PAP Scores Revisited: Current Pitcher Abuse Points and commentary

Last month, in introducing a new method for evaluating the usage of starting
pitchers, I was hopeful that the concept of PAP would mark a small first step
towards a better understanding of the natural limits a pitching arm can take,
and that it might help to establish better guidelines for pitchers to avoid
disabling arm injuries.

After introducing it, PAP has received lots of positive feedback from our
readers, which is proof of how seriously fans take the issue of pitcher abuse.
It also reflects how limited our knowledge of this area is – from both a
baseball and a medical viewpoint. So I’m building on my original idea.

For more information on what PAP is, please read
the original article.

One potentially significant use of PAP scores is in the evaluation of managers.
Indeed, one of the ways in which a modern manager can impact his team the most
is in his handling of his pitching staff. Whether a manager coddles his
starters’ arms (or simply doesn’t trust them too deep into a ballgame), or
considers a pitch count as synonymous with a pitcher’s manhood (Dallas Green,
take a bow) differs widely between managers. So let’s take a closer look.
(All data is through July 11.)

The following column lists games played, the number of games in which the
starting pitcher threw at least 115+ or 130+ pitches; the team PAP score; the
highest pitch-count of the year; and the highest cumulative PAP scores on the
staff.

NL Pitcher Abuse Points Update
Team	Manager	PAP	G	115+	130+	Hi-Pitch	Hi-PAP
FLA	Jim Leyland	1191	89	16	6	153 (L Hernandez)	L. Hernandez 776 Sanchez 225
PHI	Terry Francona	1052	86	21	5	141 (Schilling)	Schilling 814
CHC	Jim Riggleman	978	89	20	1	136 (Je Gonzalez)	Wood 262 Clark 204
LAD	Bill Russell Glenn Hoffman (total)	760 78 838	64 26 90	16 2 18	1 0 1	136 (Nomo) 119 (Park) 136 (Nomo)	R. Martinez 294
COL	Don Baylor	835	91	17	1	134 (Kile)	Kile 368 Astacio 234
CIN	Jack McKeon	789	90	15	2	133 (Remlinger)	Remlinger 306
ATL	Bobby Cox	699	91	13	1	131 (Millwood)	Glavine 223 Millwood 201
NYM	Bobby Valentine	672	85	13	2	133 (Yoshii)	Leiter 293
MIL	Phil Garner	578	87	12	0	126 (Juden)	Juden 261
SDP	Bruce Bochy	578	91	12	0	129 (Hitchcock)	Brown 203
STL	Tony LaRussa	574	90	13	0	129 (Stottlemyre)	Stottlemyre 437
ARI	Buck Showalter	556	89	12	0	129 (Benes)	Benes 319
PIT	Gene Lamont	532	89	10	1	139 (Schmidt)	Schmidt 333
SFG	Dusty Baker	515	90	10	1	130 (Estes)	Estes 299
HOU	Larry Dierker	453	90	8	1	130 (Hampton)	Lima 200
MON	Felipe Alou	228	89	3	0	125 (C Perez)	C Perez 142

Gee, who’s that leading the National League? Although the Mariners, Yankees,
and Blue Jays have higher PAP scores in the AL, all three teams have largely
veteran staffs. Jim Leyland‘s rotation is made up of four rookies and a sophomore.
Livan Hernandez has the longest outing of the year – AND the second longest,
both coming in a span of ten days in mid-June. If a Workman’s Compensation
lawsuit is ever filed by a pitcher – and if Hernandez gets injured, there
really should be – don’t be surprised if you see Leyland’s name as a defendant.

The Phillies’ high position on this chart is due solely to the workhorse effort
being put out by Curt Schilling. Ignore his starts and the Phillies would rank
next-to-last in all of baseball, which suggests that Terry Francona is
protecting his younger arms well. Of course, you can’t ignore the fact that
Schilling has been worked harder than anyone in the National League. I know
he’s 31–and has asserted himself as one of the dominant power pitchers in all of
baseball. But Schilling had already established himself as one of the NL’s
top hurlers in 1992, and after completing 10 of just 26 starts that season, he
had a subpar 1993 and missed parts of the next three seasons with injuries,
finding his form again only last season. His imposing presence on the mound
and his don’t-give-a-damn attitude may fool people into thinking he’s a
machine, but I’m worried about his future. Tommy Greene came back once from
injury, but he’s five years into his second comeback, and it hasn’t gone well.

