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April 24, 2012

Pebble Hunting

Albert Pujols Never Walks

by Sam Miller

In a press conference at the Winter Meetings, Angels GM Jerry Dipoto was asked why Albert Pujols was worth a long-term deal when so many other stars have disappointed. Here’s Dipoto:

I'll say this, that in regard to the evolution of a hitter, as hitters begin to age, into their 30s, to whatever point you can project, there's a certain quality or trait in a hitter, the patience, that they exhibit. Albert has had an extraordinary career in regard to maintaining control over the strike zone.

There are all sorts of reasons to love Albert Pujols, and all sorts of reasons to give literally tons of money to him. One of those reasons, the one Dipoto identified, is that he has always walked a lot. Of course, walks can be misleading. Sammy Sosa once drew 116 walks, and Daric Barton once drew 110 walks, and nobody would draw the same conclusions about Sosa and Barton based on their walk totals. But Albert Pujols seemed to be somewhere between Sosa and Barton, a guy who drew walks because pitchers respected him and a guy who drew walks because he knew how to draw walks. In 2009, he drew 115 walks, leading the National League and setting a career high. Of the 115, 44—a record for right-handed hitters—were intentional, but that still left 71 that Pujols drew honestly, the 15th-most in the National League, and right in line with Pujols’ career totals:

2001: 63 unintentional walks
2002: 59
2003: 67
2004: 72
2005: 70
2006: 64
2007: 77
2008: 70
2009: 71
2010: 65

And then 2011 happened. Albert Pujols finished fifth in MVP voting, finished third in the NL in home runs, but walked unintentionally just 46 times, a career low. Even the number 46 is a bit misleading. In the second half, he drew just 15 unintentional walks. Jeff Francoeur drew 15 unintentional walks in the second half of 2011. Excluding intentional passes, Jeff Francouer and Albert Pujols walked the same number of times in the second half. I’m going to keep repeating this fact until each of you has audibly said “wow.” Jeff Francouer and Albert Pujols walked the same number of times in the second half of 2011. Jeff Francouer and Albert Pujols walked the same number of times in the second half of 2011. We ready to move on?

And then Albert Pujols switched teams and kept the low walk rate: three unintentional walks in the first 16 games of the season. Albert Pujols is an entirely new hitter than he used to be. This is something to reckon with.

Is Albert Pujols swinging more?
In a minute, we’re going to look at the pitches Albert Pujols is swinging at. That’s a bit of a complicated question, because the pitch-location data is limited and, in some cases, inconsistent. But it’s very easy to answer the question of whether he is swinging more.

2009: 42 percent
2010: 42 percent
2012: 49 percent

Yes, sample size, for sure. Albert Pujols has swung at more pitches this year, but because we're wary of sample size we know that it doesn’t mean he’ll keep swinging at more pitches this year—even if swing rate is just about fastest thing to stabilize

But I skipped 2011 for a reason. Pujols’ swing rate in 2011 was 44 percent, which makes you think that 2012 would probably regress toward the higher, but not too high, swing rate of 2011. But 44 percent in 2011 is really misleading.

First half of 2011: 41 percent
Second half of 2011: 49 percent

There is no gradual trend here. Albert Pujols never swung at 44 percent of pitches. He just started swinging at 49 percent, darned near overnight, and Albert Pujols swings at 49 percent of pitches now. I’m less concerned about the sample-size thing knowing that.

Is Albert Pujols swinging at worse pitches?
Walks are great, but if Pujols is simply swinging at more hittable pitches it might not be bad at all. He doesn’t seem to be swinging more at hittable pitches.

According to our plate-discipline numbers, Pujols swung at 26 percent of pitches outside the zone in 2010 and 29 percent in 2011. We haven't calculated his 2012 rate yet, but StatCorner's numbers have been similar to our numbers and show a spike: 27 percent in 2010, 33 percent in 2011, 35 percent this year. StatCorner's figures include intentional balls, too; Pujols sees fewer intentional balls now, so on pitches that require him to make a decision, the difference is growing even more quickly. (In case you're wondering, the overall swing rates above exclude intentional balls, so that isn't an explanation for why Pujols is swinging at more pitches overall.) 

He’s also swinging at more off-speed pitches. Year-by-year swing percentages for sliders+curves+changeups:

2009: 40 percent
2010: 40 percent
First half 2011: 39 percent
Second half 2011: 47 percent
2012: 53 percent

In 2011, Pujols saw 113 sliders that were about a half-inch or more off the plate outside. Sixty-four of them came in the first half, and Pujols swung at 12 of those. Forty-nine of them came in the second half, and Pujols swung at 17 of those. Fifteen fewer outside sliders, five more swings.

