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May 3, 2002

Prospectus Feature

Aim for the Head: Dropping the Worst Starts

by Keith Woolner

One common defense you hear of a pitcher--usually one of the speaker's favorites--whose season statistics don't quite measure up is something like: "Yeah, but if you take away the two starts when he got pounded and the manager left him in, his ERA is really good!"

There's some merit to the argument that a few starts can skew a pitcher's cumulative line, and there have been attempts, such as Michael Wolverton's Support-Neutral statistics to better model the maximum impact a single game can have on a pitcher's value.

Separate from these more sophisticated analyses lies a more fundamental problem: taking away X starts from a single pitcher, without doing so for every pitcher, will overrate the pitcher in question by giving him a benefit the others do not have. If we really want to go down this path of eliminating disastrous starts, we should give every starting pitcher the same benefit.

I looked at all pitchers from 2001 who had at least 100 total innings pitched in games started. I arbitrarily selected the three worst starts as the number we would drop from season totals. Then, I compared the rankings and values from the whole season to the trimmed season to see who was most affected. Pitchers who started for more than one team have their tenure with each team measured separately, and are not combined.

I looked at two measures, one of which was simply Run Average (RA, which is Runs Allowed/Innings Pitched * 9). The other is a simplified version of VORP, or Runs above Replacement Level, which I call Value for this article and define as IP/9* (6.00 - R/IP*9). Note that RA and Value are not park-adjusted for this comparison, nor are we strictly comparing to a measured (or modeled) replacement level, but instead using a 6.00 RA as replacement level. My intent was to identify the pitchers who are helped/hurt the most by excluding three starts, rather than to accurately model the value of the top N-3 starts in a pitcher's season.

Top/Bottom 20 Pitchers by Value Lost by Trimming Three Starts:

