Few baseball arguments elicit more debates than comparing players across eras.
No matter how much the numbers may suggest otherwise, a fan growing up in the
60s may never be persuaded that Barry Bonds deserves to be ranked alongside Hank
Aaron. Likewise, a fan growing up in the 90s may never fully grasp the greatness
of Stan Musial.
But bringing Aaron and Bonds fans together is child’s play compared to settling
pitcher debates.
Deciding on the Greatest Living Pitcher, for one, requires a wide range of
metrics and analysis.
While changes in ballparks, equipment and training methods have made hitters’
arguments more heated, hitter usage has remained effectively constant for nearly
100 years. Sure, batters now get 162 games instead of 154, but an everyday
player is still an everyday player, blessed with four or five at-bats a game to
make his case. Metrics like
VORP and
EqA
help adjust for most other variables.
Not so easy with pitchers. Changing usage patterns have yielded an increased
specialization of pitchers’ roles over the last 30 years. Gone are four-man
workhorse rotations, with starters pushed to complete games nearly every other
start. Now, every team carries a five-man starting staff, with six,
sometimes seven relievers behind it.
Pulling two great pitchers from different eras out of a hat, how then do we
compare Bob Gibson and Roger Clemens? Sure, we can adjust
for league averages to compare ERAs across eras. But a 2.50 ERA carries a
lot more value when spread over 300 innings instead of 200. So we’ll also have
to adjust for innings pitched by era to find our man.
Let’s start with career numbers. Here’s a chart to get us going. (See key
following chart for details)
Career (150+ IP seasons only)
NAME IP NRA RAPLUS RAA RAR RANK VALUE YEARS ------------------ ------- ----- ------ ----- ----- ------- ------- --------- YOUNG,CY 7082.1 3.14 1.432 706 1879 0.849 25.181 1891-1910 JOHNSON,WALTER 5553.0 2.98 1.511 650 1560 0.867 24.960 1908-1926 SPAHN,WARREN 5102.5 3.31 1.361 394 1208 0.866 23.492 1947-1965 MADDUX,GREG 3520.0 2.82 1.596 447 983 0.821 21.656 1987-2001 CLEMENS,ROGER 3515.4 2.64 1.704 513 1052 0.790 21.382 1986-2001 SEAVER,TOM 4671.3 3.03 1.487 496 1225 0.712 20.998 1967-1986 PERRY,GAYLORD 5231.5 3.48 1.291 300 1119 0.739 19.963 1964-1983 CARLTON,STEVE 5038.6 3.50 1.284 274 1061 0.724 19.875 1967-1987 ALEXANDER,PETE 5010.2 3.19 1.412 462 1277 0.788 19.475 1911-1928 NIEKRO,PHIL 4986.3 3.51 1.281 268 1049 0.779 19.370 1967-1986 BLYLEVEN,BERT 4682.6 3.29 1.370 368 1096 0.715 19.087 1970-1989 GROVE,LEFTY 3697.3 2.74 1.642 529 1127 0.724 18.641 1925-1940 SUTTON,DON 5195.0 3.62 1.243 215 1018 0.662 18.521 1966-1987 MATHEWSON,CHRISTY 4672.4 3.30 1.364 379 1148 0.818 17.758 1901-1915 ROBERTS,ROBIN 4313.0 3.38 1.333 301 983 0.813 17.648 1949-1965 NICHOLS,KID 5045.3 3.14 1.432 505 1343 0.801 16.595 1890-1905 JENKINS,FERGIE 4382.1 3.42 1.316 282 973 0.722 16.507 1966-1983 GIBSON,BOB 3613.0 2.99 1.505 402 974 0.735 16.384 1961-1974 RYAN,NOLAN 4812.7 3.67 1.226 176 920 0.607 16.049 1971-1992 