So, yes, Albert Pujols is swinging at worse pitches. In some cases, the very worst pitches:

Is Albert Pujols simply pressing?
I mean, maybe. But, specifically, did he show the same swinging tendencies when he started slowly last year, before he started hitting again? No. Through June 1, 2011, when Pujols had a .755 OPS and was coming out of the two worst full months of his career, he had swung at just 41 percent of pitches and just 37 percent of curve/change/sliders. As noted, Pujols began swinging more midway through the 2011 season, and the trend is perhaps accelerating during—but not necessarily because of—his slump.

Are pitchers being more aggressive and throwing Pujols more strikes?
In other words, is Pujols walking less because pitchers are simply walking him less? That doesn't seem to be it. According to our data, based on Mike Fast’s strike zone definitions, pitchers in 2010 threw 48 percent of pitches to Pujols in the strike zone, and 47 percent in 2011. Stat Corner’s numbers are similar to ours and show no significant rise for 2012. Pitchers also aren’t throwing him more fastballs this year than they did in 2009 and 2010.

Is this just noise?
It’s hard to imagine this is nothing. As noted above, swing rates stabilize almost immediately. Pujols’ swing rates have never shown much variance in his career. He has never topped 45 percent of pitches swung at. But going back to the All-Star break we have nearly two-thirds of a season’s worth of plate appearances, and he is swinging at nearly 20 percent more pitches than he had been. He is just a different hitter. Over the past three seasons, Todd Helton has swung at 41 percent of pitches, and Vernon Wells has swung at 49 percent of pitches. Albert Pujols has gone from Todd Helton’s approach to Vernon Wells’ approach.

I wouldn't nearly go so far as to say it's the reason Pujols has started slowly this year. He hit .319/.375/.584 in the second half of 2011, despite expanding his strike zone. It’s the reason he’s not walking, but it’s not necessarily the reason he’s not hitting. But, man. Ten years. Ten years means nearly infinite ways for things to go wrong, most of which we never see coming, and this might just be one of those ways we never saw coming. (“He has the strike-zone control of a hit-for-average, contact guy," Angels GM Jerry Dipoto reiterated this spring.)

The Angels signed Albert Pujols for 10 years because even the decline phase of a .328/.420/.617 hitter should be pretty good. It turns out they’re getting a different hitter entirely. Probably a great hitter, maybe still the best hitter, and if there's anything you take from this piece, I really hope it's not that Albert Pujols is anything less than awesome still. He is awesome still, and I hate all of you who quit reading way up there and think that I'm giving up on Pujols. But he's a different hitter. Are his eyes getting worse? Are his reactions getting worse? Is he guessing at pitches to compensate for slowed bat speed? Is he in his own head? Is this related to his wrist injury last June, the one he came back from with almost miraculous speed? Or is it all nothing, or even part of Pujols' evolution as a hitter, and will the next seven or eight years at least work out beautifully for the Angels? Quite possibly! But, man. Ten years.

Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here

Related Content:  Plate Discipline,  Albert Pujols

27 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

louschuler

In the Sports Illustrated cover story published a few weeks ago, the writer was surprised to see Albert deliberately hitting balls out of the zone in BP. He told the writer he took great pride in his ability to hit balls off the plate.

I've followed Albert every game of his career, going back to 2000 in the Midwest League. I think Albert has his own version of the game. Somewhere along the line, he made a decision to expand his strike zone. I'm surprised the data show this change occurring in the second half of 2011, because to my eyes it's been apparent at least since the 2009 playoffs that Albert was swinging at pitches he used to take.

Apr 24, 2012 04:24 AM
rating: 4
 
amazin_mess

He's still terrific, but be glad your favorite team doesn't have that contract. Wow.

Apr 24, 2012 04:42 AM
rating: 14
 
ttt

Maybe Jeff Francouer has finally learned plate discipline. Ok, maybe not.