Please, Mr. Riggleman, please… unlike Leyland and Francona, Jim Riggleman hasn’t
picked on any one pitcher, spreading the PAPs around. But when your staff
leader is 21 and has the most promising arm of the decade, it’s not enough to
be cautious – you have to be downright paranoid. Riggleman hasn’t let Kerry Wood
crack 130 yet, but he’s thrown 128 once, 122 four times, and 121 once. Rule of
thumb, Jim: don’t let Wood start the 7th unless his pitch count is still in
double digits.

The Dodgers are the only team to fire their manager so far this season, which
might provide us an opportunity to compare two managers with the same staff to
work with, except that it isn’t the same staff. Bill Russell finished off the
job Tommy Lasorda started nearly a decade ago, running Ramon Martinez ragged
despite an already-diagnosed rotator cuff tear. For that alone he should have
been fired. Glenn Hoffman has been much less abusive of his pitchers so far,
though in fairness Martinez was already injured and Hideo Nomo out the door by
the time he took over.

The Rockies are an interesting look at how park effects might influence pitch
counts. A colleague of mine has stated that good pitchers’ parks might induce
higher PAP scores because a manager would be more inclined to leave his
starters in the game when they were pitching well. Conversely, you would
expect Rockies’ pitchers to have low PAPs, as they seem to be out of the game
by the 6th inning anyways. But the greater offense also leads to more batters
per inning, and more pitches per batter, so the effects may cancel out. In any
case, Don Baylor ranks as slightly above average in pitcher abuse, with the
main victims being veterans Darryl Kile and Pedro Astacio. Astacio has
averaged barely six innings a start, but in Colorado, that can mean a lot of
pitches. Jamey Wright has been fairly well protected (138 PAPs), despite
roughly the same number of innings per start as Astacio.

Jack McKeon has a weird tendency to pick on Mike Remlinger. Remlinger, despite
fewer innings per start than either Brett Tomko or Pete Harnisch, ranks 7th in
the NL in PAPs. Tomko (158) and Harnisch (180) are both being treated fairly
well, while rookie Scott Winchester leads all of baseball with 13 starts
without a single PAP.

Bobby Cox has the Braves in the middle of the pack, despite an incredibly
effective veteran staff. That is a huge accomplishment, one the Blue Jays, as
you will see, need to master. The stress has been spread around the staff, and
while youngster Kevin Millwood has received his share, it pales compared to the
workload endured by other youngsters around the league.

The days of Dallas Green are over in New York, and while Bobby Valentine
doesn’t baby arms, he does show some common sense. Aside from veteran Al
Leiter, no one on the staff has a PAP higher than 121. Of course, Leiter did
tear his knee up, but you can hardly blame Valentine for working Leiter a
little, given that 1) he’s 32; 2) he’s a free-agent at year’s end, and 3) he’s
been cutting hitters up all season.

Phil Garner really may have learned from Cal Eldred. Eldred, you may recall,
broke into the majors in a big way (1.79 ERA in 14 starts in 1992), but after a
league-leading 258 innings in 1993 (when he was just 25), Eldred lost his
effectiveness and ultimately required arm surgery, and is still not his
pre-injury self. Garner later admitted that he may have worked Eldred too
hard, and to his credit appears to be taking it easier on his pitchers these
days. Jeff Juden has been worked a little, which isn’t that surprising given
his lapses in control, but Scott Karl (98) and Eldred himself (115) have been
treated more gingerly.

Bruce Bochy doesn’t get much credit for managing a team in first place, but he
deserves some for resisting the temptation to over-use a largely veteran – and
largely successful – rotation. Keep in mind that behind Trevor Hoffman, they
don’t exactly have the Nasty Boys out there. I mean, how many people would
trust their leads to Dan Miceli in the 8th inning?

It’s a one-man show in St. Louis, where aside from Todd Stottlemyre, Tony LaRussa
arguably hasn’t had anyone in the rotation or on the mound long enough to abuse
with big pitch counts. This is the man that introduced baseball to the one-out
left-hander, as well as the 9-man revolving rotation in one brief experiment,
so you might not think he would have any qualms removing a starter at the first
sign of danger. Then again, the Cardinals might be in contention if Donovan
Osborne, Alan Benes, and Matt Morris hadn’t missed most of this season, so
there’s more here than meets the eye.

