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March 13, 2012

Resident Fantasy Genius

Fantasy Tier Rankings: NL Starting Pitchers

by Derek Carty

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These are the National League starting pitcher rankings for 2012. Check out our previous closer, catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop installments.

As a reminder, five-star players are generally going to be your star-level producers that will be selected within the first couple of rounds, usually worth upward of $30. Four-star players are the next step down, worth more than $20. Three stars are worth more than $10, two stars will be in the single digits, and one star will be roster-filler and late-round fliers. Of course, this is just a general guideline. While the rankings will generally follow PECOTA, I will deviate when I feel strongly that a player will over or underperform his PECOTA projection.

I’ve also decided to give my choice for a value pick in each tier—a guy who I think will be worth more than your leaguemates do, or a guy who I believe stands a good chance of beating his PECOTA projection.

For reference, the dollar values were created by our PFM using a league format of 12 teams, 5x5 scoring, and 23-player rosters—broken down as C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9)—and $180 of the $260 budget allocated for hitters and $1 minimum salaries. A minimum of 20 games needed to be played at a position in the previous season to qualify. We’ll be providing values for both mixed leagues and AL-only/NL-only leagues. While this is the industry standard format, your own league structure may differ, in which case you can customize the PFM to your own needs.

Five Stars

Player

Team

Mixed $

AL/NL $

IP

W

ERA

WHIP

K

Roy Halladay

PHI

$29.34

$27.71

240.9

15

2.75

1.05

185

Clayton Kershaw

LAN

$20.77

$20.26

224

14

2.94

1.18

206

Cliff Lee

PHI

$25.40

$25.37

233.6

14

2.92

1.07

185

Tim Lincecum

SFN

$24.33

$23.18

207.7

13

2.64

1.11

212

As far as pitchers go, you obviously can’t go wrong with any of these guys. Perennial Cy Young contenders all, and they’ve all been relatively healthy.

Five-Star Value Pick: You’re not going to find any bargains here, but I do believe Clayton Kershaw is the best bet of the four to outperform his PECOTA. PECOTA is more pessimistic on him than the rest as a result of its heavy weighting of past seasons, projecting a 3.4 BB/9 that basically puts him back where he was in 2010. Kershaw threw a different curve in 2011, though, shifting attention from a harder-to-spot big, looping curve to a tighter curve that likely resulted in some of his control gains (3.6 BB/9 to 2.1 BB/9). I’d bet on him maintaining more of those gains than he lost.

Four Stars

Player

Team

Mixed $

AL/NL $

IP

W

ERA

WHIP

K

Cole Hamels

PHI

$19.40

$20.29

194.3

13

2.99

1.06

163

Zack Greinke

MIL

$13.09

$13.99

174

16

3.42

1.15

160

Matt Cain

SFN

$17.79

$18.78

214.4

13

3.05

1.14

161

Chris Carpenter

SLN

$14.78

$17.58

217

13

3.25

1.16

145

Stephen Strasburg

WAS

$21.80

$22.06

168

11

2.38

1.01

174

Yovani Gallardo

MIL

$13.50

$13.94

195.3

18

3.53

1.22

184

Strasburg is a trendy pick this year, and it’s easy to see why given his ridiculous stuff. Still, the Nats will limit him to 160 innings, and that’s going to push him down the list in favor of guys who may pitch 200.

Four-Star Value Pick: PECOTA’s not drinking than Greinke Kool-Aid, but I am. I expected big things from him moving from the American League to the National League last year, and aside from a few weeks that can be chalked up to bad luck, he was phenomenal. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if he winds up as a top-five pitcher in baseball this year.

Three Stars

Player

Team

Mixed $

AL/NL $

IP

W

ERA

WHIP

K

Josh Johnson

FLO

$15.16

$16.49

187.6

13

3.01

1.16

161

Ian Kennedy

ARI

$12.88

$16.39

207.7

12

3.44

1.17

169

Madison Bumgarner

SFN

$8.70

$11.39

180

11

3.38

1.19

130

Daniel Hudson

ARI

$11.82

$15.04

194.3

12

3.42

1.16

154

Adam Wainwright

SLN

$9.97

$12.71

174.2

12

3.27

1.17

127

Brandon Beachy

ATL

$7.76

$11.44

159.6

11

3.45

1.2

150

Matt Garza

CHN

$7.19

$10.80

201.6

12

3.77

1.24

157

Shaun Marcum

MIL

$10.56

$11.97

186

17

3.67

1.18

136

Ted Lilly

LAN

$9.38

$12.54

165.3

10

3.35

1.11

123

Mat Latos

CIN

$10.81

$14.22

192

12

3.47

1.18

157

Tommy Hanson

ATL

$9.19

$12.08

156

10

3.25

1.14

138

Jordan Zimmermann

WAS

$4.08

$9.21

168

10

3.8

1.22

124

Jaime Garcia

SLN

$4.08

$8.55

174

11

3.69

1.26

118

Josh Johnson and Adam Wainwright are Four-Star pitchers talent-wise, but both spent most of 2011 on the shelf, so the elevated injury risk pushes them down the list.