  Full Season Worst 3 starts removed Difference between Full and Worst 3 removed
NAME TEAM VALUE RA IP Value
Rank
RA
Rank
VALUE RA IP Value
Rank
RA
Rank
IP R RA of
removed
VALUE Season
RA Change
Value
Rank
RA
Rank
Scott Schoeneweis ANA 14.89 5.35 205.3 78 87 36.67 4.32 196 58 81 9.3 28 27.10 -21.78 1.03 20 6
Jimmy Anderson PIT 14.56 5.37 206.3 81 88 36.11 4.35 196.7 61 84 9.6 28 26.25 -21.56 1.02 20 4
Chuck Finley CLE -2.22 6.17 113.7 107 108 18.11 4.51 109.7 102 91 4 23 51.75 -20.33 1.66 5 17
Matt Morris STL 58.22 3.58 216.3 12 14 77.56 2.62 206.3 5 7 10 26 23.40 -19.33 0.96 7 7
Brian Anderson ARI -7.56 6.55 123.7 118 118 11.56 5.06 110.3 111 106 13.4 28 18.81 -19.11 1.49 7 12
Mike Hampton COL -2.67 6.12 203 108 106 16.44 5.23 192.7 104 113 10.3 26 22.72 -19.11 0.89 4 -7
Ryan Rupe TB -4.56 6.29 141.7 112 110 14.33 4.99 128 106 105 13.7 28 18.39 -18.89 1.30 6 5
Jamey Wright MIL 14.78 5.32 194.7 79 86 33.56 4.32 179.3 66 83 15.4 29 16.95 -18.78 1.00 13 3
Bobby J. Jones SD -7.00 6.32 195 117 112 11.67 5.44 187 110 118 8 24 27.00 -18.67 0.88 7 -6
Dave Burba CLE -16.22 7.06 137.7 122 121 2.33 5.84 131 121 121 6.7 23 30.90 -18.56 1.22 1 0
Willis Roberts BAL 3.22 5.72 102.3 100 100 21.22 3.89 90.3 94 56 12 26 19.50 -18.00 1.83 6 44
Kevin Tapani CHC 19.22 4.97 168.3 68 72 36.78 3.91 158.7 57 59 9.6 24 22.50 -17.56 1.06 11 13
Kenny Rogers TEX -7.56 6.56 120.7 118 119 10.00 5.19 111 114 112 9.7 24 22.27 -17.56 1.37 4 7
Ryan Dempster FLA 17.89 5.24 211.3 72 82 35.44 4.42 201.7 64 89 9.6 24 22.50 -17.56 0.82 8 -7
Shawn Chacon COL 10.67 5.40 160 89 90 28.11 4.30 148.7 74 80 11.3 25 19.91 -17.44 1.10 15 10
Steve Trachsel NYM 26.78 4.61 173.7 52 50 44.11 3.57 163.7 41 38 10 24 21.60 -17.33 1.04 11 12
Todd Ritchie PIT 20.22 5.12 207.3 65 80 37.00 4.29 195 56 79 12.3 25 18.29 -16.78 0.83 9 1
Darren Oliver TEX -6.33 6.37 154 115 114 10.33 5.32 137 113 116 17 28 14.82 -16.67 1.05 2 -2
Julian Tavarez CHC 12.67 5.26 154 82 83 29.22 4.22 147.3 73 76 6.7 21 28.21 -16.56 1.04 9 7
Denny Neagle COL 6.78 5.64 170.7 98 98 23.22 4.66 156.3 89 97 14.4 26 16.25 -16.44 0.98 9 1
...
Rick Reed NYM 36.78 3.54 134.7 36 13 45.22 2.70 123.3 39 9 11.4 16 12.63 -8.44 0.84 -3 4
John Burkett ATL 63.22 3.41 219.3 8 11 71.44 2.86 204.7 11 12 14.6 18 11.10 -8.22 0.55 -3 -1
Darryl Kile STL 68.56 3.29 227.3 6 7 76.78 2.70 209.7 6 10 17.6 20 10.23 -8.22 0.58 0 -3
Freddy Garcia SEA 71.11 3.32 238.7 3 8 79.11 2.86 226.7 4 13 12 16 12.00 -8.00 0.46 -1 -5
Jeff Suppan KC 25.56 4.95 218.3 56 69 33.56 4.52 203.3 66 92 15 18 10.80 -8.00 0.43 -10 -23
Randy Johnson ARI 87.78 2.74 242.7 1 2 95.56 2.17 224.3 1 3 18.4 20 9.78 -7.78 0.58 0 -1
Tom Glavine ATL 54.22 3.78 219.3 17 22 61.89 3.29 205.3 19 29 14 17 10.93 -7.67 0.49 -2 -7
Curt Schilling ARI 85.11 3.02 256.7 2 3 92.78 2.52 239.7 2 6 17 19 10.06 -7.67 0.50 0 -3
Josh Towers BAL 18.78 4.72 131.7 70 57 26.22 3.94 114.3 78 61 17.4 19 9.83 -7.44 0.78 -8 -4
Joe Mays MIN 68.78 3.35 233.7 5 10 75.56 2.93 221.3 8 17 12.4 15 10.89 -6.78 0.42 -3 -7
David Wells CHW 12.11 4.92 100.7 84 68 18.56 4.00 83.3 101 66 17.4 18 9.31 -6.44 0.92 -17 2
Adam Eaton SD 16.78 4.70 116.7 73 56 23.22 3.90 99.3 89 58 17.4 18 9.31 -6.44 0.81 -16 -2
Greg Maddux ATL 69.33 3.32 233 4 9 75.56 2.84 215.3 8 11 17.7 18 9.15 -6.22 0.48 -4 -2
Terry Adams LA 24.89 4.36 136.3 58 40 31.00 3.68 120 70 44 16.3 17 9.39 -6.11 0.68 -12 -4
Kevin Brown LA 35.22 3.23 114.3 38 6 41.22 2.27 99.3 46 4 15 16 9.60 -6.00 0.96 -8 2
Dave Williams PIT 19.33 4.33 104 67 39 23.78 3.61 89.7 86 41 14.3 14 8.81 -4.44 0.71 -19 -2
Roger Clemens NYY 52.89 3.84 220.3 18 24 57.00 3.49 204 24 33 16.3 15 8.28 -4.11 0.35 -6 -9
Brian Tollberg SD 20.22 4.45 117.3 65 45 24.00 3.88 102 84 54 15.3 14 8.24 -3.78 0.57 -19 -9
Pedro Martinez BOS 44.78 2.54 116.7 26 1 47.33 1.65 98 36 1 18.7 15 7.22 -2.56 0.89 -10 0
Roy Halladay TOR 33.67 3.06 103 39 4 35.33 2.30 86 65 5 17 13 6.88 -1.67 0.76 -26 -1

Pitchers who completely bombed in three starts are helped most by this method. Scott Schoeneweis got blasted for 28 runs in 9 1/3 innings in his worst three starts, dropping his season's value by almost 22 runs. Overall his rank in value would go from #78 to #58 just by dropping every pitcher's three worst starts. Jimmy Anderson is similarly affected. There are some good pitchers on the list, too. Matt Morris jumps into the top ten if we disregard three starts.

Pitchers who are very consistent are penalized by this method, since their worst starts aren't too far behind their average starts. Roy Halladay's worst three starts were barely below replacement level, and so he gains less than two runs by removing them. His rank in Value drops 26 points as flakier pitchers pass him. Again there's a mix of great pitchers (Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Greg Maddux) and mediocre pitchers (David Wells, Jeff Suppan, Dave Williams, Brian Tollberg) in the list. Consistency, by itself, doesn't mean quality--you can be consistently good or consistently bad.

