CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe
Strength of Schedule Report
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run... (02/13)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (02/07)
Next Column >>
Transaction Analysis: ... (02/14)
Next Article >>
Future Shock: Top 101 ... (02/13)

February 13, 2012

Transaction Analysis

A's Sneak In, Grab Cespedes

by Kevin Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.

a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Pujols to the Angels. Fielder to the Tigers. And on Monday morning, yet another mystery team struck as the Oakland Athletics agreed to a four-year, $36 million dollar deal with much-hyped Cuban import Yoenis Cespedes. Before getting into the future of the player, I’ll give two thoughts on the deal itself.

1) This was not about money; it was about years. The Marlins offered Cespedes at least an equal deal in terms of total outlay, but it would have come at a lower AAV over six years. Industry sources have indicated that Cespedes's representative, Adam Katz, told teams that his client required either an eight-to-ten-year deal or a four-year deal with free agency afterward. Oakland won this not necessarily by offering him the most money but by making him a free agent at 30.

2) While it might not seem to at first glance, this deal actually does make sense financially. Oakland’s payroll is still under $60 million, but that's not the point here; the point is that we've been conditioned by the recent developments in the free agent market. The middle-class free agent deal is dead. Players either get $200 million or they get a one-year deal. The days of commonplace four-year, $32 million signings are long gone. To be fair, many of these deals were ill-advised (we're looking at you Russ Ortiz and Julio Lugo), but the point is that while nearly all teams are out of the elite player sweepstakes, $30-plus million deals are affordable to nearly everyone; it's just that they need to be offered to the right players.

Cespedes and Oakland is a unique combination. The Cuban import has already cleared his identity and passed his drug testing, and with his visa application in the expediting process, he should be in Phoenix within the next week or two for a physical and the official announcement. That gives him a full spring training to play in an inflated offensive environment, and while there was much talk about how much time he'd need in the minor leagues to get ready (most estimates were in the 100-300 at-bat range), he's suddenly likely to break camp in the big leagues as Oakland’s everyday center fielder.

His tools are as impressive as those of anyone in the game. He has plus-plus raw power, above-average speed, the ability to play center, and a strong arm, but it's fair to anticipate significant troubles at the plate in terms of his batting average and strikeout rate. A .250 batting average might be the most realistic of expectations for Cespedes's first year, but he’ll do so much around that average that he'll still be valuable. In fact, no player in the organization is more likely to be a star, with Cespedes's peak potentially lining up with what is a hopeful window of opportunity for the A’s beginning in 2014. If that doesn't happen, he would be a very valuable trade chip.

$36 million might seem risky, but in the age of the $200 million free agent, it's a sensible deal for a player that is both big-league-ready and has some superstar potential. Barring a total bust, Cespedes will have value for Oakland in one way or another.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

11 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run... (02/13)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (02/07)
Next Column >>
Transaction Analysis: ... (02/14)
Next Article >>
Future Shock: Top 101 ... (02/13)

Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: A Few of My Favorite Dyna...
BP En Espanol: Confesiones de un falso manag...
What You Need to Know: Best of the Best
Short Relief: Our Large Retired Sons
BP Toronto
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: Half-Truths and Collision Cours...
Baseball Prospectus News: Subscription Price...

Future Shock: Top 101 Prospects
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run: The Vortices of Suck...
Premium Article Bizball: Mets Shell Game with Money May Stav...
Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: The Saves Sleeper T...
Premium Article Collateral Damage: The DL Kings: Justin Duch...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Nick Hundley, Potential Sleepe...
The BP First Take: Monday, February 13

2012-02-15 - Premium Article Future Shock: Can The Royals Take The Next S...
2012-02-14 - Premium Article Future Shock: Boston Red Sox Top 11 Prospect...
2012-02-13 - Future Shock: Top 101 Prospects
2012-02-13 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: A's Sneak In, Grab Ces...
2012-02-10 - Premium Article Future Shock: Cardinals Top 11 Prospects
2012-02-10 - BP Podcast: Episode 82: Shoot A Laser At The...
2012-02-07 - Premium Article Future Shock: Atlanta Braves Top 11 Prospect...

2012-02-17 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Notable NRI: NL Centra...
2012-02-16 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Fukudome Lands on the ...
2012-02-14 - Transaction Analysis: More on Yoenis Cespede...
2012-02-13 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: A's Sneak In, Grab Ces...
2012-02-07 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Guthrie Dealt for Hamm...
2012-02-06 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Jackson Settles for On...
2012-02-02 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Middle Reliever Mania