I’ve been asked about Brandon Beachy countless times, so here’s my opinion: I really like him. I really liked him well before the 2011 season and defended Atlanta’s choice to make him the number-five starter over Mike Minor out of spring training last year. That said, he’s not a 10 K/9 guy. The stuff isn’t there for it. He was a high-strikeout guy in the minors, though, and what he lacks in overpowering stuff he makes up for in depth and pitchability. Something in 7-8 K/9 territory sounds about right.

Marcum would be a couple spots higher if he weren’t dealing with shoulder soreness. Like Greinke, I really liked him coming over from the AL last year. Between the shoulder soreness he had last year, his (potentially injury-induced) struggles down the stretch, and shoulder issues again, I take pause. Still, he’s a very good pitcher and could be well worth the price if your leaguemates are skeptical about guys who throw 86 mph.

I discussed my dislike for Hanson a couple of weeks ago. I’ll direct you there.

Three-Star Value Pick: I grabbed Ted Lilly for $10 in LABR NL last weekend, which was a very good price. There’s nothing flashy about Lilly, his stuff is nothing to rave about, and there’s no upside, but he’ll get the job done. His fly-ball nature makes his fielding independent ERAs look worse than his actual ERAs, but he has a .270 BABIP in nearly 2,000 career innings, so those ERAs are going to be more accurate than his FIP or xFIP will be. He has also posted an ERA under 4.00 in four of the past five years.

Two Stars

Player

Team

Mixed $

AL/NL $

IP

W

ERA

WHIP

K

Ryan Dempster

CHN

$3.30

$7.82

186

10

3.92

1.29

154

Anibal Sanchez

FLO

$2.35

$6.81

174

11

3.91

1.31

136

Erik Bedard

PIT

$4.21

$7.69

126

7

3.24

1.17

115

Cory Luebke

SDN

$3.31

$8.00

168

9

3.76

1.24

122

Gio Gonzalez

WAS

$4.12

$8.01

182.7

11

3.83

1.3

159

Johan Santana

NYN

$5.98

$9.75

138

8

3.24

1.13

109

Ricky Nolasco

FLO

$7.00

$11.51

182.7

11

3.76

1.19

144

Jair Jurrjens

ATL

$4.98

$9.14

187.6

13

3.75

1.26

117

Mark Buehrle

FLO

$4.52

$8.60

194.3

13

3.84

1.25

108

Tim Hudson

ATL

$3.68

$7.83

144.9

9

3.39

1.19

81

Edinson Volquez

SDN

$5.20

$9.24

168

9

3.55

1.26

152

Chad Billingsley

LAN

$3.89

$7.84

174

10

3.67

1.29

140

Johnny Cueto

CIN

$3.81

$9.60

194.3

11

4.06

1.24

139

Tim Stauffer

SDN

$2.25

$6.52

174

10

3.9

1.25

105

Mike Minor

ATL

$1.14

$5.55

148.2

9

3.95

1.29

127

One unlucky season seems to have Dempster in everybody’s doghouse (he’s been a 21st-round pick in Mock Draft Central drafts), but bet on the comeback. He’s a very good pitcher (I also managed to grab him in LABR NL last weekend for just $9) whose peripherals were completely in line with where they’ve been over the previous three seasons. His down 2011 is nearly 100 percent attributable to bad luck. Show no hesitation in buying him.

Ricky Nolasco is the most valuable player on this list according to PECOTA, but I’m not sold. Some rudimentary analysis earlier in the offseason explains why. An ERA under 4.00 would surprise me.

Edinson Volquez’s ranking may seem aggressive. PECOTA really likes him, though, and I really like the potential of him pitching in PETCO. Yes, the walks will still be a problem, but it’s the best park in the majors for strikeouts (something he’s really good at), and even if he is walking guys, far fewer will be scoring since the home runs will be fewer and further between now that he’s moving from Great American Ball Park.

Two-Star Value Pick: Erik Bedard is about as risky as pitchers come, but he’s at least healthy to start this season, and he’s entering a favorable park and league. Whether he gives you 50 innings, 100 innings, or 200 innings, they’re going to be very high-quality innings, so he’s worth the gamble.