Top/Bottom 20 Pitchers by RA Decline by Trimming Three Starts

  Full Season Worst 3 starts removed Difference between Full and Worst 3 removed
NAME TEAM VALUE RA IP Value
Rank
RA
Rank
VALUE RA IP Value
Rank
RA
Rank
IP R RA of
removed
VALUE Season
RA Change
Value
Rank
RA
Rank
Willis Roberts BAL 3.22 5.72 102.3 100 100 21.22 3.89 90.3 94 56 12 26 19.50 -18.00 1.83 6 44
Chuck Finley CLE -2.22 6.17 113.7 107 108 18.11 4.51 109.7 102 91 4 23 51.75 -20.33 1.66 5 17
Brian Anderson ARI -7.56 6.55 123.7 118 118 11.56 5.06 110.3 111 106 13.4 28 18.81 -19.11 1.49 7 12
Rob Bell TEX -16.78 7.44 105.3 123 123 -0.44 6.05 89.3 122 122 16 27 15.19 -16.33 1.39 1 1
Dan Reichert KC -1.89 6.15 109.7 106 107 13.67 4.77 100 108 101 9.7 22 20.41 -15.56 1.38 -2 6
Kenny Rogers TEX -7.56 6.56 120.7 118 119 10.00 5.19 111 114 112 9.7 24 22.27 -17.56 1.37 4 7
Ted Lilly NYY -4.67 6.40 104 113 115 9.89 5.09 97.3 115 108 6.7 19 25.52 -14.56 1.32 -2 7
Ryan Rupe TB -4.56 6.29 141.7 112 110 14.33 4.99 128 106 105 13.7 28 18.39 -18.89 1.30 6 5
Lance Davis CIN 10.89 5.08 106.3 87 78 24.00 3.82 99 84 50 7.3 18 22.19 -13.11 1.26 3 28
Kip Wells CHW -0.22 6.02 104.7 104 104 13.00 4.78 96 109 102 8.7 19 19.66 -13.22 1.24 -5 2
Albie Lopez TB -3.89 6.28 124.7 109 109 11.56 5.06 110.3 111 106 14.4 25 15.63 -15.44 1.22 -2 3
Dave Burba CLE -16.22 7.06 137.7 122 121 2.33 5.84 131 121 121 6.7 23 30.90 -18.56 1.22 1 0
Rocky Biddle CHW -4.22 6.33 113.7 110 113 9.89 5.14 103.3 115 111 10.4 21 18.17 -14.11 1.19 -5 2
Paul Wilson TB 1.78 5.88 131.7 102 102 17.78 4.69 122.7 103 99 9 22 22.00 -16.00 1.18 -1 3
Steve Parris TOR 10.44 5.11 105.7 90 79 21.44 3.94 93.7 92 62 12 19 14.25 -11.00 1.17 -2 17
Allen Levrault MIL -5.44 6.47 104.3 114 116 7.22 5.31 93.3 118 115 11 20 16.36 -12.67 1.17 -4 1
Jose Lima DET 9.11 5.27 112.7 94 84 21.67 4.11 103 91 72 9.7 19 17.63 -12.56 1.16 3 12
Pedro Astacio COL 3.00 5.81 141 101 101 19.44 4.65 129.7 100 96 11.3 24 19.12 -16.44 1.16 1 5
Shawn Chacon COL 10.67 5.40 160 89 90 28.11 4.30 148.7 74 80 11.3 25 19.91 -17.44 1.10 15 10
Joe Kennedy TB 15.44 4.82 117.7 76 61 26.33 3.72 104 77 46 13.7 20 13.14 -10.89 1.10 -1 15
...
Eric Milton MIN 39.33 4.38 218 34 41 50.78 3.79 206.7 31 49 11.3 19 15.13 -11.44 0.59 3 -8
Darryl Kile STL 68.56 3.29 227.3 6 7 76.78 2.70 209.7 6 10 17.6 20 10.23 -8.22 0.58 0 -3
Livan Hernandez SF 8.11 5.68 226.7 96 99 21.44 5.10 213.7 92 110 13 22 15.23 -13.33 0.58 4 -11
Tim Hudson OAK 56.67 3.83 235 14 23 68.56 3.25 224.3 13 26 10.7 19 15.98 -11.89 0.58 1 -3
Jarrod Washburn ANA 39.89 4.14 193.3 33 34 49.11 3.57 181.7 34 36 11.6 17 13.19 -9.22 0.58 -1 -2
Randy Johnson ARI 87.78 2.74 242.7 1 2 95.56 2.17 224.3 1 3 18.4 20 9.78 -7.78 0.58 0 -1
Doug Davis TEX 21.00 4.98 186 64 74 30.56 4.41 173.3 72 88 12.7 18 12.76 -9.56 0.57 -8 -14
Brian Tollberg SD 20.22 4.45 117.3 65 45 24.00 3.88 102 84 54 15.3 14 8.24 -3.78 0.57 -19 -9
Ramon Ortiz ANA 26.11 4.87 208.7 55 65 36.67 4.32 196 58 81 12.7 19 13.46 -10.56 0.56 -3 -16
John Burkett ATL 63.22 3.41 219.3 8 11 71.44 2.86 204.7 11 12 14.6 18 11.10 -8.22 0.55 -3 -1
Jon Lieber CHC 50.89 4.03 232.3 19 31 60.00 3.50 216 21 34 16.3 20 11.04 -9.11 0.53 -2 -3
Aaron Sele SEA 49.00 3.93 213 22 29 58.78 3.40 203.7 22 31 9.3 16 15.48 -9.78 0.53 0 -2
Brad Radke MIN 45.67 4.18 226 25 35 56.22 3.66 216.3 27 43 9.7 17 15.77 -10.56 0.52 -2 -8
Curt Schilling ARI 85.11 3.02 256.7 2 3 92.78 2.52 239.7 2 6 17 19 10.06 -7.67 0.50 0 -3
Tom Glavine ATL 54.22 3.78 219.3 17 22 61.89 3.29 205.3 19 29 14 17 10.93 -7.67 0.49 -2 -7
Greg Maddux ATL 69.33 3.32 233 4 9 75.56 2.84 215.3 8 11 17.7 18 9.15 -6.22 0.48 -4 -2
Freddy Garcia SEA 71.11 3.32 238.7 3 8 79.11 2.86 226.7 4 13 12 16 12.00 -8.00 0.46 -1 -5
Jeff Suppan KC 25.56 4.95 218.3 56 69 33.56 4.52 203.3 66 92 15 18 10.80 -8.00 0.43 -10 -23
Joe Mays MIN 68.78 3.35 233.7 5 10 75.56 2.93 221.3 8 17 12.4 15 10.89 -6.78 0.42 -3 -7
Roger Clemens NYY 52.89 3.84 220.3 18 24 57.00 3.49 204 24 33 16.3 15 8.28 -4.11 0.35 -6 -9

