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June 1, 2012

Future Shock Blog

Updated Mock: 1-15

by Kevin Goldstein

A day of phone calls has moved many things around significantly. The Mariners at three and Royals at five are suddenly big wild cards with the potential to blow everything up.

1. Houston Astros: Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County HS (GA)

The Astros mix has gone from Buxton/Appel to Buxton/Appel/Correa in recent days, but Correa's surge is probably not enough to go this high. New GM Jeff Luhnow has a long leash in Houston, so he can afford the upside risk. Nobody has a definite feel for what Houston is exactly going to do here, but it's unlikely that they'll order off the menu.

2. Minnesota Twins: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

It seems like a Buxton/Appel binary decision, but some clubs prefer Zimmer over Appel among the big college arms, and Minnesota might be one of them.

3. Seattle Mariners: Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

Appel dropping here would be tempting, but the system is loaded with pitching, and after passing on last year's late surging 17-year-old shortstop in Francisco Lindor, they might not want to do it again. Seattle is always hard to get a read on, and Zunino is in this mix, as are the college arms.

4. Baltimore Orioles: Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU

This still looks like Buxton the dream, but happy with Gausman.

5. Kansas City Royals: Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)

The problem with putting Zimmer here is Zimmer's rough end to the season with Dayton Moore in attendance. If that's the only look the GM got, it could be a hard sell. Still, the club is desperate for pitching, and something wacky could happen here, including Fried or a bit of a reach for Michael Wacha.

6. Chicago Cubs: Albert Amora, OF, Mater Academy (FL)

Pretty much every eyeball in the Cubs front office has been spotted at Almora's late-season games, and his private workout was impressive. One source said this afternoon, “If the Cubs had the No. 1 pick in the entire draft, they might take Almora."

7. San Diego Padres: Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco

The Padres had been attached to the top high school position players all spring, but Zimmer provides far more upside.

8. Pittsburgh Pirates: Mike Zunino, C, Florida

If the Pirates are thinking about taking shortstop Deven Marrero, and few from nine to arguably 20 even have Marrero in their mix, isn't there a good chance that bothers Pittsburgh? Zunino is the far better prospect, and could make up for the dissapointment of Tony Sanchez.

9. Miami Marlins: Courtney Hawkins, OF, Carroll HS (TX)

The general consensus is high school player, and upside, and Hawkins' athleticsm and raw power fit the bill.

10. Colorado Rockies: David Dahl, OF, Oak Mountain HS (AL)

The Rockies have worked out several high school position players, and are especially attached to outfielders like Hawkins, Almora and David Dahl. Fried would be tempting here, but he's gone, as are the other two outfielders.

11. Oakland Athletics, Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M

The A's would like something to fall in their laps, especially Fried or even the possibility of Zimmer. They like some of the high school bats, especially the power of Joey Gallo, but Wacha provides a nice combination of safety and upside with a high floor and some ceiling.

12. New York Mets: Lance McCullers, RHP, Jesuit HS (FL)

The Mets want to show that last year's Brandon Nimmo pick was not an anomaly, and they are truly focused on upside over cost certainty. That's created some Lucas Giolito whispers here, but even as high as 12, Giolito could still be an impossible sign. McCullers has as much velocity as any healthy high school arm in the draft, and is considered signable.

13. Chicago White Sox: Marcus Stroman, RHP, Duke

The is where the run on the tier two college arms begin. Take the next three names and put them in any order, but it doesn't look like the Reds are on Stroman as much as some others. The White Sox would actually prefer Wacha if he's here.

14. Cincinnati Reds: Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State

Not the highest ceiling arm in the draft, but maybe the safest, as he has the polish to begin the 2013 season at Double-A.

15. Cleveland Indians: Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississipi State

He's athletic and can miss bats, but his age has worked against him in the mind of some teams.

 

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  Max Fried,  Michael Wacha

12 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

jtwalsh

Hi Kevin,

The White Sox are saying publicly that they will be drafting for upside (I hope that is true.). If that is the case, would Joey Gallo be a good fit there if he is available?

Jun 02, 2012 04:28 AM
rating: 0
 
Gotribe31

Thanks in advance for all the hard work in the next 72 hrs, Kevin

Jun 02, 2012 05:14 AM
rating: 4
 
R.A.Wagman

I have long heard that the Rockies are known to value "Christian values" in their prospects. I know this has been vilified in some circles, and I am inclined to agree with that vilification. If their religious bent is true, is there any reason to believe that they would actually downgrade Fried if he was available to them at 10?
Thanks for your hard work.

Jun 02, 2012 07:42 AM
rating: 0
 
gdragon1977

Um, what has Fried done exactly? I'm unaware of what you're referring to here.

Jun 02, 2012 13:06 PM
rating: 0
 
R.A.Wagman

Fried is Jewish.

Jun 02, 2012 15:09 PM
rating: 1
 
gdragon1977

Yes, but if we're concerned with "values" I don't see the big difference. If we're concerned with how a prospect feels about the divinity of Christ that's a different story, but I don't see a big "values" based difference between the two, and while I can't speak for the Rockies I can't imagine that they would use it as a reason not to draft a kid. It's not like he's a Satanist.

Jun 04, 2012 08:50 AM
rating: -1
 
BillJohnson

An article on the Rockies approach, from outside either baseball or the Christian/religious webspace, is http://ezinearticles.com/?Define-Your-Position:-Values,-Ethics-and-Leadership&id=334934 (well worth a read). Judging from this article, it would be hard to believe they would downgrade Fried if he was a mensch, i.e., "a person of integrity and honor ... someone to admire and emulate, someone of noble character" (Wikipedia and quotes there), regardless of what his actual religion was.

Jun 03, 2012 12:32 PM
rating: 3
 
R.A.Wagman

I had read positive reports on Fried's makeup. Curious what happens if he is available when the Rockies are up.

Jun 03, 2012 17:22 PM
rating: -1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Fried is a really good kid. I don't think he'll be there, and I don't think it would matter to Colorado.

Jun 03, 2012 17:50 PM
 
amazin_mess

I know you want to take the best available player, but I can't see the Mets taking a pitcher. Their system has a lot of pitching and, at #12, there won't be a "must have" arm available. I'm hoping for Hawkins, but I doubt he falls to their pick. His power is going to put him ahead of that.

Jun 03, 2012 08:59 AM
rating: -1
 
bheikoop

Is there any reason the Twins would go after the low ceiling/high floor of Appel instead of the high impact upside of Correa?

Jun 03, 2012 11:24 AM
rating: -1
 
amazin_mess

Sounds like the Twins can get Buxton, because word is Houston is taking Appel.

Jun 03, 2012 16:57 PM
rating: 0
 
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