One Star

Player

Team

Mixed $

AL/NL $

IP

W

ERA

WHIP

K

Trevor Cahill

ARI

$1.93

$6.79

186

11

4.03

1.28

117

Wandy Rodriguez

HOU

$0.44

$5.45

174

6

4.07

1.28

133

Mike Leake

CIN

$0.10

$5.25

174

11

4.34

1.28

108

Edwin Jackson

WAS

$0.09

$4.93

187.6

11

4.21

1.34

126

Jon Niese

NYN

($3.85)

$2.03

168

9

4.54

1.38

119

Homer Bailey

CIN

($3.44)

$2.02

144

9

4.44

1.37

104

James McDonald

PIT

$0.41

$4.55

165.3

9

4.08

1.32

129

Ryan Vogelsong

SFN

$1.06

$5.24

180

10

4.01

1.33

133

Chris Capuano

LAN

($0.05)

$4.59

159.6

8

4.13

1.29

117

Vance Worley

PHI

$0.83

$5.49

168

10

4.09

1.29

114

Bud Norris

HOU

($3.54)

$1.79

168

7

4.47

1.39

144

R.A. Dickey

NYN

($0.51)

$4.63

189

9

4.11

1.32

102

A.J. Burnett

PIT

($2.62)

$2.23

121.9

6

4.16

1.31

97

Juan Nicasio

COL

($7.38)

($0.01)

114

6

4.73

1.39

75

Jhoulys Chacin

COL

($0.50)

$4.30

174

10

4.22

1.34

123

Chris Narveson

MIL

($3.01)

$1.21

136.8

12

4.55

1.37

93

Chris Volstad

CHN

($9.00)

($1.08)

136.8

7

4.86

1.42

70

Josh Collmenter

ARI

($2.51)

$2.31

129.7

7

4.1

1.31

81

Carlos Zambrano

FLO

$0.30

$4.34

144

9

3.86

1.33

111

Jeff Karstens

PIT

($3.70)

$1.78

156

9

4.46

1.32

75

I’m not entirely sure why PECOTA seems to hate Jon Niese and Homer Bailey, but I like them both as 4.00 ERA guys. They won’t blow your socks off, but they’ve got good enough stuff to be at least serviceable.

Chris Volstad is interesting in NL-only leagues or as a flyer in deep mixed leagues. Kevin Goldstein ranked him as Florida’s fifth-best talent under 25, saying, “Volstad is a fantastic sleeper selection for 2012 as he learns how to be a ground-ball pitcher. His ERA was up in 2011, but his walks were down, his strikeouts were up, and there is still a ceiling there.”

A.J. Burnett, before his injury, was extremely intriguing in NL-only leagues. Between the move out of the AL and the park change from Yankee Stadium to PNC Park (about as extreme a shift as you’ll get), he was in for a huge value spike. If you weren’t willing to chalk up his gopher-itis to bad luck last year (17 percent HR/FB), the park would have helped alleviate most of your worries. An eye injury is a bit worrisome for a pitcher, but I like Burnett’s upside enough that I was willing to gamble $3 on him in LABR NL and was still excited to get him at such a price. If he comes back in May, that’s pure profit.

Juan Nicasio pitched very well last year before succumbing to a very scary injury, but he’s reportedly looking great in camp and makes for a worthwhile deep sleeper.

One-Star Value Pick: I really like R.A. Dickey in NL-only leagues. He’s another guy that’s kind of boring without much upside, but he’s rock solid. The best knuckleballer in baseball right now (okay, I realize that’s not saying much), he controls the ball enough and wracks up enough strikeouts to be a pretty good bet for a 3.50-3.75 ERA. His .277 BABIP over the past two years is indicative of the fact that peripherals don’t tell the whole story for a knuckleballer like Dickey.

***

With over 1,600 player comments in Baseball Prospectus 2012, you might find it difficult to read through them all before draft day arrives. To help you out, I’ll point you toward some of the most insightful comments for this position. These are the guys that I’d highly recommend flipping to in your copy of the book and reading before you sit down at the draft table.

Be sure to read the BP2012 comments for these NL starters: Homer Bailey, Erik Bedard, Chad Billingsley, Matt Cain, Josh Collmenter, Yovani Gallardo, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Shaun Marcum, Bud Norris, Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Vogelsong.

19 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

tamfflcommission

Whither King Felix? Ubaldo?

Mar 13, 2012 04:00 AM
rating: 0
 
tamfflcommission

oh, National League.

It's early.

-Jeff

Mar 13, 2012 04:02 AM
rating: 2
 
Jack Thomas

Derek, will you do composite list of both NL & AL SP at some point?