Apr 24, 2012 07:47 AM
rating: 5
 
Robotey

Excellent analysis. Albert is a fun study in man vs. myth. Part of baseball's charm is that every so often a player hits so well that he seems unstoppable. Recall Barry Bonds in 2002 WS. One time Angels pitch to him, he rockets one into the night off of Percival--unfortunately for the Giants he couldn't hit a game-tying 2 run HR with no one on base. Pujols certainly at times has appeared this way, and was compensated accordingly. But watching him against the Orioles' SP Chen on Sunday, Albert looked absolutely mortal. If I were an Angels fan--which, despite living in LA since 1999 I will never be, simply because the team, its fans, announcers and its ballpark are such a milquetoast snooze--I would be alarmed.

Apr 24, 2012 07:51 AM
rating: 0
 
morpheusq

My team gave him the contract 'amazin,' but I'm not in the regret stage yet. I believe he's pressing to make something happen: Expanding his strike zone, taking swings where his back foot comes flying off the ground rather then stay planted, and hitting a ton of groundballs to the left side of the infield. All of it tells me he's pressing--and who wouldn't be? Last year he's trying to prove he's worth a ton of money. This year, cash in hand, he's trying to prove he's worth it. I'll be worried if this is what he looks like at the end of May--but I bet we see Pujols being Pujols sooner rather then later.

Apr 24, 2012 07:55 AM
rating: 1
 
amazin_mess

Hey - don't take me wrong - I think the Angels have a bright future. I love DiPoto as GM. Pujols will start raking very soon. But I think we can all agree that the last few years of that deal will sting a bit.

But kudos to Arte Moreno for going for it.

Apr 24, 2012 08:25 AM
rating: 0
 
OonBoon

Good point on the wrist injury. What if it hurts him to check his swing? I don't know what a typical rate of check swings would be, probably less than 7% of pitches, but maybe not. Maybe he has to take full hacks or risk shredding something internal.

Apr 24, 2012 08:12 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Matt Kory
BP staff

First, I love this article (I know some may not want me to say that because I work here and Sam works here, but I do so I will).

Reading it, I wonder if the answer is a combination of factors. I mean, duh, of course it's a combination of factors, but what I mean is we're looking at the last season's worth of data (from the second half of 2011 to now) as a singular set, but as Sam details, that data encompasses some odd circumstances. Pujols a) recovered from a wrist injury very quickly, b) came off the worst stretch of his career (or one of the worst, I'm not sure but I think it was the worst), c) played in both the AL an NL, d) played with two different teams in two different states blah blah blah.

So I wonder. If just some of that is to blame, and he 'fixes' a little bit here and little bit there, maybe the numbers don't look so stark.

And I hope. I don't have any particular love for Pujols, but as a baseball fan I root for greatness and Pujols is certainly that.

I think Sam's broader point about the dangers of long term contracts (or maybe that wasn't his broader point but that's what I took from it) is a great one. The list of the longest contracts in baseball history is a list that holds many of the very worst contracts in baseball history. I think we underestimate the dangers inherent in signing someone for a decade or thereabouts. Even if they are a sure thing like Albert Pujols.

Apr 24, 2012 08:30 AM
 
Ian Miller

"as a baseball fan I root for greatness"

ofttimes I wish I could +1 a staff post; this be one of them.

Apr 24, 2012 09:13 AM
rating: 9
 
ofMontreal

I was thinking the same thing about the wrist injury. Has Pujols'' check-swing rate diminished? Must he swing when he decides? Surely the league knows so if he does, which will change the pitches he sees.

Apr 24, 2012 09:54 AM
rating: 0
 
mdthomp

I have no data to back this up, but as a fan I watched most of his games, and I rarely recall him ever being able to successfully check his swing. So I don't think that should be a big issue. But like I said, I don't have any stats to back that up.

Apr 24, 2012 10:00 AM
rating: 0
 
Tarakas

Very nice piece.

As a Cardinals fan, I have felt Albert has been declining for a couple of years. As a baserunner. As a fielder. And as a hitter, all of his numbers have been in decline--batting average, doubles, home runs. Last year he had by far the fewest doubles he ever hit in any season in his career. And he looks like he is putting on weight.

Note, he was still awesome. But less awesome all of the time.

Hitters are always adjusting, and as they age they need to adjust more. I spent a couple of years over on Viva el Birdos arguing that the fans should want Pujols to move on when his contract ran out--he was going to get a contract so big, that it would never work out well. Players comparable to Pujols did not remain consistently productive superstars. After age 31, many never reached the level they were at from age 26-30 ever again. At best, they reached it 1-2 times.

That contract is going to end very badly. It makes me sad. He may well end up a very expensive albatross, dragging down his team for a period of years. A sad end for a great player.