This table shows the pitchers whose RA were most and least improved, rather than total value. Usually, these will be pitchers with relatively few numbers of innings, or who pitched deep in their worst starts. None of the pitchers on the most-affected list pitched more than 160 innings, while only three on the least-affected list pitched fewer than 200.

Willis Roberts benefits the most, with his RA dropping 1.83 runs from 5.72 to 3.89 when remove three starts. Chuck Finley is the only other pitcher who benefits by more than 1.5 runs. Not surprisingly, all of those most-improved pitchers had poor RA to begin with--only Joe Kennedy started with an RA below 5.00. It's interesting to note that Rob Bell, even with his three worst starts removed, only moves up to replacement level. Roberts and Lance Davis were the biggest beneficiaries in ranking, moving up 44 and 28 spots, respectively.

The pitchers least affected by removing three starts have mostly high innings-pitched totals, such that trimming 15 or so innings doesn't make a huge difference. They also tend to be better, more consistent pitchers. Roger Clemens was the model of consistency, with his RA only falling a third of a run when his worst starts are removed. Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Freddy Garcia, Joe Mays, and Jeff Suppan (one of these names is not like the others) also saw a drop of half a run or less. Suppan took the biggest hit in ranking, falling 23 spots from #69 to #92.

The message here is that removing an arbitrary number of starts can make a pitcher look better, but you need to give every pitcher the same benefit to see how much it really helps. Particularly flaky pitchers will improve the most; consistent pitchers the least. But after all this, isn't it easier to just look at Support-Neutral stats?

The table below shows all pitchers with 100 or more innings pitched in games started, with their worst three starts removed.