Mar 13, 2012 04:18 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Yeah, I'll put one of those out :)

Mar 13, 2012 10:26 AM
 
Andrew

All else being equal, do you take the NL guy over the AL guy in mixed leagues?

Mar 13, 2012 05:36 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

All else equal, yes, but I'll take it on a case-by-case basis.

Mar 13, 2012 10:27 AM
 
CalledStrike3

Buyer Beware 4 Star - Chris Carpenter ... He was like a racehorse that gave every ounce of everything he had to get to the wire last year ... usually the next race out they "bounce" ... Carpenter threw over 280 innings including post season in 2011 and already has been diagnosed with a bulging disc this spring.

On the flip side Zack Greinke is almost ten years younger and only threw 180 innings last year. When he won his 2009 Cy Young in KC the Royals had one drawing card - Greinke. This they often left him in for 120-130 pitch outings in 90 degree Missouri heat that summer and I think he logged almost 230 innings. I can see a fully healthy bounce back this year.

Trevor Cahill - An angle I like - Arizona has had success transforming AL pitchers Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy into stud starters. Trevor Cahill was once touted more highly than both of them. He is a ground ball pitcher with pinpoint control and movement. He hit the majors a year earlier than he should have and might like his new home. It would not suprise me to see the Snakes have 3 three star pitchers this season.

Mar 13, 2012 06:52 AM
rating: 4
 
surfdent48

Volstad was also so unlucky last year I feel he will be the big upside surprise this year.

Mar 13, 2012 07:03 AM
rating: 0
 
Robotey

The difference between the 4 star and top 5 stars is so slight that it really behooves a smart shopper to try and grab a pair of #3's for $30 rather than pay $25 and get by with a one star. Hamels deserves to be in the top group. All of them will go for near $30 in NL only leagues for sheer name alone.

Mar 13, 2012 08:10 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

I agree on grabbing a couple three stars instead of a five, unless someone comes at a discount. In LABR NL, I got Hamels for $22, which I thought was too good to pass up.

Mar 13, 2012 10:29 AM
 
Robotey

Hamels at $22 is gorgeous. Especially if you're a fan of 'contract year' performances. Given how deep pitching is this year in NL (adding Gio, Cahill etc.) and how thin hitting is--losing Albert, Prince, half of Howard--I'd guess in deep NL leagues it's smart to pay premium for top tier hitting--Votto, Braun--and grab 3 good starters instead of 1 ace and some 4's and 5's. I bet there will be plenty of leagues in which some owner blows over $60 on some combination of Lincecum, C Lee, Halladay, and still finishes in bottom half of pitching due to the scrubs dragging the numbers down.

Of your 5 star, which do you deem riskiest? I've loved The Freak for years, but he seems to be relying too much on his change as his fastball has lost velocity.

Mar 13, 2012 12:16 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

As risky as those kinds of guys can be, I guess I'd say Lincecum has the most.

Mar 13, 2012 12:23 PM
 
Robotey

then again, after years of drafting, let's face it: the riskiest pitcher is the one you draft. Just ask the folks who ponied up for Josh Johnson last year.

Mar 13, 2012 12:38 PM
rating: 2
 
ddufourlogger

Cueto is a value pick, if he's going for under $10 in NL-only. He won't get you more than 5K a game, but check out his improved ERA over the last 4 years, and he went to that Luis Tiant-esque windup last year, which helped hide the ball longer. He can hit 95-96 when he needs to get some extra. He will beat his PECOTA projection here handily, and the Reds will get him wins. I'd take him over half the 3-Stars at that price.

Mar 13, 2012 10:16 AM
rating: 0
 
Robotey

Cueto is a good cheap buy. Pitchers with strong WHIPs and K's are often underestimated when measured against low ERA pitchers who don't miss bats. ERA can vary but WHIP and K's should remain consistent.

Mar 13, 2012 20:50 PM
rating: 1
 
adamsternum

Thanks for the good work as always, Derek! One question: Mat Latos seems to be ranked pretty low. Are you expecting him to do particularly poorly in the transition to Cincinnati away from Petco?

Mar 13, 2012 10:47 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

Yeah, that's a big, bad park change. Good pitcher, but there could be some struggles.

Mar 13, 2012 10:49 AM
 
tonytouch

Does Jeremy Guthrie warrant any value since he gets the opening day start? Fly ball pitcher in Coors probably not a great mix, but what about road spot starts?

Mar 23, 2012 10:17 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Derek Carty
BP staff

I actually have him as a reserve in LABR NL with that exact purpose in mind -- spot-starting him, usually on the road.

Mar 27, 2012 11:55 AM
 
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