild Side
Premium Article Painting the Black: Pedro Alvarez's Trip Fro...
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, Apri...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: April 17, 2015
Going Yard: How Bryant Can Crush
The Call-Up: Kris Bryant
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: So You Want to Trade Your Draft...

MORE FROM JUNE 4, 2012
The Week in Quotes: May 28-June 3
Premium Article Painting the Black: Is Throwing Strikes Enou...
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Buying Alex Cobb
Value Picks: Second, Short, and Catcher for ...
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Monday, June 4
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, June 4
What You Need to Know: Monday, June 4

MORE BY MATTHEW KORY
2012-06-07 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, June 7
2012-06-06 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, June 6
2012-06-05 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, June 5
2012-06-04 - Premium Article Out of Left Field: The Red Sox Roster Crunch
2012-06-04 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, June 4
2012-06-01 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, June 1
2012-05-31 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, May 31
More...

MORE OUT OF LEFT FIELD
2012-07-02 - Out of Left Field: Williams, Yastrzemski, Na...
2012-06-25 - Out of Left Field: Curt Schilling's Blood Ru...
2012-06-11 - Premium Article Out of Left Field: Matt Barnes and Why We Ne...
2012-06-04 - Premium Article Out of Left Field: The Red Sox Roster Crunch
2012-05-21 - Premium Article Out of Left Field: When You Can't Buy a Loss
2012-05-14 - Premium Article Out of Left Field: On Hitting .400
2012-05-07 - Out of Left Field: Scouting the Scout
More...