WYNN,EARLY 4231.3 3.91 1.152 47 717 0.703 15.581 1942-1962 JOHNSON,RANDY 2661.0 2.88 1.561 321 726 0.718 14.971 1989-2001 BUNNING,JIM 3545.9 3.39 1.329 236 793 0.758 14.902 1957-1970 PALMER,JIM 3585.3 3.07 1.465 368 929 0.701 14.895 1966-1982 GLAVINE,TOM 3069.5 3.28 1.374 237 703 0.722 14.728 1988-2001 RUFFING,RED 4119.5 3.71 1.212 132 799 0.637 14.719 1925-1942 HUBBELL,CARL 3400.4 3.05 1.477 367 913 0.661 14.679 1929-1942 FELLER,BOB 3263.4 3.26 1.382 273 797 0.810 14.270 1938-1953 MORRIS,JACK 3531.1 3.69 1.220 121 668 0.738 14.154 1979-1993 NEWSOM,BOBO 3621.5 3.85 1.168 63 640 0.835 14.111 1934-1947 PLANK,EDDIE 4364.8 3.38 1.330 309 1028 0.652 14.068 1901-1916 DRYSDALE,DON 3270.3 3.34 1.345 237 749 0.853 14.012 1957-1968 MARICHAL,JUAN 3362.6 3.36 1.341 241 771 0.716 13.410 1961-1973 TANANA,FRANK 3930.2 3.78 1.191 100 703 0.585 13.176 1974-1993 DERRINGER,PAUL 3645.1 3.82 1.179 75 662 0.706 12.941 1931-1945 BROWN,KEVIN 2632.3 3.14 1.433 243 645 0.690 12.894 1989-2000 KAAT,JIM 3857.6 3.83 1.174 74 670 0.655 12.777 1961-1977 LYONS,TED 3994.7 3.66 1.230 152 799 0.559 12.727 1924-1942 WILLIS,VIC 3996.1 3.67 1.226 152 814 0.751 12.696 1898-1910 FORD,WHITEY 2812.1 3.08 1.459 285 725 0.701 12.532 1953-1965 VIOLA,FRANK 2634.8 3.43 1.310 160 563 0.818 12.484 1983-1993 FRIEND,BOB 3330.7 3.68 1.222 116 638 0.692 12.286 1952-1965 PIERCE,BILLY 3093.2 3.27 1.375 249 741 0.604 12.247 1949-1962 KOOSMAN,JERRY 3596.4 3.63 1.241 148 706 0.581 12.141 1968-1984 JACKSON,LARRY 3177.3 3.56 1.266 156 656 0.726 12.132 1955-1968 COVELESKI,STAN 2988.6 3.33 1.353 230 711 0.781 12.044 1916-1926 REUSCHEL,RICK 3208.8 3.48 1.292 179 672 0.642 11.884 1973-1989 RIXEY,EPPA 4058.9 3.86 1.166 63 718 0.580 11.841 1912-1930
NRA: RA (Runs Allowed) normalized for league and park. Measured on a scale like
ERA, with 4.50 being average in any given year.RAPLUS: RA+, which is to NRA as PRO+ is to OPS. 100 is average, any score
above 100 is better.RAA: Runs Above Average, as in the number of runs a pitcher saves his team in his career
above a league-average counterpart.RAR: Runs Above Replacement, as in the number of runs a pitcher saves a team in his career
above a replacement-level counterpart.RANK: Average percentile rank in innings pitched of the pitchers’ five peak
seasons. Suppose that 100 pitchers put up seasons of 150 or more innings pitched
every year in a given five-year period. The pitcher with the most IP gets a RANK
of 1.00, the second-highest gets a RANK of .99, third-highest gets a RANK of
.98, and so on. The lowest IP total of the 100 would get a zero.VALUE: The career value represented by the number of seasons leading the league
in IP with a league average RA+. Assigns a pitcher 1.00 for leading the league
in IP with a league average RA+ in one season (RANK = 1.00 * RA+ = 1.00 = 1.00
VALUE). For instance, leading the league in IP with an RA half of league
average is worth 2.00 VALUE. Young’s career is like 25 heavy-workload seasons of
league-average performance, or 12.5 heavy-workload seasons at half the league
RA.