Buck Showalter and the rest of the Diamondback organization have received a
much-needed dose of humble pie this year. Nevertheless, Showalter deserves
credit for not overworking his staff. Ace Andy Benes has not been used out of
line with his age and experience, and young starters Jeff Suppan and Brian
Anderson have combined for just 31 PAPs. Anderson has responded with some of
the best pitching of his career.

Gene Lamont, despite his personal ties to Leyland, has proven a much gentler
handler of pitchers, although he has worked Jason Schmidt for more PAPs than
the rest of the team combined. Schmidt is only 25 and Lamont would be
well-advised to treat him as carefully as he has Jon Lieber (105) or Francisco
Cordova (45).

Dusty Baker has the luxury of one of the deepest bullpens in the game – Robb
Nen and the dearly departed Steve Reed are two of the five best relievers in
the game this year, and John Johnstone and Julian Tavarez have both been very
effective as well. So it’s not surprisng that despite veterans like Orel
Hershiser and Mark Gardner, the Giants should rank towards the bottom in PAPs.
But if Baker had treated Shawn Estes with the same restraint he has shown the
rest of the staff (like Schmidt, Estes is just 25 and has more than half his
team’s PAPs), the Giants’ best young starter might not be on the DL right now.

I’d like to take this paragraph to sing the praises of Larry Dierker, who is
probably one of the best managers in the game today. When Dierker, despite
absolutely no managerial experience, led the Astros to the division title last
year, a lot of the credit for the success of the pitching staff was attributed
to Dierker’s penchant for letting his starter pitch deep into ballgames. The
conventional wisdom appears to be completely off, however: the Astros rank
ahead of only the Expos in PAPs, as Dierker has a couple of historic
underachievers (Shane Reynolds and Mike Hampton), and two castoffs (Jose Lima
and Sean Bergman) ranking 4th in the NL in starters’ ERA. He’s turned C.J.
Nitkowski into an effective reliever, he’s making use of Scott Elarton as a
terrific long man, and he was somehow able to get a good season out of Mike
Magnante last year. Give Dierker his due: the Astros wouldn’t be headed for
their second straight postseason without him.

And finally, there is, of course, Felipe Alou, whose ability to get the most
out of his pitching staff is legendary. Carlos Perez, the most "abused" of his
pitchers, would rank 5th on the Yankees or Blue Jays. And Dustin Hermanson,
despite another good season as a converted ex-reliever, has only 25 PAPs all
year. Alou can get effective seasons out of journeymen like Anthony Telford
and Miguel Batista. Great prospects like Carl Pavano and Javier Vasquez – and
now Jeremy Powell – are in the best possible hands to mold them into top
starters.

And now a look at the AL:

AL Pitcher Abuse Points Update
Team	Manager	PAP	G	115+	130+	Hi-Pitch	Hi-PAP
SEA	Lou Piniella	1716	91	27	10	143 (Johnson)	Johnson 1014 Moyer 361 Fassero 242
TOR	Tim Johnson	1608	91	33	9	147 (Clemens)	Clemens 572 Guzman 329 Williams 320
NYY	Joe Torre	1275	84	24	4	143 (Pettite)	Pettite 476 Wells 249 O. Hernandez 230 Cone 203
ANA	Terry Collins	1152	89	20	4	146 (K. Hill)	Finley 525 Olivares 235
CLE	Mike Hargrove	1141	87	20	5	140 (Colon)	Colon 502 Wright 291 Burba 205
OAK	Art Howe	996	89	16	3	147 (Candiotti)	Candiotti 292 Haynes 207
TEX	Johnny Oates	796	90	17	2	138 (Helling)	Helling 282 Sele 255
KC	Tony Muser	678	88	11	1	132 (Belcher)	Rapp 258
BAL	Ray Miller	604	90	9	3	149 (Erickson)	Erickson 437
TB	Larry Rothschild	582	88	11	0	129 (Arrojo)	Arrojo 228
BOS	Jimy Williams	544	87	10	2	140 (P. Martinez)	P. Martinez 487
CHW	Jerry Manuel	514	89	12	0	128 (Sirotka)	Sirotka 207
DET	Buddy Bell	403	87	9	0	124 (J. Thompson)	Moehler 161
MIN	Tom Kelly	380	88	9	0	126 (Radke)	Radke 229

Ah, sweet Lou. How could we ever question your managerial skills? Your
bullpen is a mess year after year, you can’t win with the two most valuable
players in the game, and you work your starters harder than anyone in the game.
Okay, that last statement may be a little unfair, given that Randy Johnson is
a fairly unique case. Not to suggest that Johnson is the only pitcher that
Lou Piniella has picked on, but the NINE longest outings by a Mariner this year all
belong to him. But consider that Jamie Moyer – who has already had major arm
surgery in his career – has been worked harder than all but seven starters in
the AL. Kenny Cloude‘s struggles this year may be in his long-term interests,
as Piniella has only worked him for 67 PAPs all year.