  Full Season Worst 3 starts removed Difference between Full and Worst 3 removed
NAME TEAM VALUE RA IP Value
Rank
RA
Rank
VALUE RA IP Value
Rank
RA
Rank
IP R RA of
removed
VALUE Season
RA Change
Value
Rank
RA
Rank
A.J. Burnett FLA 33.56 4.26 173.3 42 36 46.67 3.42 163 38 32 10.3 20 17.48 -13.11 0.84 4 4
Adam Eaton SD 16.78 4.70 116.7 73 56 23.22 3.90 99.3 89 58 17.4 18 9.31 -6.44 0.81 -16 -2
Al Leiter NYM 43.89 3.89 187.3 28 28 58.67 2.98 175 23 20 12.3 23 16.83 -14.78 0.91 5 8
Allen Levrault MIL -5.44 6.47 104.3 114 116 7.22 5.31 93.3 118 115 11 20 16.36 -12.67 1.17 -4 1
Albie Lopez TB -3.89 6.28 124.7 109 109 11.56 5.06 110.3 111 106 14.4 25 15.63 -15.44 1.22 -2 3
Andy Pettitte NYY 30.78 4.62 200.7 45 51 43.89 3.89 187.3 42 57 13.4 22 14.78 -13.11 0.73 3 -6
Aaron Sele SEA 49.00 3.93 213 22 29 58.78 3.40 203.7 22 31 9.3 16 15.48 -9.78 0.53 0 -2
Bartolo Colon CLE 42.22 4.29 222.3 30 38 57.00 3.59 213 24 39 9.3 21 20.32 -14.78 0.70 6 -1
Bobby J. Jones SD -7.00 6.32 195 117 112 11.67 5.44 187 110 118 8 24 27.00 -18.67 0.88 7 -6
Brad Penny FLA 44.67 4.04 205 27 32 55.11 3.36 187.7 30 30 17.3 22 11.45 -10.44 0.68 -3 2
Brad Radke MIN 45.67 4.18 226 25 35 56.22 3.66 216.3 27 43 9.7 17 15.77 -10.56 0.52 -2 -8
Bryan Rekar TB -10.22 6.65 140.7 120 120 4.33 5.70 128 120 120 12.7 23 16.30 -14.56 0.96 0 0
Brian Anderson ARI -7.56 6.55 123.7 118 118 11.56 5.06 110.3 111 106 13.4 28 18.81 -19.11 1.49 7 12
Ben Sheets MIL 11.89 5.29 151.3 85 85 27.22 4.23 138.3 75 77 13 24 16.62 -15.33 1.06 10 8
Brian Tollberg SD 20.22 4.45 117.3 65 45 24.00 3.88 102 84 54 15.3 14 8.24 -3.78 0.57 -19 -9
Barry Zito OAK 50.89 3.86 214.3 19 26 62.56 3.23 203.3 17 25 11 19 15.55 -11.67 0.63 2 1
Chris Carpenter TOR 31.78 4.67 215.7 43 54 47.22 3.92 204.3 37 60 11.4 23 18.16 -15.44 0.75 6 -6
Chad Durbin KC 10.33 5.48 179 91 94 24.22 4.71 168.3 83 100 10.7 21 17.66 -13.89 0.77 8 -6
Chuck Finley CLE -2.22 6.17 113.7 107 108 18.11 4.51 109.7 102 91 4 23 51.75 -20.33 1.66 5 17
Chris Holt DET -4.33 6.31 127 111 111 8.33 5.35 116 117 117 11 20 16.36 -12.67 0.95 -6 -6
Cory Lidle OAK 41.33 4.02 188 31 30 55.22 3.20 177.3 29 24 10.7 21 17.66 -13.89 0.82 2 6
Chan Ho Park LA 62.00 3.62 234 9 18 76.67 2.91 223 7 15 11 22 18.00 -14.67 0.71 2 3
Chris Reitsma CIN 0.33 5.98 173 103 103 16.44 5.09 162.7 104 109 10.3 23 20.10 -16.11 0.89 -1 -6
C.C. Sabathia CLE 27.22 4.64 180.3 49 53 41.22 3.84 171.3 46 51 9 20 20.00 -14.00 0.81 3 2
Curt Schilling ARI 85.11 3.02 256.7 2 3 92.78 2.52 239.7 2 6 17 19 10.06 -7.67 0.50 0 -3
Dave Burba CLE -16.22 7.06 137.7 122 121 2.33 5.84 131 121 121 6.7 23 30.90 -18.56 1.22 1 0
David Cone BOS 16.44 4.91 135.7 74 66 26.22 4.09 123.3 78 71 12.4 18 13.06 -9.78 0.82 -4 -5
Doug Davis TEX 21.00 4.98 186 64 74 30.56 4.41 173.3 72 88 12.7 18 12.76 -9.56 0.57 -8 -14
Dustin Hermanson STL 22.22 4.96 192.3 60 71 38.00 4.13 183 54 75 9.3 22 21.29 -15.78 0.83 6 -4
