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March 17, 2003

Prospectus Today

Spring Training Stats Mean Nothing

by Joe Sheehan

Stathead Rejects Stats. Film at 11.

Before last Monday's Padres/Angels game in Phoenix, I was perusing the package of information distributed by the media relations people. While eyeballing the stuff, which included league leaders and the complete stats for the two teams, the thought struck me:

Is there anything as meaningless as a stat sheet on March 10?

Sample size is the obvious reason to be dismissive of exhibition stats, and it's the one we've been pounding on for years. No one gets enough playing time in preseason for the performance to mean anything. Of course, teams make rash decisions based on limited evidence in all months, so there's no reason to expect March to be any different.

Watching Francisco Cordova last week really brought the whole thing into sharp focus for me. Cordova, trying to become the Padres' fifth starter after a couple of years out with elbow problems, came into the game with an ERA of 16.20 in four innings. He proceeded to strike out the side in his first inning, and tossed three good frames overall.

But it wasn't the Angels he was facing. Oh, the uniforms were red and Adam Kennedy and Troy Glaus were in the lineup and someone somewhere in the stands had a stuffed monkey, but it wasn't the Angels. It was the typical hodgepodge of irregulars and Triple-A players that makes up the traveling team for most any Arizona road game; Eric Owens and Julio Ramirez and Benji Gil and guys like that.