Apr 24, 2012 08:58 AM
rating: 4
 
Matt Commins

As an A's fan I'm glad the Angels were dumb enough to give him a ten year deal.

Sam, you should follow up on these trends at the end of year because it was shocking to learn Pujouls had the same walk total as Francouer in the 2nd half of the year.

Apr 24, 2012 09:18 AM
rating: 1
 
salvomania
(449)

Tarakas, you sound like you're just about ready to toss the first shovelful of dirt.

Apr 24, 2012 09:20 AM
rating: 1
 
Tarakas

No. But I think we underestimate how players age. Many people say "Well, the back end of the contract will be bad, but he'll still be pretty much the same player for the first half."

I did a simply study of he 10 players most similar to Albert, using BP's similarity scores. I found that the players' average WARP for the age 32 to 35 seasons was 60% of their average WARP for their age 27-30 seasons.





Apr 24, 2012 09:34 AM
rating: 5
 
mdthomp

Wow, that should be pretty alarming. Who knows though, there are several variables. I for one think he's pressing. Trying to show people he's worth the money, just like last year when he was trying to show people he should get a big contract.

I'm a Cardinals fan, and it sucked when he left. But ten years is really an awful deal for the Angels. And I think by the end of it, Albert will be looked at as a burden to his team, which will be a sad end to the career of the greatest right handed hitter of our generation.

With the LA media it won't be pretty when all of that is going down.

Apr 24, 2012 09:58 AM
rating: 2
 
Richard Bergstrom

I'll just argue small sample size. He's been such a good hitter for so long that he'll figure out AL pitchers soon enough. People thought he was done last year and he had another slump a few years back and still turned out ok. Even then, he still contributes with his glove and an "old" Pujols is still better than pretty much any other first baseman. On that note, look at the NL. The only "star" first baseman left is Votto. Everyone else is a rookie or a wild card in one way or another.

Apr 24, 2012 10:12 AM
rating: 0
 
monkey

I think one of the reasons this season is so alarming is because it is coming after his worst season as a pro, and people were already discussing his declining numbers last year. The start to this year is just adding fuel to that fire, even if it is a microscopic sample. Any 10 year contract for a 30 year old is going to look awful near the end, but it has to add some additional worry if he can't provide as much value at the beginning as the Angels thought he could.

As an A's fan, I don't have to worry about my team dealing out 10 year, 250 million dollar contracts any time soon/ever

Apr 24, 2012 17:04 PM
rating: 0
 
krissbeth

File the Pujols deal with the Mauer deal. A lot of people around here were in favor of Mauer's contract too, wish-casting that his one season with home run power would be the norm, not the exception, and believing he'd catch forever or be a championship-quality first baseman, who need a higher slugging % than mid-.400s. I'm sure Mauer's deal helps with local relations, but that contract's going to range from disappointing to disastrous in its results for that team.

It's the winner's curse in auction bidding.

Apr 24, 2012 10:29 AM
rating: 1
 
ScottyB

Pujols in 4 years = Arod now????

Apr 24, 2012 10:46 AM
rating: 0
 
pobothecat

Please excuse what's probably a stupid question --- but I can't find this "percentage of pitches swung at" statistic. Can anyone direct me? Thanks.

Apr 24, 2012 11:15 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Sam Miller
BP staff

If you go to our stats page, we have up through 2011 under 'batter plate discipline'

Apr 24, 2012 11:19 AM
 
pobothecat

thanks sam

Apr 25, 2012 21:27 PM
rating: 0
 
Klochner

Any chance his bat speed is slowing a bit? Maybe leading him just to guess fastball in fastball counts and start the swing a little earlier?

Apr 24, 2012 11:59 AM
rating: 0
 
johnsamo

With a few exceptions, Lou Gehrig and Will Mays being the most prominent, age regression for position players hits at around age 32 and it's rarely a slow gradual decline. Even if Pujols were to regress well, it doesn't justify the 1/4 billion price tag the Angels paid in order to witness it first hand. 10 years is a LONG time.

Apr 24, 2012 12:07 PM
rating: 0
 
dkarpis

And it's not a bad bet to figure that Albert is 2 or 3 years older than he says he is so . . . regression

Apr 24, 2012 15:57 PM
rating: 1
 
pobothecat

Interesting thought. If true, I wonder if that'd be grounds enough for the Angels to do a breach of contract thing, should it ever come to that.

Apr 25, 2012 21:26 PM
rating: 0
 
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