Darryl Kile STL 68.56 3.29 227.3 6 7 76.78 2.70 209.7 6 10 17.6 20 10.23 -8.22 0.58 0 -3
Denny Neagle COL 6.78 5.64 170.7 98 98 23.22 4.66 156.3 89 97 14.4 26 16.25 -16.44 0.98 9 1
Darren Oliver TEX -6.33 6.37 154 115 114 10.33 5.32 137 113 116 17 28 14.82 -16.67 1.05 2 -2
Dan Reichert KC -1.89 6.15 109.7 106 107 13.67 4.77 100 108 101 9.7 22 20.41 -15.56 1.38 -2 6
David Wells CHW 12.11 4.92 100.7 84 68 18.56 4.00 83.3 101 66 17.4 18 9.31 -6.44 0.92 -17 2
Dave Williams PIT 19.33 4.33 104 67 39 23.78 3.61 89.7 86 41 14.3 14 8.81 -4.44 0.71 -19 -2
Elmer Dessens CIN 33.67 4.52 205 39 48 44.56 3.84 185.3 40 52 19.7 24 10.96 -10.89 0.68 -1 -4
Eric Gagne LA 6.56 5.57 137.3 99 96 20.44 4.55 126.7 96 93 10.6 21 17.83 -13.89 1.03 3 3
Esteban Loaiza TOR 12.44 5.38 180.7 83 89 25.78 4.64 170.7 80 95 10 20 18.00 -13.33 0.74 3 -6
Eric Milton MIN 39.33 4.38 218 34 41 50.78 3.79 206.7 31 49 11.3 19 15.13 -11.44 0.59 3 -8
Frank Castillo BOS 19.11 4.74 136.7 69 59 31.67 3.76 127 69 48 9.7 19 17.63 -12.56 0.98 0 11
Freddy Garcia SEA 71.11 3.32 238.7 3 8 79.11 2.86 226.7 4 13 12 16 12.00 -8.00 0.46 -1 -5
Greg Maddux ATL 69.33 3.32 233 4 9 75.56 2.84 215.3 8 11 17.7 18 9.15 -6.22 0.48 -4 -2
Glendon Rusch NYM 18.33 5.08 179 71 77 30.78 4.38 170.7 71 85 8.3 18 19.52 -12.44 0.70 0 -8
Hideo Nomo BOS 27.00 4.77 198 51 60 39.56 4.11 188.3 53 73 9.7 19 17.63 -12.56 0.66 -2 -13
Ismael Valdes ANA 27.11 4.51 163.7 50 47 40.56 3.60 152.3 51 40 11.4 21 16.58 -13.44 0.90 -1 7
Jason Johnson BAL 21.67 5.01 196 63 76 32.33 4.40 182 68 87 14 20 12.86 -10.67 0.60 -5 -11
Jamey Wright MIL 14.78 5.32 194.7 79 86 33.56 4.32 179.3 66 83 15.4 29 16.95 -18.78 1.00 13 3
Jimmy Anderson PIT 14.56 5.37 206.3 81 88 36.11 4.35 196.7 61 84 9.6 28 26.25 -21.56 1.02 20 4
Jason Bere CHC 26.33 4.74 188 54 58 42.44 3.88 180.7 45 55 7.3 21 25.89 -16.11 0.85 9 3
John Burkett ATL 63.22 3.41 219.3 8 11 71.44 2.86 204.7 11 12 14.6 18 11.10 -8.22 0.55 -3 -1
Joey Hamilton TOR -6.44 6.48 122.3 116 117 6.56 5.47 110.3 119 119 12 21 15.75 -13.00 1.01 -3 -2
Jimmy Haynes MIL 21.89 4.84 169.3 61 62 36.22 3.95 159.3 60 64 10 21 18.90 -14.33 0.88 1 -2
Joe Kennedy TB 15.44 4.82 117.7 76 61 26.33 3.72 104 77 46 13.7 20 13.14 -10.89 1.10 -1 15
Jon Lieber CHC 50.89 4.03 232.3 19 31 60.00 3.50 216 21 34 16.3 20 11.04 -9.11 0.53 -2 -3
Jose Lima DET 9.11 5.27 112.7 94 84 21.67 4.11 103 91 72 9.7 19 17.63 -12.56 1.16 3 12
Joe Mays MIN 68.78 3.35 233.7 5 10 75.56 2.93 221.3 8 17 12.4 15 10.89 -6.78 0.42 -3 -7
Jose Mercedes BAL -0.44 6.02 182.3 105 105 14.11 5.26 172.7 107 114 9.6 21 19.69 -14.56 0.76 -2 -9
Jamie Moyer SEA 55.78 3.61 209.7 15 15 66.78 2.91 194.7 15 16 15 21 12.60 -11.00 0.69 0 -1
Jeff Suppan KC 25.56 4.95 218.3 56 69 33.56 4.52 203.3 66 92 15 18 10.80 -8.00 0.43 -10 -23
Julian Tavarez CHC 12.67 5.26 154 82 83 29.22 4.22 147.3 73 76 6.7 21 28.21 -16.56 1.04 9 7
Josh Towers BAL 18.78 4.72 131.7 70 57 26.22 3.94 114.3 78 61 17.4 19 9.83 -7.44 0.78 -8 -4