It was hard to know what to expect from Tim Johnson when the season began, so
the numbers for him are particularly instructive. Basically, he’s an
arm-slagger. Only Piniella has worked his pitchers harder, and aside from the
Mariners, no other staff has even two members with over 300 PAPs, while the
Jays have three. Five different starters – the three listed above, Pat
Hentgen, and youngster Chris Carpenter – have thrown 130+ pitches in a game at
least once, and Toronto leads all of baseball with 33 starts of 115 pitches or
more. Yes, there are some good veteran pitchers on the staff – but Juan Guzman has
had injury troubles, Woody Williams is only now developing into a consistent
starter, and Hentgen has already begun to show the effects of the workload
Cito Gaston placed on him the last two seasons, as he led the AL in innings and
batters faced in both 1996 and 1997. This could be a disaster waiting to
happen.

The Yankees may be the best team of the past half-century, but all that
domination hasn’t been enough for Joe Torre to give his starters some rest.
Andy Pettitte, still only 26, has racked up 476 PAPs, and three other starters
have over 200. Of particular note is Orlando Hernandez, who has 230 PAPs in
just 5 starts! Yeah, I know he’s 28 or 32 or whatever and not your typical
rookie, but Randy Johnson is the only pitcher in all of baseball with more PAPs
per start. Does Major League Baseball have something against the Hernandez
brothers?

We know there’s more of a difference between Terry Collins and Larry Dierker
than just their intensity level. Collins is, shall we say, a demanding
manager, and that extends to his starters. Ken Hill is already on the DL, Omar
Olivares is rapidly fading, and Chuck Finley is slowly watching his great start
deteriorate. The Angels are trying to win the AL West with a 3-4-5 of Jason
Dickson (and his 6+ ERA), rookie Jarrod Washburn, and back-from-the-dead
knuckleballer Steve Sparks. And they wonder why they’re in a July swoon.

Mike Hargrove has it pretty easy in Cleveland, where no one in the division has
really challenged the Indians in four years. So why does he insist on placing
Bartolo Colon and Jaret Wright – two of the best young arms in the game – in
grave danger of arm trouble? Wright, at least, has built up to this level of
use slowly, has no injury history (well, to his jaw only), has a very strong
build, and hasn’t been used nearly as much as Colon. But Colon had arm
troubles in both 1996 and 1997 – and yet only Livan Hernandez has been worked
harder among young starters. The question is, why? What, Hargrove can’t spare
Paul Assenmacher in the 7th (or even 8th) inning? Despite the Indians’ success
the last several years, John Hart had been reluctant to give Hargrove a
long-term contract to reward that success – and he’s probably right to feel
that way.

Art Howe may want to cut his starters a little slack as the A’s try to rebuild
one of the league’s worst pitching staffs. The A’s rank 7th in the majors in
PAPs, though a lot of that use has been placed on the safest of shoulders,
veteran knuckleballer Tom Candiotti. Still, Jimmy Haynes, the A’s best young
starter and still just 25, has 207 PAPs, and Blake Stein has 153 in just 11
starts. A little more discretion could go a long way here.

Johnny Oates finally has a pair of good young starters – Rick Helling and Aaron
Sele – to go along with the Rangers’ league-leading offense. (And by the way,
give Bob Melvin some credit for getting Sele and Helling for next to nothing.)
Unlike Terry Collins, he has been reasonably gentle on his best starters;
Helling is 27 and Sele is 28, yet neither of them has reached 300 PAPs yet.
Oates’ saner handling of his starters may be a big reason why the Rangers are
now in first, and the Angels are playing catch-up.

Tony Muser has done a lot of things right since taking over as the Royals’
manager, but unlike his predecessor, he doesn’t publicly congratulate himself
for them. Among the things Muser does better than Bob Boone: he knows the
limitations of his players. The Royals rank in the middle-of-the-pack as far
as PAPs go, but two-thirds of them have gone to Pat Rapp (258) and Tim Belcher
(193), the two veterans – and both free-agents at that – that the staff relies
on to be inning sponges. But Glen Rusch and Jose Rosado, both just 23, have
been used much more reasonably, combining for only 209 PAPs. One of Muser’s
greatest achievements has been his careful handling of Rosado, starting him in
the bullpen before easing him back into the rotation, nurturing him back to
health after his future was very much in doubt at the end of last year.