OK, we’ve got some perspective now. All-time greats like Cy Young and
Walter Johnson dominate this list, with future Hall of Famers like Clemens
and Greg Maddux hovering near the top.
Let’s examine what these numbers mean.
Our first chart ranks every pitcher, living or deceased, by VALUE, derived from
RANK. We’re trying to find the Greatest Living Pitcher, but this gives you a
feel for where pitchers like Maddux and Clemens rank compared to their pitching
ancestors.
After the late Young and Johnson, Warren Spahn leads all living pitchers with a
VALUE of 23.492. By adjusting his "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain" burden
against the average workload of his era, we can more easily compare Spahn’s
performance to modern aces like Maddux and Clemens. Maddux barely edges Clemens
for the #2 spot on the active pitchers’ list, a margin slightly widened this
year.
Of course, there’s a problem here. Spahn’s career lasted 19 full seasons. It
might have lasted longer had World War II not truncated the start of his career.
Maddux, meanwhile, had pitched only 15 full seasons heading into this year.
Here we must consider what makes a pitcher great. Should longevity be a factor?
Absolutely.
But peak value should also play a starring role. If not for his six-year stretch
of dominance, Sandy Koufax would have as much claim to a Hall of Fame plaque as
Oil Can Boyd. Maybe less.
Let’s run the peak numbers and see what we get.
Top 5 years (not necessarily consecutive)
NAME IP NRA RAPLUS RAA RAR RANK VALUE PEAK5 ------------------ ------- ----- ------ ----- ----- ------- ------- --------- JOHNSON,WALTER 1749.4 2.24 2.006 354 641 0.976 10.056 1912-1918 CLEMENS,ROGER 1262.7 2.13 2.110 253 447 0.924 9.933 1986-1998 MADDUX,GREG 1228.4 2.14 2.100 245 433 0.909 9.794 1992-1998 MARTINEZ,PEDRO 1122.0 2.21 2.039 216 386 0.832 9.365 1996-2000 JOHNSON,RANDY 1197.4 2.22 2.027 229 411 0.891 9.070 1995-2001 GROVE,LEFTY 1386.7 2.32 1.937 265 490 0.914 8.893 1930-1937 HUBBELL,CARL 1512.4 2.55 1.764 248 492 0.971 8.802 1932-1936 GIBSON,BOB 1480.3 2.59 1.740 233 467 0.945 8.536 1964-1970 BROWN,KEVIN 1209.6 2.56 1.760 187 371 0.941 8.440 1996-2000 SEAVER,TOM 1391.2 2.41 1.868 242 462 0.894 8.409 1969-1977 FELLER,BOB 1630.3 2.69 1.671 240 503 0.986 8.302 1939-1947 NEWHOUSER,HAL 1495.3 2.70 1.670 221 463 0.976 8.300 1944-1949 YOUNG,CY 1958.7 2.59 1.740 322 646 0.948 8.274 1892-1904 KOUFAX,SANDY 1448.4 2.51 1.790 238 468 0.889 8.139 1961-1966 ALEXANDER,PETE 1883.6 2.78 1.621 262 570 0.991 8.104 1911-1920 MARICHAL,JUAN 1492.6 2.70 1.664 216 451 0.950 7.973 1963-1969 PALMER,JIM 1539.3 2.73 1.646 215 457 0.962 7.964 1970-1978 SPAHN,WARREN 1437.4 2.78 1.619 196 427 0.960 7.935 1947-1958 CARLTON,STEVE 1512.7 2.85 1.577 190 426 0.980 7.902 1972-1983 ROBERTS,ROBIN 1632.7 2.83 1.588 213 475 0.988 7.856 1950-1954 WALSH,ED 2017.7 2.91 1.548 255 588 0.992 7.711 1907-1912 NICHOLS,KID 1984.7 2.76 1.631 288 617 0.922 7.602 1890-1898 PERRY,GAYLORD 1612.0 2.93 1.534 190 447 0.971 7.590 1967-1974 GLAVINE,TOM 1192.3 2.79 1.613 154 334 0.931 7.551 1991-2000 