Javier Vazquez MON 57.11 3.70 223.7 13 20 70.67 2.94 208 12 18 15.7 24 13.76 -13.56 0.76 1 2
Jarrod Washburn ANA 39.89 4.14 193.3 33 34 49.11 3.57 181.7 34 36 11.6 17 13.19 -9.22 0.58 -1 -2
Jeff Weaver DET 36.89 4.55 229.3 35 49 48.56 3.94 212.3 35 63 17 23 12.18 -11.67 0.61 0 -14
Kevin Appier NYM 48.78 3.88 206.7 23 27 60.44 3.26 198.7 20 28 8 17 19.13 -11.67 0.61 3 -1
Kevin Brown LA 35.22 3.23 114.3 38 6 41.22 2.27 99.3 46 4 15 16 9.60 -6.00 0.96 -8 2
Kevin Jarvis SD 21.89 4.98 193.3 61 73 35.56 4.25 182.3 63 78 11 21 17.18 -13.67 0.74 -2 -5
Kevin Millwood ATL 14.67 4.91 121 80 67 23.78 4.07 110.7 86 70 10.3 16 13.98 -9.11 0.84 -6 -3
Kenny Rogers TEX -7.56 6.56 120.7 118 119 10.00 5.19 111 114 112 9.7 24 22.27 -17.56 1.37 4 7
Kirk Rueter SF 25.22 4.84 195.3 57 63 40.56 4.03 185.3 51 69 10 22 19.80 -15.33 0.81 6 -6
Kevin Tapani CHC 19.22 4.97 168.3 68 72 36.78 3.91 158.7 57 59 9.6 24 22.50 -17.56 1.06 11 13
Kip Wells CHW -0.22 6.02 104.7 104 104 13.00 4.78 96 109 102 8.7 19 19.66 -13.22 1.24 -5 2
Kerry Wood CHC 46.22 3.61 174.3 24 17 55.56 2.90 161.3 28 14 13 18 12.46 -9.33 0.71 -4 3
Lance Davis CIN 10.89 5.08 106.3 87 78 24.00 3.82 99 84 50 7.3 18 22.19 -13.11 1.26 3 28
Livan Hernandez SF 8.11 5.68 226.7 96 99 21.44 5.10 213.7 92 110 13 22 15.23 -13.33 0.58 4 -11
Luke Prokopec LA 15.11 4.96 130.7 77 70 25.78 4.01 116.7 80 67 14 20 12.86 -10.67 0.95 -3 3
Mark Buehrle CHW 58.56 3.62 221.3 11 19 68.33 3.01 206 14 21 15.3 20 11.76 -9.78 0.60 -3 -2
Matt Clement FLA 10.89 5.42 169.3 87 92 21.00 4.79 156 95 103 13.3 19 12.86 -10.11 0.63 -8 -11
Mike Hampton COL -2.67 6.12 203 108 106 16.44 5.23 192.7 104 113 10.3 26 22.72 -19.11 0.89 4 -7
Matt Morris STL 58.22 3.58 216.3 12 14 77.56 2.62 206.3 5 7 10 26 23.40 -19.33 0.96 7 7
Mark Mulder OAK 60.89 3.61 229.3 10 16 73.22 2.95 216.3 10 19 13 21 14.54 -12.33 0.66 0 -3
Mike Mussina NYY 65.44 3.42 228.7 7 12 80.78 2.67 218.7 3 8 10 22 19.80 -15.33 0.75 4 4
Mike Thurman MON 7.11 5.56 145.7 97 95 19.78 4.68 134.7 99 98 11 20 16.36 -12.67 0.88 -2 -3
Omar Daal PHI 23.78 4.85 185.7 59 64 35.89 4.13 172.3 62 74 13.4 21 14.10 -12.11 0.72 -3 -10
Paul Abbott SEA 28.33 4.42 161 47 43 37.22 3.73 147.3 55 47 13.7 18 11.82 -8.89 0.69 -8 -4
Pedro Astacio COL 3.00 5.81 141 101 101 19.44 4.65 129.7 100 96 11.3 24 19.12 -16.44 1.16 1 5
Paul Wilson TB 1.78 5.88 131.7 102 102 17.78 4.69 122.7 103 99 9 22 22.00 -16.00 1.18 -1 3
Pedro Martinez BOS 44.78 2.54 116.7 26 1 47.33 1.65 98 36 1 18.7 15 7.22 -2.56 0.89 -10 0
Pat Rapp ANA 16.00 5.13 165 75 81 26.78 4.42 152.7 76 90 12.3 19 13.90 -10.78 0.71 -1 -9
Randy Johnson ARI 87.78 2.74 242.7 1 2 95.56 2.17 224.3 1 3 18.4 20 9.78 -7.78 0.58 0 -1
Ramon Ortiz ANA 26.11 4.87 208.7 55 65 36.67 4.32 196 58 81 12.7 19 13.46 -10.56 0.56 -3 -16
Rob Bell TEX -16.78 7.44 105.3 123 123 -0.44 6.05 89.3 122 122 16 27 15.19 -16.33 1.39 1 1
Rocky Biddle CHW -4.22 6.33 113.7 110 113 9.89 5.14 103.3 115 111 10.4 21 18.17 -14.11 1.19 -5 2