It’s probably unfair to blame Ray Miller for the disaster that is the Orioles’
season this year, given that canny fans everywhere predicted their collapse
before the season began. He has done a reasonable job of protecting his
pitchers, with the exception of Scott Erickson. Some of the praise being
thrown at Erickson is ridiculous, like Peter Gammons saying "no one takes
no-hit stuff to the mound more often than Scott Erickson" (then why has he
given up over 10 hits per 9 innings?). But Erickson has been the Orioles most
consistent starter, and has resurrected a career that was on life support two
years ago. He is 30 and can handle a high workload, but Miller should never
let him throw 149 pitches in a game again.

Larry Rothschild is an ex-pitching coach, and it shows; the expansion Devil
Rays rank 5th in the AL in ERA, but sport one of the truly bad offenses of our
time. They have scored 43 runs less than any other team in all of baseball
(despite the advantage of the DH), and 69 runs fewer than any other AL team.
Rothschild has done as well as could be expected with his pitching staff;
Rolando Arrojo has been terrific, and neither he nor Tony Saunders (186), Tampa
Bay’s only two consistent starters, have been overworked very much.

Pedro Martinez has a higher percentage of his team’s PAPs (487 of 544, or 90%)
than any other starter in the game. Not that Martinez has been worked to
death: his total ranks 5th in the league, which isn’t surprising for the
defending NL Cy Young winner (and perhaps the top AL Cy Young candidate). But
Jimy Williams has done an especially good job protecting his other pitchers,
whether you’re talking about rehab case Bret Saberhagen (13) or knuckleballer
Tim Wakefield (39), who in past years has been used with considerably less
restraint. Williams’ managerial history – particularly in the stretch run –
has been pretty ugly, but so far his intelligent use of his pitching staff has
kept the Red Sox on top of the wild card chase.

The White Sox, despite ridding themselves of Terry Bevington and hiring the
well-regarded Jerry Manuel, are as underachieving as ever. But it would be
hard to pin the blame on Manuel’s handling of his pitchers. Like his former
mentor, Felipe Alou (and completely unlike his other mentor, Jim Leyland),
Manuel has been quite protective of his pitchers. Mike Sirotka, by far the
Sox’ most consistent starter, has a PAP score of 207, quite reasonable for his
age (27). I was surprised Sirotka’s score was so low; he’s tossed five
complete games, and seemed to work deep into a number of other games. The rest
of the staff has been too inexperienced (Jim Parque, Scott Eyre) or just plain
bad (Jamie Navarro, Jason Bere) to rack up high pitch counts.

The Tigers are finding out just how hard it is to become a contender, as their
pitching staff is coming along much more slowly than they hoped. But Buddy
Bell has been patient, and hasn’t worked his best starters – Justin Thompson
(130) and Brian Moehler (161) – very hard at all. Thompson, like Sirotka,
seems to throw deep into a lot of ball games, and has averaged nearly 7 innings
a start – but his overall PAP score is very low for a staff ace, a very
encouraging sign given his history of arm trouble. And under Bell’s careful
handling, Moehler is beginning to prove that he’s not John Doherty Jr. after
all – he’s actually becoming one of the better starters in the league.

And bringing up the rear in the AL are the Twins, where Tom Kelly is trying to
restore some of the faith I lost in him over the years. Brad Radke, the
undisputed ace of the staff at 25, has only been worked for 229 PAPs, which
ranks ahead of only Justin Thompson, Mike Sirotka, and Rolando Arrojo among the
top starters among AL teams (and Sirotka and Arrojo were not well-known
quantities before the season began). The rest of the staff – from youngsters
like LaTroy Hawkins (54) and Eric Milton (58) to veterans Bob Tewksbury (4) and
Mike Morgan (13) – have been handled very carefully by Kelly. The Twins
bullpen isn’t great, but it is deep, and Kelly has used that to his advantage,
particularly in bringing along the very talented Milton. It has yet to pay
real dividends in the standings, but the Twins’ rotation ERA ranks a surprising
3rd in the AL, behind only the Yankees and Indians. Give Kelly some credit for
being patient with a team that appeared to be headed nowhere (or worse yet, to
North Carolina) at the beginning of the year.