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May 31, 2012

Value Picks

Starting Pitchers for 5/31/12

by Paul Sporer

Leaving
Ervin Santana (Yahoo! 67%, ESPN 66%, CBS 87%) has finally seen his ESPN percentage surge, leaving him available in very few leagues now—as it should be in light of his May performance (2.91 ERA in 34 innings), although the timing here isn’t the best as he comes off his worst start of the month during which he walked seven Mariners while allowing four runs in five innings.  Everyone is entitled to a hiccup here and there, though, even if it is against Seattle (just ask Derek Holland), and the important part is that he has allowed just three home runs for the month after allowing 10 in April. 

Ross Detwiler (Yahoo! 20%, ESPN 14%, CBS 24%) labored through a trio of iffy starts (8.16 ERA in 14 innings) which either outright cost him his rotation spot or contributed heavily to him losing his rotation spot.  Either way, Chien-Ming Wang is in and Detwiler is moving to the bullpen.  Don’t completely remove him from your radar, however. There are no guarantees that Wang recaptures his 2006-2007 magic, but for now you can safely cut him in just about all formats. 

Last Chance
Ivan Nova (Yahoo! 48%, ESPN 38%, CBS 81%) and his 2011 success drew plenty of skeptics; his 16-4 record propped him up higher than he deserved when paired with his 5.3 K/9 and 1.7 K/BB.  Flash forward to 2012 and Nova has added nearly four strikeouts to his rate (up to an even 9.0 K/9) while cutting into his walk rate (down to 2.7 BB/9), yielding a sharp 3.3 K/BB in 56 innings. 

At the same time, his BABIP and HR/FB rates have skyrocketed, resulting in an ugly 5.46 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.  His 3.61 xFIP points to how well things could be going if he weren’t as unlucky this year as he was lucky a year ago.  A strikeout per inning arm on the Yankees doesn’t pop up on the waiver wire often, so I would pounce on this likely limited opportunity.  Of course, Wednesday’s outing might leave him available a bit longer.

In Case You Missed It
Speaking of the Yankees, Felipe Paulino (Yahoo! 21%, ESPN 19%, CBS 47%) has bested them twice for six shutout innings within his first five starts, yet he remains widely available.  He has certainly garnered some attention since the last time he was featured here when his ownership rates were 1, 3, and 16 percent, but I am surprised to see that he is still underutilized. 

He had his first bump in the road the second time he faced Baltimore this year, but even with five walks he was just an out from netting a baseline quality start.  I realize the enhanced pitching age we have been in the last few years leaves some enticing options on the wire seemingly at all times, but I don’t think the pool is deep enough that a guy with a 9.9 K/9 should just be left alone after five strong starts.