Roger Clemens NYY 52.89 3.84 220.3 18 24 57.00 3.49 204 24 33 16.3 15 8.28 -4.11 0.35 -6 -9
Ryan Dempster FLA 17.89 5.24 211.3 72 82 35.44 4.42 201.7 64 89 9.6 24 22.50 -17.56 0.82 8 -7
Roy Halladay TOR 33.67 3.06 103 39 4 35.33 2.30 86 65 5 17 13 6.88 -1.67 0.76 -26 -1
Rick Helling TEX 9.78 5.59 215.7 92 97 24.67 4.92 205 82 104 10.7 22 18.50 -14.89 0.67 10 -7
Roy Oswalt HOU 41.11 3.10 127.7 32 5 49.67 2.11 115 33 2 12.7 17 12.05 -8.56 0.99 -1 3
Robert Person PHI 35.89 4.45 208.3 37 46 50.00 3.69 195 32 45 13.3 23 15.56 -14.11 0.76 5 1
Rick Reed NYM 36.78 3.54 134.7 36 13 45.22 2.70 123.3 39 9 11.4 16 12.63 -8.44 0.84 -3 4
Ryan Rupe TB -4.56 6.29 141.7 112 110 14.33 4.99 128 106 105 13.7 28 18.39 -18.89 1.30 6 5
Russ Ortiz SF 55.78 3.70 218.7 15 21 66.44 3.08 204.7 16 22 14 20 12.86 -10.67 0.63 -1 -1
Randy Wolf PHI 33.67 4.07 157 39 33 43.78 3.26 143.7 43 27 13.3 19 12.86 -10.11 0.81 -4 6
Shawn Chacon COL 10.67 5.40 160 89 90 28.11 4.30 148.7 74 80 11.3 25 19.91 -17.44 1.10 15 10
Scott Elarton HOU -14.89 7.22 109.7 121 122 -3.89 6.36 97.7 123 123 12 19 14.25 -11.00 0.86 -2 -1
Shawn Estes SF 28.00 4.42 159 48 42 40.89 3.57 151.3 49 37 7.7 18 21.04 -12.89 0.85 -1 5
Steve Parris TOR 10.44 5.11 105.7 90 79 21.44 3.94 93.7 92 62 12 19 14.25 -11.00 1.17 -2 17
Sidney Ponson BAL 9.22 5.40 138.3 93 91 20.22 4.56 126.3 98 94 12 19 14.25 -11.00 0.84 -5 -3
Shane Reynolds HOU 26.78 4.68 182.7 52 55 40.78 3.85 170.7 50 53 12 22 16.50 -14.00 0.83 2 2
Scott Schoeneweis ANA 14.89 5.35 205.3 78 87 36.67 4.32 196 58 81 9.3 28 27.10 -21.78 1.03 20 6
Steve Sparks DET 43.78 4.29 230.7 29 37 56.33 3.64 215 26 42 15.7 23 13.18 -12.56 0.65 3 -5
Steve Trachsel NYM 26.78 4.61 173.7 52 50 44.11 3.57 163.7 41 38 10 24 21.60 -17.33 1.04 11 12
Terry Adams LA 24.89 4.36 136.3 58 40 31.00 3.68 120 70 44 16.3 17 9.39 -6.11 0.68 -12 -4
Tony Armas Jr. MON 30.11 4.62 196.7 46 52 41.00 4.02 186 48 68 10.7 18 15.14 -10.89 0.61 -2 -16
Tom Glavine ATL 54.22 3.78 219.3 17 22 61.89 3.29 205.3 19 29 14 17 10.93 -7.67 0.49 -2 -7
Tim Hudson OAK 56.67 3.83 235 14 23 68.56 3.25 224.3 13 26 10.7 19 15.98 -11.89 0.58 1 -3
Ted Lilly NYY -4.67 6.40 104 113 115 9.89 5.09 97.3 115 108 6.7 19 25.52 -14.56 1.32 -2 7
Todd Ritchie PIT 20.22 5.12 207.3 65 80 37.00 4.29 195 56 79 12.3 25 18.29 -16.78 0.83 9 1
Tanyon Sturtze TB 31.00 4.42 177 44 44 43.78 3.56 161.7 43 35 15.3 23 13.53 -12.78 0.86 1 9
Tim Wakefield BOS 11.78 4.99 104.7 86 75 20.44 3.97 90.7 96 65 14 18 11.57 -8.67 1.02 -10 10
Wade Miller HOU 50.33 3.86 212 21 25 62.22 3.13 195.3 18 23 16.7 23 12.40 -11.89 0.73 3 2
Willis Roberts BAL 3.22 5.72 102.3 100 100 21.22 3.89 90.3 94 56 12 26 19.50 -18.00 1.83 6 44
Woody Williams SD 8.67 5.46 145 95 93 23.33 4.40 131 88 86 14 24 15.43 -14.67 1.07 7 7

 

Keith Woolner is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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