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May 22, 2012

Value Picks

First, Third, and DH for 5/22/12

by Michael Street

Though fantasy owners always try to anticipate the next big call-up, those decisions often have more to do with immediate roster needs than long-term concerns. As a wise man once said about life, promotion decisions are what happens when a team’s busy making other plans.

So it was this week with Matt Adams, who started 2012 at Triple-A. While it was his first stint at Triple-A, Lance Berkman’s knee injury made his call-up a necessity, leaving informed fantasy owners scrambling to pick up the hot young prospect. If you had the roster space and the foresight to pick him up before now, congrats; otherwise, don’t beat yourself up for being unable to predict the future and grab Adams if you still can.

Departures
Although Yonder Alonso (Yahoo! 25%, ESPN 34%, CBS 53%) had just three hits in 18 plate appearances last week, he’s hit .328/.397/.459 this month with a 10.3 percent BB% and 14.7 percent K%, improvements on his already-strong 9.8 percent BB% and 16.3 percent K% this season. When I added him last week, I said his ownership rates were at a temporary low, and they rose back above VP thresholds as the fantasy world continues to catch up to the VP writers. Petco will mute Alonso’s power, but his secondary skills will keep his batting average and OBP high enough for use in most mixed leagues.

Clint Hurdle has been playing Casey McGehee over Garrett Jones (Yahoo! 4%, ESPN 1%, CBS 11%) at first base, even against righties. This is a bit surprising since McGehee is hitting only .198/.288/.264 with just two hits in his last 36 plate appearances, while Jones has a .231/.253/.429 line on the year. Whether Jones is hiding an injury or Hurdle is showcasing McGehee for a trade, there’s no room on the VP list for a player who’s not playing, so Jones leaves the list until that changes.

After the return of Justin Morneau from the DL, Minnesota demoted Chris Parmelee (Yahoo! 0%, ESPN 0%, CBS 6%) to the minors, removing what little fantasy value he had.

Arrivals
His mediocrity makes him the regular focus of Jay Jaffe’s Replacement Level Killers, but James Loney (Yahoo! 8%, ESPN 9%, CBS 28%) has playing time plus a career 87.5 percent contact rate (93.5 percent on strikes) and a 8.2 percent walk rate, which equaled two stars from Derek Carty before the season began. Loney usually offers a strong batting average—2010 was his only season below .281—but his ISO has never been higher than his rookie year mark of .275.  Over the past four seasons, that number hasn’t climbed above .145 (2008).