MATHEWSON,CHRISTY 1724.0 2.84 1.583 230 513 0.944 7.543 1903-1912 MUSSINA,MIKE 1153.8 2.69 1.674 161 337 0.889 7.523 1992-2001 BUNNING,JIM 1458.9 2.85 1.578 182 413 0.949 7.510 1957-1967 VIOLA,FRANK 1252.4 2.77 1.626 165 357 0.912 7.472 1984-1992 STIEB,DAVE 1341.0 2.89 1.554 161 370 0.942 7.442 1980-1985 VANCE,DAZZY 1385.9 2.79 1.611 188 414 0.902 7.388 1924-1930 WALTERS,BUCKY 1464.7 2.95 1.525 173 409 0.950 7.344 1939-1944 DEAN,DIZZY 1531.0 3.01 1.494 174 423 0.974 7.316 1932-1936 SCHILLING,CURT 1216.4 2.83 1.591 154 341 0.893 7.134 1992-2001 BLYLEVEN,BERT 1402.3 2.92 1.542 167 386 0.918 7.117 1973-1989 JENKINS,FERGIE 1585.6 3.07 1.467 164 415 0.968 7.116 1968-1974 WARNEKE,LON 1363.3 2.90 1.551 169 389 0.895 7.026 1932-1941 COVELESKI,STAN 1525.3 2.97 1.517 180 428 0.918 7.011 1917-1921 DRYSDALE,DON 1483.6 3.13 1.439 144 377 0.961 7.001 1959-1965
Here, RANK is expressed as an average score for each pitcher’s top five seasons.
VALUE is the value of each pitcher’s top five seasons (RANK*RAPLUS).
PEAK5 is the range of years that contain each pitcher’s top five seasons.
You can argue the Big Train took advantage of baseball’s lily-white landscape in
imposing his will on the league – the above metrics don’t account for pre- and
post-integration performance. You can also make a great case for Walter Johnson
as the greatest pitcher of all time.
Johnson, however, is ineligible to participate in a discussion of living
pitchers, so the question remains: Who is the king of all living pitchers? Let’s
whittle out the pretenders first.
It’s not Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez. Though each can claim one
of the top peaks in history, neither has shown enough longevity to rival the very
best. Check back in 2005 or so and we’ll see how far they’ve progressed.
It’s not Steve Carlton or Tom Seaver. Both fare well in both career
and peak rankings, just not well enough.
Guys like Phil Niekro and Don Sutton lag behind the leaders by a
fair margin.
Nolan Ryan apologists have little to stand on. Ryan’s noted longevity amounted
to only the 19th all-time rank in career VALUE. You won’t find him anywhere in
the top peaks list.
We’re down to Spahn, Maddux and Clemens.
We’ll let Spahn duel with Carlton for Best Living Lefty status. Spahn’s 18th
rank in peak VALUE negates his top spot in career VALUE.
So, Maddux or Clemens?
Clemens’ peak VALUE wins by 0.139. Maddux’s career VALUE wins by 0.274. Too
close to call.
However, Clemens edges Maddux in career RA+, RAA and RAR, falling short only in
innings totals, which netted him the lower career VALUE total.
So by the slimmest of margins, we’ll take Clemens.
But with Maddux three and a half years Clemens’ junior and the Rocket’s
durability finally taking a hit this year, Maddux’s future ranking looks a
little brighter. He could pass Clemens as early as next season, or toward the
end of the duo’s careers.
Stay tuned.
Keith Woolner and Jonah Keri are authors of Baseball Prospectus.
Contact Keith by clicking here.
Contact Jonah by clicking here.
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